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AK against unknowns' small bet and small raise

  
 
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Iconoclastic
Old 03-20-2006, 01:01 AM     Post subject: AK against unknowns' small bet and small raise #1 (permalink)  
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first orbit, no reads thus far

Preflop: Hero is Button with Kd, As.
UTG raises to $1.5, 1 fold, MP1 calls $1.50, MP2 calls $1.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.50, 2 folds.

Flop: ($6.75) 7s, Ah, 4h (4 players)
UTG bets $2, MP1 raises to $6, MP2 folds, Hero ???

BTW I learned quite a bit from this hand. Let's see what you guys think
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A large cheese pizza can feed a family of four.
 
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Fnord
Old 03-20-2006, 01:11 AM #2 (permalink)  
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I would fold this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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bearing
Old 03-20-2006, 01:47 AM #3 (permalink)  

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boo you cant fold right here!

there is a possiblity that some dude raised with TT-KK and and AJ/AQ/AK/Any ace other than A7 or A4 called but maybe you dont make enough money for all the trouble of playing the hand. Im guessing thats why fnord folds. he's lazy.

If you do think theres a chance you could be winning you can always raise and find out i guess, i hate calling here and i hate folding straight away here.
Raising sucks tho cause its a lot of money on TPTK, but i still like it the best, but then again i love raising

Mp1 has nice chips and this leads me to believe he's more likely to be good than bad, thus maybe this type would call with a set and raise his weaker hands for info. maybe not
you cant handle the truth!
 
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Fnord
Old 03-20-2006, 01:52 AM #4 (permalink)  
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I'm not ready to gamble with MP1 yet. UTG probably has an under-pair or air, but it too early to peg him. I don't like playing big pots against unknowns with deep stacks with just one pair, particularly when the pot hasn't (yet) gotten out of control.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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jackvance
Old 03-20-2006, 03:24 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 Sucks without any reads.. maybe he's a maniac, maybe he's a tight player which would mean you're in trouble. But I'd just call here.
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Off5th
Old 03-20-2006, 04:53 AM #6 (permalink)  
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If everyone has been playing passive on flops up to this point and you haven't seen MP1 going to showdown with A10, AJ, AQ. There's a good chance he is holding a bigger hand then you here. Beside he knows that there is still another player waiting to act after him when he put that 3x reraise against the blind player. I'd agree with Fnord and fold here.
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Thee One
Old 03-20-2006, 12:52 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Somebody has your TPTK beat, I'm out. I'm thinking set, maybe 2 pair.

Reasoning: Honestly TPTK loses often when 2+ people in the pot show aggression. I want to do the betting and I want them to do the calling. The re-raise says he can beat the high Ace. Without a read you don't know if he is crazy or a solid player, until you do you have to treat them both as if they are solid.

The chances of a set of A's is low as you are holding one other, but the chance of AK with the PFR is there and there isn't any reason to think UTG has anything other than an A, or high PP (which you do beat). So up against only UTG I call or maybe re-raise to see if he's serious.

This is where it gets tricky though, you have MP1 who re-raises the PFR with an Ace showing and two to act behind him. What do you think he's holding? You think he's scared of that Ace? I don't think so, he's hoping he gets AK or a high PP to play with him. He's got either a set or 2-pair with the Ace paired.
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Iconoclastic
Old 03-21-2006, 05:41 AM #8 (permalink)  
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I decided to make a pot committing raise...


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UTG+1 ($7.55)
MP1 ($89.05)
MP2 ($58.15)
CO ($34)
Hero ($49.25)
SB ($9.75)
BB ($108.50)
UTG ($33.05)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Kd, As.
UTG raises to $1.5, 1 fold, MP1 calls $1.50, MP2 calls $1.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.50, 2 folds.

Flop: ($6.75) 7s, Ah, 4h (4 players)
UTG bets $2, MP1 raises to $6, MP2 folds, Hero raises to $15, UTG raises to $31.55, MP1 raises to $87.55, Hero calls $32.75 (All-In).

