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400nl - sick spot I got myself into

  
 
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Micro2Macro
Old 07-10-2010, 08:26 PM     Post subject: 400nl - sick spot I got myself into #1 (permalink)  
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 villain is 13/11 or so 35% ats over a smallish 250 hand sample. he is a big winner up to 2knl or so I think so I imagine he plays pretty rational/solid.

he didn't think very long before flatting my flop raise.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($408)
Hero (SB) ($461.85)
BB ($484.45)
UTG ($229.70)
UTG+1 ($214.20)
MP1 ($567.80)
MP2 ($172)
CO ($443.80)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, J
4 folds, CO bets $8, 1 fold, Hero calls $6, 1 fold

Flop: ($20) 4, 10, K (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $12, Hero raises to $38, CO calls $26

Turn: ($96) A (2 players)
Hero bets $62, CO raises to $176 - $221 behind effective
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badgers
Old 07-10-2010, 11:37 PM #2 (permalink)  
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man this sucks so much......

I think fold, but fuck your life, seriously. I just don't think he's bluffing that often.. I guess he could be doing this with AcX but if he thought you were FOS enough to make shoving good he could profitably call, and there's no way he plays a set/2 pairs like this.

no air+ actually lots of flush combos makes this a pretty clear fold actually. You are dead here a lot.
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ZwiFT
Old 07-11-2010, 01:20 PM #3 (permalink)  
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is this a std flat of yours pf?
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pocketfours
Old 07-11-2010, 02:43 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 Fold. Pre def std.
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Outlaw
Old 07-12-2010, 06:27 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Crazy hand.. the more I look at it the more it looks like a fold, but holy crap.. I probably couldn't
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Deanglow
Old 07-18-2010, 09:45 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 Would never checkraise the flop but i'd fold pretty easily now
 
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fakedecoy
Old 07-22-2010, 05:52 AM #7 (permalink)  
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This is a very intriguing hand to me.

A min raise preflop always makes me suspicious of suited connectors, low pocket pair, or a bad steal attempt. With his stats and actions I'd rule out the pure steal or low pocket pair. He could have medium suited connectors for the flush. In that case, on the flop your c/r got him a little worried if he has a low flush so he wanted to see another card, or he wanted to make sure to keep you in if his flush was high enough, and on the turn in either case it was no time for him to slow play.

If villain were to have a set, would it be a bad move for villain to try to get to the river (and the SD if another suited card doesn't hit the river) as cheaply as possible given hero's possible made flush? Or should villain assume that hero doesn't have a made flush?
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iain212
Old 07-26-2010, 04:56 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 AK with A clubs?
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Da GOAT
Old 07-28-2010, 02:54 PM #9 (permalink)  
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does anyone think he could be raising 2 pair now on turn with Ac maybe.
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sk8r_daniel
Old 07-28-2010, 06:16 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Da GOAT View Post
does anyone think he could be raising 2 pair now on turn with Ac maybe.
Maybe..but it would be a small part of his range and he still has 13 outs against you.

I am more interested in the reasons for check raising this flop. I usually check raise strong draws in spots like these, but I'm not quite sure this draw has all that much equity, and alot of hands are still going to call you.
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Micro2Macro
Old 07-28-2010, 08:07 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Da GOAT View Post
does anyone think he could be raising 2 pair now on turn with Ac maybe.
He could but I don't think he would because it wouldn't accomplish anything against my range. If I happen to have a hand like AJ here there's a better chance of me value owning myself if he leaves me the option to fire the river, and if I have a set/flush/straight he's just getting it in behind while folding out all my air.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sk8r_daniel View Post
Maybe..but it would be a small part of his range and he still has 13 outs against you.

I am more interested in the reasons for check raising this flop. I usually check raise strong draws in spots like these, but I'm not quite sure this draw has all that much equity, and alot of hands are still going to call you.
his overall cbet is > 80% which is what lead me towards c/r though if he's checking back this flop often I think leading is better.
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

Check out my blog here!

"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"

http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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caddie444
Old 07-28-2010, 08:38 PM #12 (permalink)  
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 The following range is totally optimistic as I think the frequency of which he plays sets/AK/Acx's like this needs to be weighted less than his nut-flushes/flushes:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,672 games 0.001 secs 1,672,000 games/sec

Board: Kc Tc 4c Ah
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.261% 62.14% 00.12% 1039 2.00 { KK+, TT, 44, AKs, AcQc, AcJc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac3c, Ac2c, QcJc, Qc9c, Qc8c, Jc9c, Jc8c, Jc7c, 9c8c, 8c7c, 7c6c, 6c5c, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs }
Hand 1: 37.739% 37.62% 00.12% 629 2.00 { QhJh }

If you shove you're getting $896:$338 which means you need about 37% equity since I don't see him ever folding.

It's close but once you weight the range accordingly to flushes/nut flushes it seems like a fold. If I had to guess I'd say you prob only have like 30% equity in this spot vs his weighted range.


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