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50NL: A6 flops 2pr but zomg there's a flush on da turn

  
 
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d0zer
Old 12-18-2008, 02:13 AM     Post subject: 50NL: A6 flops 2pr but zomg there's a flush on da turn #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain 24/12 over 25 hands...virtually unknown

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG elChipLead3r ($50.00)
UTG+1 HonamLoveYou ($55.90)
MP1 PRO71121 ($65.70)
MP2 don1117 ($12.55)
CO G'Flame ($68.90)
BTN Hero ($52.30)
SB italia1000 ($27.85)
BB BreweRonnie ($84.30)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 8 players) Hero is BTN
4 folds, G'Flame calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.50, 2 folds, G'Flame calls $2

Flop: ($5.75, 2 players)
G'Flame checks, Hero bets $4, G'Flame calls $4

Turn: ($13.75, 2 players)
G'Flame bets $10.50, Hero calls $10.50

River: ($34.75, 2 players)
G'Flame bets $20.50, $20.50 to Hero ($35.30)?

Gah. Folding the turn seemed too nitty, but his line/bet sizing really screamed flush. Seems like the river is a fold, yeah -- but what's the point of calling turn if I'm just hoping to fill up, or on the off chance villain is bluffing turn & will give up rivar.

Reads woulda been sooooo nice

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ATOTHEC101
Old 12-18-2008, 06:48 AM #2 (permalink)  
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meh played fine, fold river.
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BankItDrew
Old 12-18-2008, 07:25 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 we could be way ahead, way behind, or barely ahead. with villain leading like this, it's much more likely that the 'way ahead' option is out the window.

to be honest, this looks like either or more than anything else, for the following reasons:
A set raises flop more frequently than call. A flush is usually way ahead and would not show massive strength on turn after a scary card on this street. A straight, is the most vulnerable hand in this spot for villain because you could have any spade... hence the large bet.

This line just screams protection.

I wish I had this much time to think through every turn decision because I'm leaning towards fold but would be reluctant during play.


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bigred
Old 12-18-2008, 01:06 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 ZOMG THERE'S A STRAIGHT ON THE RIVER

fold
LOL OPERATIONS
 
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Deanglow
Old 12-18-2008, 03:49 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 nah no way i fold
 
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bigred
Old 12-18-2008, 05:26 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Deanglow
nah no way i fold
How do you not fold? We're way behind villain's ranger imo.
LOL OPERATIONS
 
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Deanglow
Old 12-18-2008, 08:52 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deanglow
nah no way i fold
How do you not fold? We're way behind villain's ranger imo.
Me saying I wouldn't fold implies that I think we are not behind his range. Although I don't like his betsizing, I'd still call
 
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d0zer
Old 12-18-2008, 08:57 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Deanglow
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deanglow
nah no way i fold
How do you not fold? We're way behind villain's ranger imo.
Me saying I wouldn't fold implies that I think we are not behind his range. Although I don't like his betsizing, I'd still call
I think the flush completing on the turn scares most villains at 50NL away from bet sizing like this with Ax & low 2pr hands, and in a lot of cases, from even leading the turn with a worse 2pr or weaker...
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stickonadog
Old 12-19-2008, 12:35 AM #9 (permalink)  

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Deanglow
nah no way i fold
Agreed. Bet size is weird; i think we're ahead.
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Robb
Old 12-19-2008, 01:48 AM #10 (permalink)  
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 I think the decision is pretty damn close, though I'd probably fold river w/o read.
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ZwiFT
Old 12-19-2008, 01:53 AM #11 (permalink)  
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easy call, your redline will go down if you fold
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