Turn: ($173.60) Td (3 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($173.60) 9c (3 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $173.60

Results below:
UTG has Ad Ks (one pair, aces).
MP1 has Ac 7c (two pair, aces and sevens).
Hero has Kd As (one pair, aces).
Outcome: MP1 wins $173.60.


Upon reflection I realized that if I had reraised preflop A7s would not have seen a flop. I would have folded had someone pushed over my reraise but on the Flop I would have position and good folding equity both preflop and on the flop. About half the time everyone else would fold, including the original raiser and allow me to pick up a nice pot preflop. AK should be something I am willing to go all in with should I hit TPTK on the flop but more money needs to go in Preflop.

I still would not reraise if there were no callers preflop since my fold equity preflop is much lower because my reraise would be much lower.

A fold probably would have been better in this case but it happens so infrequently and so many draws and lesser Aces were in their hand ranges, I don't think I'll get into this situation again though for the next 20k hands because I'll be reraising preflop from now on.
What's the difference between a large cheese pizza and a poker player?

A large cheese pizza can feed a family of four.
 
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AHiltz
Old 03-21-2006, 02:19 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
UTG bets $2, MP1 raises to $6, MP2 folds, Hero raises to $15, UTG raises to $31.55, MP1 raises to $87.55, Hero folds.
Fixed it for ya

You raised for info, got reraised twice, and still stuck your stack in there???!!!!???
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Renton
Old 03-21-2006, 02:33 PM #10 (permalink)  
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 You cannot play a four-way pot with AKo and expect to win. You really needed to reraise this preflop. Then you'd have folded the A7 guy and put a lot of pressure on the AK guy. If he were an aware, tight player, you might of been able to scare him enough on the flop to make him fold TPTK. But, since you cold called preflop, you didn't gain this respect. I think the only hands I'd cold call there are pairs 22-QQ and medium suited connectors.
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r8ed
Old 03-21-2006, 03:00 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AHiltz
Quote:
UTG bets $2, MP1 raises to $6, MP2 folds, Hero raises to $15, UTG raises to $31.55, MP1 raises to $87.55, Hero folds.
Fixed it for ya

You raised for info, got reraised twice, and still stuck your stack in there???!!!!???
You need a reason for raising.
Is it to build a pot? Not good here.
Is it to steal a pot? With 2 bets, probably won't work.
Is it to see where you are at? Looks like your original intention but you ignored the info.
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naturaltan
Old 03-21-2006, 05:00 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by r8ed
Quote:
Originally Posted by AHiltz
Quote:
UTG bets $2, MP1 raises to $6, MP2 folds, Hero raises to $15, UTG raises to $31.55, MP1 raises to $87.55, Hero folds.
Fixed it for ya

You raised for info, got reraised twice, and still stuck your stack in there???!!!!???
You need a reason for raising.
Is it to build a pot? Not good here.
Is it to steal a pot? With 2 bets, probably won't work.
Is it to see where you are at? Looks like your original intention but you ignored the info.
r8ed ... don't you want to know where you stand on a hand like this? It would have been better to raise preflop, but he didn't, so now he is finding out where he stands. Isn't his raise to $15 good? I think I would have done the same, but certainly bailed after that raise we reraised twice.
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r8ed
Old 03-21-2006, 05:08 PM #13 (permalink)  
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That's the point. Raise to find out if you are good. Then fold when two people tell you that you aren't. Otherwise he raised for no reason - which isn't a good reason.
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Fnord
Old 03-21-2006, 05:18 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
You cannot play a four-way pot with AKo and expect to win.
WTF?!?!

Quote:
Originally Posted by r8ed
That's the point. Raise to find out if you are good. Then fold when two people tell you that you aren't. Otherwise he raised for no reason - which isn't a good reason.
*sigh* I don't like this line any better than just making a weak/tight fold while the pot is still sort of small.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Renton
Old 03-21-2006, 05:28 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
You cannot play a four-way pot with AKo and expect to win.
WTF?!?!
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

28,661,923,135 games 103.531 secs 276,843,874 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 30.9391 % 28.67% 02.27% { AKo }
Hand 2: 21.4674 % 20.17% 01.30% { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 3: 23.9036 % 22.05% 01.85% { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 4: 23.6900 % 21.69% 02.00% { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }

