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zook
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02-27-2007, 05:35 PM
Post subject: AA, paired board
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Villain is 29/14 over ~100 hands, mostly mined, I have no history or specific reads. What do you think of my turn check? I'm planning on c/c'ing, repping missed overs. What's your river play?
Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Holdem Ring game - Blinds: $1/$2 - 8 players - Converter
Stack sizes:
UTG: $205.55
UTG+1: $216.15
MP1: $194
MP2: $201.30
CO: $153
Button: $168.50
SB: $161.70
Hero: $404.90
Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is BB with A  A 
5 folds, Button calls, SB folds, SB folds, Hero raises to $12, Button calls.
Flop: J  5  J ($25, 2 players)
Hero bets $20, Button calls.
Turn: 4 ($65, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.
River: Q ($65, 2 players)
Hero...
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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I think you have to bet very little, it's pretty obvious this guy has a low pair and there's just no way he's going to call a normal 3/4ths pot bet. I'd bet something like 20 for very thin value.
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Bear Bones
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 70
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I don't hate a river check here if you think you might get opp to take a stab at the pot. I hate getting a check behind and missing bets though so I probably value bet this river for $25-30 without a read.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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checking is ok if opp will bet, but i dont think he does ofte enough so id lead.
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Da GOAT
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Dublin
Posts: 4,308
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i agree with iowa and miffed. i think marginal hands will just check behind usually unless opp has shown very high agg levels
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Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
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zook
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02-27-2007, 09:06 PM
Post subject: Re: AA, paired board
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#6 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Lead for 1/2-pot or less is the consensus?
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bigslikk
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Chicago
Posts: 445
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when you're ahead, bet.
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigslikk
when you're ahead, bet.
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LOL. Thanks for your incredible insight.
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Da GOAT
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Dublin
Posts: 4,308
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zook
Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigslikk
when you're ahead, bet.
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LOL. Thanks for your incredible insight. |
totally my new sig!!!! near fell of my chair, hmm dangerous for a tall guy like me.
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Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
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zook
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02-28-2007, 03:24 PM
Post subject: Re: AA, paired board
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#10 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Ok. I bet, but I bet big b/c I underrepped my hand on the turn and thought a bigger bet would look more like a bluff.
River: Q ($65, 2 players)
Hero bets $60, Button tanks for a little while and raises to $136.50 (all-in), Hero...
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Warpe
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Canuckistan
Posts: 3,905
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He slowrolled trips or caught his boat on the river, looks like. I'd say he has QQ.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,336
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I bet $40 on the river. As played, I'm not sold that it's an insta-muck.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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did he think and then push? I see AQ just being like meh ill put the rest in here.
If u made a smaller bet here this wouldn't be a problem.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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not insta muck, but need a good read to call.
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Warpe
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Canuckistan
Posts: 3,905
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
I bet $40 on the river. As played, I'm not sold that it's an insta-muck.
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...but an insta-muck if we bet $40, you're saying?
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griffey24
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02-28-2007, 08:02 PM
Post subject: Re: AA, paired board
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#16 (permalink)
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto'ish
Posts: 4,611
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zook
Ok. I bet, but I bet big b/c I underrepped my hand on the turn and thought a bigger bet would look more like a bluff.
River: Q ( $65, 2 players)
Hero bets $60, Button tanks for a little while and raises to $136.50 (all-in), Hero... |
Aren't we completely pot committed here? $76.50 to call into a $185 pot. Only have to be good here like 30% of the time.
If we had bet $40 and villain pushed, we'd need to be good here more than 40% of the time. I think we could find a fold in this spot.
I check call here pretty often to pick off bluffs, but I probably lose a lot of value from mid-pairs.
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Bear Bones
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02-28-2007, 08:43 PM
Post subject: Re: AA, paired board
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#17 (permalink)
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 70
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by griffey24
River: Q ( $65, 2 players)
Hero bets $60, Button tanks for a little while and raises to $136.50 (all-in), Hero...
Aren't we completely pot committed here? $76.50 to call into a $261 pot. Only have to be good here like 30% of the time.
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Looks like you've pretty much committed yourself to a call here with 3.4:1 pot odds. I think you've got at least 30% chance that opp has AQ and thinks it's good or puts you on missed overs and tries to bluff you off.
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pokerroomace
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Full House
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 783
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i think you should bet $30 on the river.
as played i think you should probably fold the river. i don' think AQ puts the rest of his money into the pot here. I think it would be quite a weak play to push the river with AQ. it would be a bluff with a fairly good hand. (book club). most players just flat call the river with AQ in his position. if he bets and you call - you usually have him beaten. if he bets and you fold then his AQ is usually good anyway.
most players just won't push that river with AQ.
the question is: what level of thinking is he on? (again, book club). since you don't know much about your opponent and he doesn't know much about you - betting with AQ would be quite risky on his part.
the only better hands that could fold are AA and KK. and there aren't any worse hands that will call if he has AQ.
if you induced him into making a bluffing at the pot then you must call here. the thing is i don't believe you did lead him into bluffing. in ToP it talks about inducing a bluff and states you should call if you do induce a bluff.
i don't think there are any hands you beat here except AQ and a bluff.
i think he has QJ or Jx here. i don't think he would limp AQ on the button with 29/14 stats. i don't think he would raise AQ on the river.
raising 14% of the time is quite aggressive right? and seeing 29% of flops is quite a lot. i think he might have a hand like J8 here. maybe a bit better since he did he call quite a big pf raise.
i don't think he would limp QQ or KK. he could have 44 or 55.
i fold here. there aren't many hands you can beat. and does he really think he can make you fold to a bluff? you are getting very good odds.
he has at least a J - fold. IMO
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Consensus seems to be that the turn check was ok, I should lead for less on the river (1/2-2/3 pot) and river call is meh b/c I'm getting almost 2.5:1. Results coming soon...
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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I called, villain showed KJo. Nice turn check behind, sir.
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DaNutsInYoEye
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 1,921
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What hands that you beat are calling a river bet?
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TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?
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pokerroomace
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Full House
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 783
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Qx.
a pair (not including the JJ on board).
possibly A hi.
i think a lot of pocket pairs could call the river seeing it as a bluff.
if he bets $30 i think he can get calls from a lot of pps.
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DaNutsInYoEye
What hands that you beat are calling a river bet?
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Medium pp's, AQ/KQ. I have a spewy image, at least more spewy than any other regular in this game (partly thx to hands like these) so I get looked up with crap a lot. Problem is, this guy isn't a regular, so he prob doesn't know that 
Yeah, I did not play this hand well.
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Galapogos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: The Loser's Lounge
Posts: 2,322
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I find that pause before he c/rai in generally him trying to decide for value if you will call a push or not.
I also don't think you get many calls from lesser PPs on the river, that Q made the board a lot scarier for them. I don't think AQ or KQ finds their way past the flop. Definately go for the c/c.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
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