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99 vs. a reg, 50NL

  
 
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badgers
Old 01-18-2008, 05:05 PM     Post subject: 99 vs. a reg, 50NL #1 (permalink)  
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UTG is a 12/8 reg, we've tangled a lot before and he's bluff raised me on the flop in the past. Here I think most of his range is PPs, so I don't know what he's betting into me with on the river when his hand clearly has SD value. I can't imagine that he has hit the flush here, I would not expect him to be limping SCs UTG. So can we call, or is this a set too much?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($61.60)
BB ($49.25)
UTG ($53.40)
UTG+1 ($49.35)
MP1 ($12.75)
MP2 ($30.65)
CO ($30.90)
Hero ($58.35)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, 9.
UTG calls $0.50, 4 folds, Hero raises to $2.5, 2 folds, UTG calls $2.

Flop: ($5.75) 5, 8, 2 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $4.5, UTG calls $4.50.

Turn: ($14.75) T (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: ($14.75) 5 (2 players)
UTG bets $12.5, Hero.....?
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Rondavu
Old 01-18-2008, 06:45 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Bad river. Easy Fold. You only beat a bluff. Sometimes there's just too much that can beat you, and the opponent is too solid.
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Deanglow
Old 01-18-2008, 07:05 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 I would bet the turn for value and check behind river. Sometimes we value-town ourself too but it is better than facing this bet.
 
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badgers
Old 01-18-2008, 07:44 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Deanglow
I would bet the turn for value and check behind river. Sometimes we value-town ourself too but it is better than facing this bet.
I was thinking it is much better to represent a hand like AK and b/c/b to get value out of the hands like the low PPs that are almost exclusively in his range here I would have thought. With that in mind, I disagree that the river is a particularly bad card.
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pgil
Old 01-19-2008, 03:05 AM #5 (permalink)  
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is the river a last desperate attempt to get more value out of a monster, or an attempt to pick up the pot after you showed weakness on the turn? the only way to answer that is to ask yourself if your opponent is putting you on hands and if so, what hands? then you can decide what he wants that bet to accomplish. without this, it becomes much more difficult.
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pokerfan
Old 01-19-2008, 04:33 AM #6 (permalink)  
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i only call big river bet against donks or some habitual bluffers. As played, i'd fold 99 given his regular stats
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BankItDrew
Old 01-19-2008, 07:31 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 After his call on the flop, you should be looking for one more street of value for your hand. Either bet the turn and check river, or check turn and call a bet on the river. Betting the turn might be the better idea of the two because you have position and maintain control of the betting. It's rather difficult to call large bets on the river after two more streets of cards have come.

Here, you have less information than if you had bet the turn. you could term your turn bet as a blocking bet, making things easier on later streets.

I'll often check the turn in this spot as well, but only with the intention of calling nearly any bet on the river.


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