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AA makes straight 100nl

  
 
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allabout
Old 09-03-2008, 08:32 PM     Post subject: AA makes straight 100nl #1 (permalink)  
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I"m torn on this hand. V could have so many things I don't know what my best option is. He is 22/8 so pretty wide range, including here obviously a set or a straight. He could of course have a flush, but I think it unlikely. Can I rep a flush here and get him to fold a split or better straight? Or just call (or even fold?)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($154.90)
MP2 ($140.70)
Hero (CO) ($98.70)
Button ($97.50)
SB ($190.45)
BB ($19)
UTG ($84.60)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A A
3 folds, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, SB calls $2.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($7) 3 2 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4, SB calls $4

Turn: ($15) 5 (2 players)
SB bets $10, Hero calls $10

River: ($35) K (2 players)
SB bets $20, Hero
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Deanglow
Old 09-03-2008, 09:35 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 he doesn't call with anything you beat if you raise
 
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pokerfan
Old 09-03-2008, 09:49 PM #3 (permalink)  
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i only call this river bet if villain is aggressive.
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bigspenda73
Old 09-03-2008, 10:06 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Deanglow
he doesn't call with anything you beat if you raise
right, I think OP knows it's a bluff if he raises the river, which, it actually is a sexy bluff here seeing how I doubt villain is donking the turn with a flush draw.

I think fold>shove>call

but I'm in super-fun spew mode lately it seems so take that FWIW.
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allabout
Old 09-04-2008, 12:27 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Ok, I guess fold is really the best plan. I know if he calls a shove I'm beat obviously, but thats what I did. I was really hoping to fold out a split. I thought maaaaybe he would fold a better straight. He had 66 timed down and called. God when I run bad I play even worse.
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bigspenda73
Old 09-04-2008, 01:24 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 heh, still don't hate it

It'd be hard to do a Gbucks calculation, but I would assume your hand-range for shoving the river would be primarily weighted towards flushes and then the rare made-hand bluffs.

I added in some bd club flush draws turned bluffs and AA and some AKo hands turned into bluffs:

Board: 3c 2d 4d 5c Kd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.946% 45.95% 00.00% 102 0.00 { 66 }
Hand 1: 54.054% 54.05% 00.00% 120 0.00 { AA, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AcTc, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ac7c, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ac5c, Ad5d, Ac4c, Ad4d, Ac3c, Ad3d, Ac2c, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, Kd9d, QdJd, QdTd, Qc9c, Qd9d, JdTd, Jd9d, Td9d, Td8d, 9d8d, 9c7c, 9d7d, 8d7d, 7d6d, 7d5d, AcKh, AcKs, AdKs, AhKs, AsKh }
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cardsman1992
Old 09-04-2008, 02:44 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Let's not ignore PFR, it's at least .5BB too small. I also don't know how you discount a flush from his range and call it "unlikely". I think I curse and fold the river.
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MehFU
Old 09-04-2008, 03:01 PM #8 (permalink)  
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this is a classic git situation where u need to dodge bullets like neo on crak. i think u got too cute with the "value 2/3 pot bet (4$) if ud bet pot or over bet pot ud almost certainly take it right there.

i think a six is paying off a semi bluff-flop, turn-call here with the flush draw, if he is stack him!! he is so exploitable to this kind of behaviour that u can bomb the frick out of a flush draw all day.
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bigspenda73
Old 09-04-2008, 03:02 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 zomg .5BBs

Cardsman, prove to me why PF is too small
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cardsman1992
Old 09-04-2008, 03:12 PM #10 (permalink)  
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3x BB raises are seen as fishy as far as I can tell. Standard raise in these games is $3.50 or $4. Remember I said at least. I would have made it $4.

All in all, .5BB doesn't seem like much, but .5 PF becomes an extra BB of value on the flop, and goes exponentially from there.

