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50NL, KK on monotone flop in 3 bet pot

  
 
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pokerfan
Old 03-10-2010, 12:49 AM     Post subject: 50NL, KK on monotone flop in 3 bet pot #1 (permalink)  
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I played 50NL today and ran into this situation. Villian seems a regular running 14/10/2.7 over 360 hands with 83% fold to 3 bet and 0% 4 bet(6 chances). In 6-max forum, some member posted a similar hand and everybody said " just ship it!!" I think that his range here is much stronger(more sets combos) and my equity is probably not that great. Can i ship it and show profit?
No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (7 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($50)
UTG ($24)
MP1 ($110.50)
MP2 ($87.20)
CO ($52.50)
Button ($39.10)
SB ($50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, K
3 folds, CO bets $1.75, 2 folds, Hero raises $5, CO calls $3.75

Flop: ($11.25) Q, 2, 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $7, CO raises $17, Hero ?

Total pot: $25.25
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kdawgy80
Old 03-10-2010, 05:32 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 I smell a steal attempt that caught something. I think his range here is very wide and if it were not a monotone flop I would endorse the ship methodology, however I don't think he's really reraising here without some kind of a draw. Maybe we are looking at AQ or AT with the ace of diamonds at worst. I think there are some sooted connectors that could have hit this flop... Tough spot. I'm interested to hear what the rest of the gallery has to say...
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pokerfan
Old 03-10-2010, 03:41 PM #3 (permalink)  
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villian stats over 350 hands:
ATS: 26%
fold to 3bet: 83%
4 bet: 0%
Flop Agg Freq: 30%
If villian is capable of raising flop with TPTK without flush redraw, we should ship it without thinking twice. Otherwise, our equity against his flop raising range is probably less than 30%, right? Meh, im really torn between fold and shove.
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badgers
Old 03-10-2010, 05:34 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Just ship it.

6 chances is not a big sample. Yeah he probably has AA/QQ a fair amount here, but why can't he have AdKx or AdQx? He could even just have AQ expecting you to ship AdKx and trying to make the hand simple to play. His raise size is a bit suspicious though and it's probably weighted more towards the nuts, but I still think it's a marginal ship. If you had a bigger sample/ if you're a big nit I can see a fold, but then I wouldn't bet the flop if I was going to fold to a raise.
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daven
Old 03-10-2010, 11:06 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 seems a pretty easy fold as played. His range is AdQx, AdKd, TT, QQ+, AdJx or something right? Calling is obviously awful, so fold or shove - remembering that nits taking this line have QQ scared of flush re-draws here more than anything else.
don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

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pokerfan
Old 03-11-2010, 01:25 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by daven View Post
seems a pretty easy fold as played. His range is AdQx, AdKd, TT, QQ+, AdJx or something right? Calling is obviously awful, so fold or shove - remembering that nits taking this line have QQ scared of flush re-draws here more than anything else.
agree. I really doubt that these 50NL FR nits would raise AQ without at least flush redraw. This is an aweful spot where my equity doesnt look great against 3 sets, made flush,AdKx, and TPTK+ with flush draw or even AdJx.
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texa8
Old 03-12-2010, 02:16 AM #7 (permalink)  
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i fcken hate these kinds of spots...

fortunately you can fold, fill up your stack, and pick a better one.
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Sprayed
Old 03-12-2010, 10:45 AM #8 (permalink)  
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 Most of the time at 50NL against a nitty player on a mono board facing aggression you are behind. This hand would be different if you held Kd. I would fold and move on.
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