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01-17-2009, 08:45 AM
Post subject: AA considering a fold in a 3bet pot vs nitty semireg
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#1 (permalink)
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Villain is Kilmarta, I have him at 13/9/2 and he seems pretty damn nitty postflop. The 3bet gave odds for sethunting, so he can have any of the sets, particularly JJJ and 999. I don't think he'd do this with QQ, maybe KK although I assume he'd often 4bet KK. There are plenty of draws he can have, albeit a few less because I hold the Ac.
Shove? or Fold?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG+1 ($160.15)
MP1 ($103.60)
MP2 ($104.85)
MP3 ($121.45)
CO ($119.90)
Button ($99.50)
SB ($100.50)
Hero (BB) ($341.75)
UTG ($94.05)
Preflop: Hero is BB with A , A
6 folds, Button raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero raises to $11, Button calls $8
Flop: ($22.50) 5, J, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $15, Button raises to $47, Hero ?
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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I'm interested in what more of the FR regs say because there is no chance in hell I'm ever folding here.
edit: yea, never folding:
Hand 0: 43.547% 41.38% 02.17% 9012 472.50 { JJ+, 99, 55 }
Hand 1: 56.453% 54.28% 02.17% 11823 472.50 { AcAs }
2nd edit: your 3bet in no way gives odds for him to set-mine if you're 3betting light like you should be here.
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O also I should mention, I 3bet some reasonable percentage of the time but certainly not out of line. Also I don't auto-cbet, which he may or may not know, so he probly knows my range is fairly strong but not pure nuts here.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
I'm interested in what more of the FR regs say because there is no chance in hell I'm ever folding here.
edit: yea, never folding:
Hand 0: 43.547% 41.38% 02.17% 9012 472.50 { JJ+, 99, 55 }
Hand 1: 56.453% 54.28% 02.17% 11823 472.50 { AcAs }
2nd edit: your 3bet in no way gives odds for him to set-mine if you're 3betting light like you should be here.
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I think that range is innacurate... like I said, I doubt he's ever doing that with QQ and i have to discount KK due to preflop. Also there are lots of draws in his range which you haven't included. Should still be pretty close to that.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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ya, it was an extreme example to prove why I'd never fold
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bikes
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a hot damn mess
Administrator
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 2,450
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No way in hell Im folding btn vs blind.
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I damage threads that may actually benefit some posters
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grindinginnj
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Grinding In New Jersey!!
Posts: 143
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I could not fold here.
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Stackin chips and rippin lips!!
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wakeup
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Oz
Posts: 117
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
ya, it was an extreme example to prove why I'd never fold
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uhh but our equity goes down if get rid of QQ/KK
opposite of extreme i think
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Deanglow
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
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shove and don't think twice
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
Posts: 778
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by wakeup
Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
ya, it was an extreme example to prove why I'd never fold
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uhh but our equity goes down if get rid of QQ/KK
opposite of extreme i think |
Reguardless of preflop action you cant exclude QQ/KK here. Easy shove
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aka_red
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Moderator
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: house
Posts: 903
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is all-in.
granted this is not a fist pump fuck yeah get that shit in there but at this point the pot is the size of a500lbgorilla and u got dat ace ace and hudge pawt awds
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[11:11] <+bikes> bitches love your face
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TwoSmeets
Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
I'm interested in what more of the FR regs say because there is no chance in hell I'm ever folding here.
edit: yea, never folding:
Hand 0: 43.547% 41.38% 02.17% 9012 472.50 { JJ+, 99, 55 }
Hand 1: 56.453% 54.28% 02.17% 11823 472.50 { AcAs }
2nd edit: your 3bet in no way gives odds for him to set-mine if you're 3betting light like you should be here.
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I think that range is innacurate... like I said, I doubt he's ever doing that with QQ and i have to discount KK due to preflop. Also there are lots of draws in his range which you haven't included. Should still be pretty close to that. |
completely disagree you have to take Kk out of his flop range. Otherwise id call and c/bomb turn GG - he wont fold QQ or KK that he has a percentage plus this is often SC spew from players who are attacking your light 3betting on the flop.
If you think this is exclusivly a set then you need to rethink your preflop game in lp/blinds because your lines of thought are wrong IMO
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bigred
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PROFESSIONAL TROLL
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Nest of Douchebags
Posts: 2,184
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Miffed22001
Quote:
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Originally Posted by TwoSmeets
Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
I'm interested in what more of the FR regs say because there is no chance in hell I'm ever folding here.
edit: yea, never folding:
Hand 0: 43.547% 41.38% 02.17% 9012 472.50 { JJ+, 99, 55 }
Hand 1: 56.453% 54.28% 02.17% 11823 472.50 { AcAs }
2nd edit: your 3bet in no way gives odds for him to set-mine if you're 3betting light like you should be here.
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I think that range is innacurate... like I said, I doubt he's ever doing that with QQ and i have to discount KK due to preflop. Also there are lots of draws in his range which you haven't included. Should still be pretty close to that. |
completely disagree you have to take Kk out of his flop range. Otherwise id call and c/bomb turn GG - he wont fold QQ or KK that he has a percentage plus this is often SC spew from players who are attacking your light 3betting on the flop.
If you think this is exclusivly a set then you need to rethink your preflop game in lp/blinds because your lines of thought are wrong IMO |
Op is in position and has to assume your 3betting range form BB is wider than your normal 3 betting range. I'm AI.
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LOL OPERATIONS
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badgers
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02-02-2009, 06:42 PM
Post subject: Re: AA considering a fold in a 3bet pot vs nitty semireg
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#14 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TwoSmeets
The 3bet gave odds for sethunting
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only if ur range is AA/KK which is probably far from optimal esp if he thinks he has odds to setmine.
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3k post - Return of the blog!
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bikes
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a hot damn mess
Administrator
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 2,450
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If he has odds to setmine in this pot you need to 3b alot wider.
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I damage threads that may actually benefit some posters
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alllllrighty well I did a stove and against the range that I think would be raising here (8+ out draws and sets) we're about 50% which makes this an easy shove.
Reasons I still think this is close:
-pokerstove has no weighting option, and preflop I think his hands are more likely pairs than suited broadway types
-I just looked at this guy again in HEM and he raises cbets in 3bet pots about 8%, and I've never seen him showdown a hand where he raised and it wasn't the nuts.
And obv people I am 3betting light here and he doesn't ACTUALLY have odds to setmine but I said he's a bad-ish player which means all he's gonna see is 'oh it's pretty cheap, i've 13:1 or something, I call with any pair'
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v diddy
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Join Date: May 2008
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 24
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I think I shove here as well.
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blown1
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Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 3
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bet aggressive... i would of done that in this position of the game...
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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this is never 'close' in a blind battle.
If he has a small set - good - 3bet him all day long
If he has a big set (JJJ) - cooler
Anything else is lol and why you shovel it in
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mediumhand
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Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 27
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this all depends on ur 3b dynamic between you two. certain ppl always have set here and some will be doing this with draws...
i strongly disagree u have anywhere near 0.5 equity against a nit @ nl100 here...no way.
theres too much info missing in ur open to make good decision here.
if he is capable of semibluff raising here with qks etc then by all means stack off.... if u fold @ nl100 against standard nit without dynamic/history/reads(he underep pairs,semiblufs,bluff raises flops...)... no biggie. (if this was nl200..this would be hell hard to fold...)
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BankItDrew
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
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