All I ever see with 2 and 3 BB raises PF is a ton of callers and that's not what you want with AA.
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badgers
Old 09-04-2008, 03:26 PM #11 (permalink)  
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fwiw i 3x from CO and BU at 200nl. I don't think it's that important as long as you raise 3x in LP with other hands too
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bigspenda73
Old 09-04-2008, 04:03 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cardsman1992
3x BB raises are seen as fishy as far as I can tell. Standard raise in these games is $3.50 or $4.
yea, cuz we all know how good 100nl FR regs are

you really haven't shown me a theoretical understanding of why 4x is better than 3x in LP in Full-Ring 100 or 200nl games.
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allabout
Old 09-04-2008, 04:10 PM #13 (permalink)  
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I've started raising 3x from CO and Btn with a wider range and 4x everywhere else. Sometimes I even minraise depending on the situation. I don't know that its best, but I like it for now and I've seen a lot of players that I consider good (certainly better than me) doing similar things with thier pfr. Although standard is probably never a bad choice.
I do think my flop bet was probably a little small.
I think a flush draw is unlikely (but definitely possible) just because of the line he took. If he wants to bluff at the pot w/a flush draw a more likely line would be to raise the flop, I would think. His flat of the flop lead the turn looks more like has a made a hand on the turn and didn't want me to check behind for a possible flush draw. And I guess unlikely may not be the right word, but less likely than other made hands.

Thanks for all the comments!
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nutsinho
Old 09-04-2008, 05:29 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MehFU
this is a classic git situation where u need to dodge bullets like neo on crak. i think u got too cute with the "value 2/3 pot bet (4$) if ud bet pot or over bet pot ud almost certainly take it right there.

i think a six is paying off a semi bluff-flop, turn-call here with the flush draw, if he is stack him!! he is so exploitable to this kind of behaviour that u can bomb the frick out of a flush draw all day.

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cardsman1992
Old 09-04-2008, 06:08 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
Quote:
Originally Posted by cardsman1992
3x BB raises are seen as fishy as far as I can tell. Standard raise in these games is $3.50 or $4.
yea, cuz we all know how good 100nl FR regs are

you really haven't shown me a theoretical understanding of why 4x is better than 3x in LP in Full-Ring 100 or 200nl games.
A couple of theoretical advantages to raising 4BB instead of 3BB...

1) Proper setmining threshold goes up. Based on straight odds alone, a 24BB shorty has odds at 3BB, that raises to 32BB with 4BB PFR. Implied goes up from 45BB (going by rule of 15) to 60BB.

2) Value increases. For example, assume the following HU pot 120BB effective, and remove the blinds for simplicity sake. Action is bet pot/call, bet pot/call, bet pot/call. Pot size in BB is as follows:


Preflop Flop Turn River
3x 6BB 18BB 54BB 162BB
4x 8BB 24BB 72BB 216BB

Net gain when you have the best of it is 54BB. Say you have 80% equity in the pot , you gain 43BB long term. Add the blinds back in and the pot size increases a bit.

This is an illustration and in no way implies that one individual hand be played in this manner.

Also, if I had a dollar for every time I have seen on this forum and others, "PF too small", when talking about 3BB raises, I could roll a person for $5 NL....

Maybe my thinking is off?
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jimmy44
Old 09-04-2008, 06:39 PM #16 (permalink)  
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 Actually, lately, I've been mixing my raise in LP a bit. I can go from 2BB to 4BB. Depending on the blinds and BU. For the moment it seems to work pretty well (maybe I'll say a different thing in some weeks/months).
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Miffed22001
Old 09-04-2008, 07:30 PM #17 (permalink)  
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 Opening for 3bbs should make the game play a little deeper, plus people dont 3bet as effectivly against a 3bbs opener.
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spoonitnow
Old 09-04-2008, 09:09 PM #18 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MehFU
this is a classic git situation where u need to dodge bullets like neo on crak. i think u got too cute with the "value 2/3 pot bet (4$) if ud bet pot or over bet pot ud almost certainly take it right there.

i think a six is paying off a semi bluff-flop, turn-call here with the flush draw, if he is stack him!! he is so exploitable to this kind of behaviour that u can bomb the frick out of a flush draw all day.
wat
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