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50NL - Nut flush on paired board, passive player raises turn

  
 
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Keilah
Old 04-17-2008, 12:02 AM     Post subject: 50NL - Nut flush on paired board, passive player raises turn #1 (permalink)  
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Keilah
Villain is 20/1/1 over ~50 hands. Is the turn push a good move? I certainly wouldn't be happy folding but calling commits me if he pushes the river. The only hands I see him holding are 44/33/Qx/rarely a low flush.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP3 ($53.25)
CO ($101.25)
Button ($41.70)
SB ($44.10)
BB ($49.25)
UTG ($80.30)
UTG+1 ($49.45)
Hero ($48)
MP2 ($29.60)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, A.
2 folds, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, MP3 calls $2, 4 folds.

Flop: ($4.75) Q, 4, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $3, MP3 calls $3.

Turn: ($10.75) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $6.75, MP3 raises to $15, Hero raises to $43, MP3 calls $28.

River: ($96.75) T (2 players)

Final Pot: $96.75
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Fnord
Old 04-17-2008, 04:45 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Throw in the rare worse flush and I think you may as well shove.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.455% 55.45% 00.00% 488 0.00 { AhKh }
Hand 1: 44.545% 44.55% 00.00% 392 0.00 { 44-33, AQs, KQs, QJs, AQo, KQo }
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Miffed22001
Old 04-17-2008, 07:23 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 for me his stats suggest he isnt that good a player (20/1 seems pretty weak IMO) so i think he'd spew with a bare Queen here never mind a flush.
Hes gona have a boat a fair part of the time so i think getting it in is pretty standard
If you opponent was 12/10 or something decent i think its a much tougher decision
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Fnord
Old 04-17-2008, 08:03 AM #4 (permalink)  
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I'd need to see his passive nit donk of the year ribbon before I would even consider playing this differently online.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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