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AJ multiway with fish, turn heat with gutshot + NFD

  
 
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daven
Old 05-28-2009, 01:01 PM     Post subject: AJ multiway with fish, turn heat with gutshot + NFD #1 (permalink)  
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 UTG+1 is an uber-fish who is a good reason to be at the table. He's like 66-4 and running like god.
CO is special, a 24-5 who runs incredibly hot over the 2k hands i have on him. He folds 70% to cbets and has aggression factor 3. SB is another loose-aggro-fish 32-10-4 but can fold post-flop.
BB is another of the 20-4 crowd but kinda fold/passive.

C-betting this board 4-way seems a waste of $. Turn I call the donk cos I have pot-odds to the FD, but after the CO raise, SB call and BB weirdness it's time for a decision. Sure, these guys may be dumb, but they aren't completely blind. Initially it looks like 13 outs call ldo, but really? I'm counting 8 clean outs, and it's likely that i'm against a flush or flush draw making it 6 or 7 = ez fold?

I folded, for what it's worth, but banked before doing so. Was i being too conservative?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($110.50)
SB ($30)
BB ($49)
UTG ($154.30)
UTG+1 ($106.15)
Hero (MP1) ($104.40)
MP2 ($54.50)
MP3 ($104.60)
CO ($93.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J, A
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1, Hero bets $4.50, 2 folds, CO calls $4.50, 1 fold, SB calls $4, BB calls $3.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($19) 7, 9, 3 (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: ($19) 8 (4 players)
SB bets $7, BB calls $7, Hero calls $7, CO raises to $29, SB calls $18.50 (All-In), BB raises to $44.50 (All-In), Hero folds, CO calls $15.50
don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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Old 05-28-2009, 01:17 PM #2 (permalink)  
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no matter what silly hands I give people you have 20% equity
the end
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daven
Old 05-28-2009, 01:27 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
no matter what silly hands I give people you have 20% equity
the end
give someone a set and someone the made flush then get back to me
don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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Old 05-28-2009, 01:38 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by daven
Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
no matter what silly hands I give people you have 20% equity
the end
give someone a set and someone the made flush then get back to me
I'm not giving them particular hands
I'm giving them ranges
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daven
Old 05-28-2009, 02:06 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 one players range is hands that are now a flush, one players range is sets, how about that?!?!? not too complex.
don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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jessyj
Old 05-28-2009, 08:53 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by daven
Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
no matter what silly hands I give people you have 20% equity
the end
give someone a set and someone the made flush then get back to me
Quote:
Originally Posted by daven
one players range is hands that are now a flush, one players range is sets, how about that?!?!? not too complex.
Was there a reason you posted if you know what they have? Figure out the equity and see if it's a good spot or not.
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Old 05-28-2009, 09:05 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by daven
one players range is hands that are now a flush, one players range is sets, how about that?!?!? not too complex.
why wouldn't both players have a set? that can never happen?
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badgers
Old 05-28-2009, 10:54 PM #8 (permalink)  
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i think it's a good fold since we don't close the action and the CO (who has shown the most strength here) nearly has a full stack and is likely to shove a large % of the time.
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Fnord
Old 05-29-2009, 04:45 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Easy fold.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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ATOTHEC101
Old 05-29-2009, 04:47 AM #10 (permalink)  
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yeah def fold.
"This sure beats Super Mario Bros.!" is my ejaculation catch phrase.
 
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Robb
Old 06-01-2009, 09:23 PM #11 (permalink)  
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 I like the hand as played. CO isn't that likely to raise here without a near-nut hand which doesn't seem likely after the flop. Nice call, nice fold.
My Operation and FTR Rethread: Stations are *sob* so hard to play against
 
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