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> 50% draw V.S. made hand

  
 
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EricE
Old 05-25-2006, 04:42 PM     Post subject: > 50% draw V.S. made hand #1 (permalink)  
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EricE
Opponent is solid SLAG

$100 table.

Here is a situation I don’t quite understand because it seems like both me and opponent have solid reasons for getting it all in. I have a made straight and he as a good draw to split or outdraw me.
If you are opponent and put me on a straight, are you willing to put it all in on the flop?

I am in the CO after just posting the sit down blind. I have :Ks: I have a full stack.
Opponent has :Kh: in the BB. I don’t remember the exact value of but it doesn’t come into play. His stack covers me.
2nd Opponent has only half a stack and is in HJ with unknown hand.

PF action is nill, limped pot.

Flop QJT, two hearts.
It is checked to me and I bet the pot for $4. BB raises to $11 and HJ calls. I reraise to $45 which puts HJ all in except for ~$1.5. My hope is that BB calls and HJ goes AI so I can push. Both call.

So, first question, If you are the one with the OESD and the Flush draw against an (extreamly) likely made hand, are you willing to call an AI if someone pushes for 100bb?

Turn comes

Now I am stuck, I have put in half my stack and I can’t see folding to any pressure now. Especially since BB is good enough to rep the flush here and push me out even if he doesn’t have it. So it seems like a blocking bet is in order. But how much? Any bet commits me. Push, check? What is your move?
Stakes: Playing $0.10/$0.25 NL
 
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dalecooper
Old 05-25-2006, 04:58 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Well - you didn't raise pre-flop so I would discount AK as unlikely. I could easily put you on two pair, K9, or 89 here. Sets aren't too likely since you'd have to limp a pair TT+. Based on your hand range as I see it:

Board: Qh Jh Ts
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.8558 % 46.27% 02.58% { Kh5h }
Hand 2: 51.1442 % 48.56% 02.58% { K9s, QTs+, JTs, 98s, K9o, QTo+, JTo, 98o }

So yeah, I'd put all the money in. Once the pot gets substantial he's pretty much committed here against whatever. He's got 40% equity even against the worst case scenarios like AK and QQ. The worst possible would be AhKx (35% equity), and the pot is ballooning quickly into a three way all in... how can he find a fold?
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dalecooper
Old 05-25-2006, 05:03 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Regarding your other question, you can push or check/call. I don't think you can fold although there's a good chance you're losing. Pot's $150-ish and you have $50 left... that's not something you can lay down without an iron-clad read on the villain.
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Miffed22001
Old 05-25-2006, 05:27 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 id have just pushed
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stuck
Old 05-26-2006, 05:16 AM     Post subject: Re: > 50% draw V.S. made hand #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EricE
I reraise to $45 which puts HJ all in except for ~$1.5. My hope is that BB calls and HJ goes AI so I can push.
Your thinking is off here. If HJ raises the last $1.50 AI, it will not be a full raise and you will not have the option of re-raising, only calling or folding.
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krimson
Old 05-26-2006, 12:15 PM #6 (permalink)  
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krimson
Quote:
Originally Posted by dalecooper
He's got 40% equity even against the worst case scenarios like AK and QQ. The worst possible would be AhKx (35% equity)
Nope. To be pedantic the worst case (against a single opponent) is pair + nut flush draw, which is more than 80% favourite against K5s. If the third player holds AK then K5s is drawing next to dead (two outs to split, and there are redraws to flush/boat, so K5s has maybe 4% equity).
But I admit that these extremes don't make much difference to how the hand should be played.
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dalecooper
Old 05-26-2006, 01:03 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by krimson
Nope. To be pedantic the worst case (against a single opponent) is pair + nut flush draw, which is more than 80% favourite against K5s. If the third player holds AK then K5s is drawing next to dead (two outs to split, and there are redraws to flush/boat, so K5s has maybe 4% equity).
But I admit that these extremes don't make much difference to how the hand should be played.
You're right, I overlooked the pair + draw possibility.
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EricE
Old 05-26-2006, 04:08 PM #8 (permalink)  
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EricE
The thing is, I think we can totaly discount anyone of the two other people in the hand having AK. Both of them would have raised PF if they had it. I suppose someone could have AQs AJs with the nut flush draw though which the K5s might want to consider.

All in all the situation sucked for me as I felt it was correct to get it all in. I also think it was correct for K5s to get it all in.

Turn was checked to me and I bet $25, BB minraised putting me all in but $4. I called and stuck the rest in on the river. I don't even remember what the HJ had but I think it was two pair, QJ or something.

As to not being able to reraise if the HJ pushed on the flop. I don't think it works that way on my site. Many times I have used this tactic to get people to call big bets in two chunks.
Stakes: Playing $0.10/$0.25 NL
 
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