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400nl - no value - agree/disagree?

  
 
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-28-2010, 09:31 PM     Post subject: 400nl - no value - agree/disagree? #1 (permalink)  
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 I believe there is no value in betting this river, though I am certainly open to someone disagreeing.

If you disagree, provide me with an analysis other than 'omg 2 pair in a 3bet pot pair bet'


villain who called squeeze is like 38/10. he seems like your standard 'weak tight live fish' who decided to load up a few hundred bucks and play some pokers. his fold to cbet is 75% and he has yet to go to showdown. he has also shown no signs of spazzing out or aggression period.

river looks like a check:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($549.05)
MP2 ($400)
MP3 ($533.50)
CO ($563.25)
Hero (Button) ($497)
SB ($394)
BB ($420.40)
UTG ($1161)
UTG+1 ($442.40)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, 6
2 folds, MP1 bets $12, 1 fold, MP3 calls $12, 1 fold, Hero raises to $48, 3 folds, MP3 calls $36

Flop: ($114) 6, 5, Q (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $72, MP3 calls $72

Turn: ($258) A (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero checks

River: ($258) K (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero checks
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aka_red
Old 02-28-2010, 10:38 PM #2 (permalink)  
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wat
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-28-2010, 11:38 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 for value betting to be +EV on the river we need to beat 50% of his calling range assuming he never bluff raises which is probably a fair assumption.

<m2m> KQ/AQ = 15
<m2m> he could have like
<m2m> any Ax with a spade
<m2m> A2,A3,A4,A7,A8,A9,AT,AJ for 8 combos we can get value from
<m2m> we could maybe say he donks KQ/AQ
<m2m> 50% of the time and c/c or c/r 50%
<m2m> which would make value bettting sliiightly +EV
<m2m> tho really thin operating on that assumption

follow?
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bikes
Old 02-28-2010, 11:50 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 wow wtf. bet the turn and certainly bet the river.
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Micro2Macro
Old 03-01-2010, 12:02 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Micro2Macro View Post
If you disagree, provide me with an analysis other than 'omg 2 pair in a 3bet pot pair bet'
.
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Jason
Old 03-01-2010, 12:18 AM #6 (permalink)  
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 Yeah, I think we probably have enough money in the pot for this action. On the other hand, if he's not likely to raise you AND if he's not likely to let go of whatever hand he keeps passively calling with that we beat, a bet might not be bad either.

I see players like this taking a line with really strong hands and really mediocre hands like JJ wanting to get to SD plus draws. So, I don't think it's a big deal either way checking or betting. It's really about knowing your villain.
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Micro2Macro
Old 03-01-2010, 12:51 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 how stupid of me not to consider gay betting the river
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speedcake
Old 03-01-2010, 01:48 AM #8 (permalink)  
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m, can you put him on a range that would deter us from wanting to bet the fuck out of this river?

ok maybe not bet the fuck out of it, but gosh...
your banner burned here
 
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Micro2Macro
Old 03-01-2010, 02:20 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by speedcake View Post
m, can you put him on a range that would deter us from wanting to bet the fuck out of this river?

ok maybe not bet the fuck out of it, but gosh...
i just gave one scroll up

with my range i think he can call Qx and maybe even JJ if I just bet like 25-33% pot which would make a value bet +EV
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elipsesjeff
Old 03-02-2010, 04:11 PM #10 (permalink)  
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 I think we can vbet here since he's bad, also wouldn't mind a 2barrel.

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aka_red
Old 03-03-2010, 05:54 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff View Post
I think we can vbet here since he's bad, also wouldn't mind a 2barrel.

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Deanglow
Old 03-03-2010, 04:56 PM #12 (permalink)  
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 Betting like $60 is ok
 
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