To me, "expecting to win" means at least 50% equity
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Iconoclastic
Old 03-21-2006, 05:32 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AHiltz
Quote:
UTG bets $2, MP1 raises to $6, MP2 folds, Hero raises to $15, UTG raises to $31.55, MP1 raises to $87.55, Hero folds.
Fixed it for ya

You raised for info, got reraised twice, and still stuck your stack in there???!!!!???
Pokerstove

Board: Ah 4h 7s

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 26.8924 % 18.51% 08.39% { AsKd }
UTG: 49.9181 % 42.63% 07.29% { AA, 77, 44, AQs+, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, KhQh, AQo+ }
MP1: 23.1895 % 21.45% 01.74% { AA, 77, 44, A6s+, A4s, A2s, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, QhJh, A8o+, A6o, A4o } (donk factor)

I had to call $32.75 to win a pot of $133.05, which comes out to 24.6% equity...which makes it pretty much neutral EV. If I had to make that final call all over again I'd fold it but at the time this wasn't a terrible decision considering the lack of information and the average player at 50NL.
What's the difference between a large cheese pizza and a poker player?

A large cheese pizza can feed a family of four.
 
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Fnord
Old 03-21-2006, 05:44 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
You cannot play a four-way pot with AKo and expect to win.
WTF?!?!
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

28,661,923,135 games 103.531 secs 276,843,874 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 30.9391 % 28.67% 02.27% { AKo }
Hand 2: 21.4674 % 20.17% 01.30% { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 3: 23.9036 % 22.05% 01.85% { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 4: 23.6900 % 21.69% 02.00% { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }

To me, "expecting to win" means at least 50% equity
1,547,859 games 7.600 secs 203,665 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 42.6336 % 42.12% 00.51% { QQ }
Hand 2: 19.1475 % 18.35% 00.80% { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 3: 19.1299 % 18.33% 00.80% { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 4: 19.0890 % 18.30% 00.79% { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }


Hot/Cold simulations is a pretty flawed way to look as these problems with lots of money behind. The 50%+ equity multi-way is silly too. You sure as hell aren't chucking small pocket pairs at the right price and they're getting the way worst of it. If we go 4 way and win more than 1 in 4 times and don't get the worst of it in post-flop money then we should get our chips in there because we have an EDGE! You small stakes NLHE guys are spoiled in that the game doesn't punish you for passing on good edges.

Learn2Play multi-way. You know pots where you probably need to have something, sometimes have to make difficult folds when 2 people show aggression and just can't blow the other guy off his hand...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Renton
Old 03-21-2006, 05:49 PM #18 (permalink)  
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 i am not saying he didn't have an edge here. I am saying when you go to the flop in a four way raised pot, you have very little control of the hand, and very little information on the other hands.

Also, you end up playing a big pot with AKo which is obviously never a good idea. Obviously 30.93% equity in a 3:1 pot is a GREAT result in the abstract, but chances are, when you do get your entitled 30.93% of the pot, the pot is small and you chase everyone out.

With all those callers, he could have been up against pairs which might stack him, or AA and KK, which have him severely dominated. And he'd have to pay a lot more to find this out postflop than preflop.
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Fnord
Old 03-21-2006, 05:54 PM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
And he'd have to pay a lot more to find this out postflop than preflop.
I would have paid $0 post-flop to find out that my hand was in rough shape here.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Renton
Old 03-21-2006, 06:06 PM #20 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
And he'd have to pay a lot more to find this out postflop than preflop.
I would have paid $0 post-flop to find out that my hand was in rough shape here.
we'll we're not all clairvoyant like you.
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Fnord
Old 03-21-2006, 06:10 PM #21 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
And he'd have to pay a lot more to find this out postflop than preflop.
I would have paid $0 post-flop to find out that my hand was in rough shape here.
we'll we're not all clairvoyant like you.
If I was to continue with this hand, I think a call is better anyway. I want to see what's up with the PFR + weak lead. Is he itching to 3bet? If it gets called around, I want to give someone a chance to tip their hand off on the turn (which they love to do.)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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