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50NL, combo draws facing flop heat

  
 
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pokerfan
Old 04-01-2010, 08:15 PM     Post subject: 50NL, combo draws facing flop heat #1 (permalink)  
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Mixed results in these hands. Any thoughts on how to proceed?Do you guys play these hands differently?
hand 1:villian is 13/8/2.5 regular with 4% 3bet. Its not a great flop for me but i shoved and expected to have 35-40% equity plus a tiny fold equity,right?
No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($50)
MP1 ($53.50)
MP2 ($82.05)
CO ($56.25)
Hero (Button) ($50)
SB ($40.65)
BB ($68.70)
UTG ($106.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, 8
5 folds, Hero bets $1.50, 1 fold, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.25) 9, 10, J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.25, BB raises $7.50, Hero raises $46.25 (All-In)

hand 2: villian is 18/13/2.5 regular with 4% 3bet. My min3bet is to induce his shove.
No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (7 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($53.95)
Hero (MP2) ($51.50)
CO ($83.45)
Button ($54.85)
SB ($50.25)
BB ($50.75)
UTG ($50)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 10, 9
2 folds, Hero bets $1.50, 3 folds, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.25) 4, 3, 10 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.25, BB raises $7.15, Hero raises $13.75, BB raises $42.10 (All-In), Hero calls $33.25

hand 3: villian is 25/3/1 with 1% 3bet over 300 hands.
No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($51.25)
UTG ($7.95)
UTG+1 ($52.70)
MP1 ($25.55)
MP2 ($29.70)
CO ($49)
Button ($62)
SB ($20.95)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, 6
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, 3 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($1.25) A, Q, J (2 players)
Hero bets $1, MP2 raises $4, Hero raises $49.75 (All-In), MP2 calls $25.20 (All-In)
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caddie444
Old 04-01-2010, 10:57 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 *It would be great to have the c/r % for these villains

Hand 1: He's never folding anything that he's c/r'ing. Your 2 options are to bet/get it in or to check behind. My style is to check behind b/c this flop hits his range pretty good and he'll have a hard time not losing a bunch of money if he does have a hand and we make ours since we're IP.

Hand 2: C-betting here is different than hand 1 b/c you likely have the best hand. When he c/r's, I'm just calling and folding turn unless we hit our draw unless we have a read that he c/r's light. Also, Min 3B'ing to induce shoving with this hand is lol. Why are you giving him perceived FE and amazing odds to chase if he does have like the A high flush draw?

Hand 3: Someone with a 1% 3Bet isn't raising this flop and then folding. I c/c this flop all day.

It seems to me that you are overestimating Fold Equity and have the habit of getting it in vs strong ranges with draws that are certainly a dog to these ranges


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badgers
Old 04-02-2010, 04:10 AM #3 (permalink)  
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1) I actually really like a flop check behind here, although that may be results oriented in that villain c/red you and put you in a shitty spot here. Still i think it's a pretty cool spot to check back since he won't expect you to turn up w/ a flush and you can still easily rep hands like AJ/KJ which checked back flop. As played shipping is bad and i think you have to call his flop raise, although it can't be too far away from a fold.

2) Yeah seems fine. I think he shoves other FDs enough to make this the best line, though I would 3bet to a little more to discourage him from calling w/ FDs.

3) Lead is bad since you're not gonna have better than Ax a lot, as played just call and c/f a lot of turns.
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pokerfan
Old 04-03-2010, 12:27 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Yeah,It sounds way too aggressive . I was super monkey tilted in the heat of the moment although i did win 2 of them.
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wakeup
Old 04-06-2010, 03:26 PM #5 (permalink)  
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wtf how can u not bet these? we have monster equity and get value from a tonne of worse
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Deanglow
Old 04-06-2010, 07:07 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 hand 1 very easy call of the checkraise.
hand 2 same
hand 3 it isn't terrible against a half-stacker but I'd probably call flop raise in the moment
 
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rpm
Old 04-07-2010, 11:04 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 hand one is interesting because there are few flush draws for villain to have because of your Ah. i punched some hands into stove, this is a rough estimate for the flop c/r, giving him all straights, sets, two pairs, and a few flush draws:


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.553% 44.14% 02.41% 29718 1621.50 { Ah8h }
Hand 1: 53.447% 51.04% 02.41% 34359 1621.50 { QQ-88, KQs, KhTh, QhTh, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 7h6h, 6h5h, KQo, JTo, T9o, 98o }

so shoving isn't bad here i don't think because you may fold out some hands which are technically "correct" in calling your shove (in terms of FTOP) ie two pair hands that he may fold to extreme heat:

Board: 9h Ts Jh
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.091% 48.18% 00.91% 954 18.00 { Ah8h }
Hand 1: 50.909% 50.00% 00.91% 990 18.00 { JTs }

if you smooth and the turn bricks your equity is pretty much chopped in half, which makes me lean toward playing aggressive, however, he may fold the lower SC heart draws to your shove. you really want these hands to continue as you get his stack a huge % of the time when you both complete. so now i'm leaning towards a call, even though most of your outs are scare cards for a decent part of villain's range, you have so much equity you dont need implied odds so much, plus you stack him if he does have XhXh. in conclusion, this small analysis has taken me ages and i honestly dont know whether calling or 3betting is better.
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