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50NL, big pot facing turn CRAI

  
 
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pokerfan
Old 08-22-2010, 06:05 PM     Post subject: 50NL, big pot facing turn CRAI #1 (permalink)  
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I havent played much recently and been pretty busy with other things. villian is 31/20/2.2 with 4% 3bet over 100 hands. BT is a TAG reg.
On a previous hand, villian bets small 3 streets with TT as pfr on 33836 board when checked to and owns me. This tme around, the pot odds is good but his range on the turn seems pretty strong 3 way. Honestly,I hate to fold the top of my range vs a loose player in a big pot especially when these players tend to overestimate their hand strength a lot.
No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($62.55)
BB ($28.35)
UTG ($50)
UTG+1 ($107)
MP1 ($74.35)
Hero (MP2) ($50)
MP3 ($29.25)
CO ($52.10)
Button ($45)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, A
3 folds, Hero bets $2, 2 folds, Button calls $2, SB calls $1.75, 1 fold

Flop: ($6.50) 8, 6, K (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4.50, Button calls $4.50, SB calls $4.50

Turn: ($20) 9 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $13, 1 fold, SB raises $56.05 (All-In), Hero ?
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Raoni_Poker
Old 08-22-2010, 08:02 PM #2 (permalink)  
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This hand is sick...
His overcall on the flop is strong...I wonder if he could be drawing to something here (unlikely).

He would certainly not overcall 3 handed and push after your second barrel with air (unless he is tilted or something). 66 and 88 makes sense. With KK he would have raised PF. I dont think a 99 would over call the flop bet and I dont think he has a made straight on the turn (T7, 75).

Some flush draws can be in his range, but he had to hit the flop somehow to overcall the flop bet as a runner-runner draw is very weak. A8cc, A6cc...with 86cc he would probably check raise the flop.
K9 is a possibility (he is a loose player and he got good odds to call PF) and with this hand he is scared of many river cards (paired boards or clubs).

I would instinctively fold this because his range seems to be ahead of your hand.
 
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badgers
Old 08-23-2010, 12:34 AM #3 (permalink)  
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I would fold and I don't think it's particularly close. Why do you think this is the top of your range?
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pokerfan
Old 08-23-2010, 01:22 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by badgers View Post
I would fold and I don't think it's particularly close. Why do you think this is the top of your range?
vs a loose aggressive 30/20 50nl player,no?
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daven
Old 08-23-2010, 07:29 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 first response was snap-fold, but on second glance I think his range is AK and hands that beat you, i don't think you have odds for the call quite cos he won't play AK like this pre-flop often enough.

He rarely has 77 or KQ here
make your hand 66 and this becomes a call
don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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badgers
Old 08-23-2010, 09:36 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerfan View Post
vs a loose aggressive 30/20 50nl player,no?
over only 100 hands.. This could very easily be a reg with those stats over this sample. Also if he's a fish he probably think you have AK because you raised preflop ldo.
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pokerfan
Old 08-23-2010, 07:10 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Thanks, guys. I was super weaksauce and folded as played. Anyways,I will be back and post more hands after my vegas&macau trip.
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oskar
Old 08-25-2010, 10:43 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 66, 88, 99 are most likely imo. Don't count on people raising sets mw. Some 8xss, 6xss combos.
I fold, and it's not particularly painful.
The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
 
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mfbkevin35
Old 09-03-2010, 05:23 AM #9 (permalink)  
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 fold..but slight chance he might have 77
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ZwiFT
Old 09-14-2010, 11:14 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mfbkevin35 View Post
fold..but slight chance he might have 77
This thought process is exactly what makes people lose money, dont trick your brain into something that's not real
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