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AA flush draw, villain a/i on turn

  
 
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Warpe
Old 06-05-2006, 02:15 PM     Post subject: AA flush draw, villain a/i on turn #1 (permalink)  
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Warpe is a jewel in the roughWarpe is a jewel in the roughWarpe is a jewel in the roughWarpe is a jewel in the rough
 Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $100.95
UTG+1: $82.39
Hero: $100.40
MP2: $104.10
MP3: $66.15
CO: $19
Button: $98
SB: $213.20
BB: $48.80

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP1 with A A
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises to $4, 6 folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: K Q 4 ($9.5, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $7, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: 8 ($23.5, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $20, UTG+1 raises all-in $71.39, Hero ????
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dalecooper
Old 06-05-2006, 02:58 PM #2 (permalink)  
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You're getting a hair better than 2:1 to call. Assuming you are behind and that it's not a bluff, you have at best 11 outs (two aces + nine hearts) and possibly as few as seven (if he has a made flush already; and if he has JhTh you're down to six outs). So, that puts you somewhere between 4:1 and 5.5:1 to draw out. Basically, unless you have a read that he's capable of bluffing with a worse hand here, this is a fold.

Edit: I should mention, you do have extra outs against KQ - specifically 5 more outs to make a better two pair. You would be getting sufficient odds to make the call if you knew he had KQ exactly.
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mcatdog
Old 06-05-2006, 02:59 PM #3 (permalink)  
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You really need to check behind on the turn (and call any reasonable river bet). Even though you have the ace of hearts, this is not a good board for you. As played I think you have to fold if he's a solid player who doesn't make a lot of moves.

Quote:
Edit: I should mention, you do have extra outs against KQ - specifically 5 more outs to make a better two pair. You would be getting sufficient odds to make the call if you knew he had KQ exactly.
That's true but if his range of hands includes 44 and flushes as well as KQ then you don't have close to the right odds to call this.
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Warpe
Old 06-05-2006, 03:20 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 Yeah, you guys are confirming what I thought after the fact. I really shouldn't play in the morning until I've had at least three cups of coffee...

He had 44. I called and sucked out for the flush

me = ><>
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andy-akb
Old 06-05-2006, 04:11 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcatdog
You really need to check behind on the turn (and call any reasonable river bet). Even though you have the ace of hearts, this is not a good board for you. As played I think you have to fold if he's a solid player who doesn't make a lot of moves.
So you would then call a bet on a nonheat river and raise a heart?
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