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50 NL: JJ Overpair vs. UTG TAG

  
 
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Cougar
Old 03-16-2010, 01:19 PM     Post subject: 50 NL: JJ Overpair vs. UTG TAG #1 (permalink)  
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Cougar
Villain is 14/12/Inf over 50 hands with 6% 3-Bet (small sample)

Villain probably has a tight range being UTG but probably capable of barreling turns given the aggression factor, my estimated range on turn would be 88+, AQo+, AQs+.

Questions
1.) Following is my Turn Range Analysis. What is the best play, do we call turn and fold to any sizeable river bet?

88+, AQo+, AQs+: 54% Equity
88+, AKo, AKs: 44% Equity
88+: 22% Equity
88,99,QQ+: 5% Equity

2.) A call here really seems to depend on whether AQ and AK are in villain's range, is that reasonable?

3.) Is there any merit to raise the flop or turn to represent a set/2pair to try and fold out QQ+ or is that just spew?

Thanks!!

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP2 ($50)
CO ($51.75)
Button ($54.30)
Hero (SB) ($78.05)
BB ($41.25)
UTG ($61)
MP1 ($50)
Preflop: Hero is SB with J, J
UTG bets $2, 4 folds, Hero calls $1.75, 1 fold
Flop: ($4.50) 3, 8, 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50
Turn: ($11.50) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $8, Hero ???
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Renton
Old 03-19-2010, 09:51 PM #2 (permalink)  
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