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AA, bad flop

  
 
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bair
Old 05-05-2006, 07:37 PM     Post subject: AA, bad flop #1 (permalink)  
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villian is something like 22/7, i have him on either KK or QQ, although i think KK would push pf. very tight table, 3rd time w/ AA, first flop. im 23/9

***** Hand History for Game 4192241307 *****
$25 NL Texas Hold'em - Friday, May 05, 15:26:14 ET 2006
Table Gone South (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: McMurphy10 ( $10.40 )
Seat 4: ROBBERT999 ( $38.50 )
Seat 2: jko1986 ( $27.07 )
Seat 5: LSW528 ( $33.15 )
Seat 8: unger2000 ( $29.50 )
Seat 7: connery61 ( $12.10 )
Seat 10: webdriver711 ( $24 )
Seat 3: Maecenas ( $25.55 )
Seat 6: ChoboTTa ( $25.35 )
Seat 9: CavityFiller ( $6.45 )
webdriver711 posts small blind [$0.10].
McMurphy10 posts big blind [$0.25].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to jko1986 [ As Ad ]
jko1986 raises [$1].
Maecenas raises [$2].
ROBBERT999 folds.
LSW528 folds.
ChoboTTa folds.
connery61 folds.
unger2000 folds.
CavityFiller folds.
webdriver711 folds.
McMurphy10 folds.
jko1986 raises [$6].
Maecenas calls [$5].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Js, Qh, 7h ]
jko1986...
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GatorJH
Old 05-05-2006, 08:24 PM #2 (permalink)  
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that flop isn't that bad for your AA's as there are only 4 logical hands that you are behind, QQ, JJ, 77 and QJ. Villian re-raise and then called your 3 bet so you can probably eliminate 7's and QJ from his list of possible hands, which means you are realistically only behind against two hands.

I would lead out here with a pot sized bet and push any raise as he probably wouldn't raise if he flopped a set.
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bair
Old 05-05-2006, 08:36 PM #3 (permalink)  
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if i lead out for the pot then i might as well push...ill only have 6 behind
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GatorJH
Old 05-05-2006, 11:22 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Yes, I would be willing to get all of my chips in the middle with this hand, however I also want to get all of villian's chips in the middle.

I think with a pot size bet you get raised and/or called more often than not, however with a push you get a fold more often than a call.

Is this the wrong line to take?
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bair
Old 05-06-2006, 09:12 AM #5 (permalink)  
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he has 1 of 2 hands, KK or QQ, either way hes probably calling a push, i pushed, he showed QQ
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Pelion
Old 05-06-2006, 11:38 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GatorJH
Villian re-raise and then called your 3 bet so you can probably eliminate 7's and QJ from his list of possible hands, which means you are realistically only behind against two hands.
You just eliminated a huge chunk of his range bcause of his preflop action. You cant then turn around and say its all ok because you are only behind to 2 hands.

The point is you are behind to 2 hands here but he can only possibly hold at best AQs+, TT+. Given his stats Id say AKo,AKs, JJ+ is a far more likely range. You are still probably ahead but its alot closer than youd think.

You crush AK (8 hands), KK(6 hands). (even AK hearts only has 12 outs). (16 hands)

QQ(6 hands),JJ crush you.

So you are ahead of 14/26 hands. Also it is far more likely that QQ, JJ, and KK will want to get allin here than AK so if you face alot of aggression you likely only have about a 1/3 chance of being ahead.

I would bet out but be very cautious if I am raised, and slow down if I am called.

edit: Actually you are probably slightly better off than this. I dont think many people would reraise with JJ preflop but it is a possibility.
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