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25NL T9s couple of spots

  
 
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FeltOntheTable
Old 04-07-2008, 05:55 PM     Post subject: 25NL T9s couple of spots #1 (permalink)  

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FeltOntheTable
I've lurked on FTR quite a while now and picked up a lot of great stuff for my game. I'd like to get some feedback on these hands.

No reads on villain, he's new to the table.
I probably should have 4bet shoved on the turn, but as played bet or check the river?
PokerStars Game #16544916447: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2008/04/06 - 23:14:28 (ET)
Table 'Aetolia' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: howkent ($13.40 in chips)
Seat 2: rawhide1 ($23.35 in chips)
Seat 3: FeltOnTable ($23.25 in chips)
Seat 4: MillerTimes2 ($29.80 in chips)
Seat 5: British303 ($26.65 in chips)
Seat 6: Cox31 ($14 in chips)
Seat 7: Gdela59 ($10.35 in chips)
Seat 8: AlbertzZ ($36.70 in chips)
Seat 9: meathead68 ($24.10 in chips)
Gdela59: posts small blind $0.10
AlbertzZ: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FeltOnTable [9h Th]
meathead68: folds
howkent: raises $0.50 to $0.75
rawhide1: folds
FeltOnTable: calls $0.75
MillerTimes2: folds
British303: folds
Cox31: folds
Gdela59: calls $0.65
AlbertzZ: folds
*** FLOP *** [2c Kh 8h]
Gdela59: checks
howkent: checks
FeltOnTable: checks
*** TURN *** [2c Kh 8h] [4h]
Gdela59: checks
howkent: bets $0.50
FeltOnTable: raises $2 to $2.50
Gdela59: folds
howkent: raises $2.50 to $5
FeltOnTable: calls $2.50
*** RIVER *** [2c Kh 8h 4h] [Kc]
howkent: checks
FeltOnTable: ???


This one SB is new to the table and UTG is very laggy. This one looks pretty close odds wise unless the SB folds when I call.

PokerStars Game #16481001003: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2008/04/04 - 13:15:32 (ET)
Table 'Vala V' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: DaJetz82 ($9.75 in chips)
Seat 2: allsoupedout ($15.90 in chips)
Seat 3: FeltOnTable ($35.35 in chips)
Seat 6: Korchnoi ($24.40 in chips)
Seat 9: NasirJones23 ($19.75 in chips)
Woob4sh will be allowed to play after the button
NasirJones23: posts small blind $0.10
DaJetz82: posts big blind $0.25
virtuerostov: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to FeltOnTable [9h Th]
allsoupedout: raises $0.75 to $1
acetruck leaves the table
FeltOnTable: calls $1
Korchnoi: folds
flagguy joins the table at seat #8
NasirJones23: raises $2 to $3
DaJetz82: folds
allsoupedout: calls $2
FeltOnTable: calls $2
*** FLOP *** [Jh Kc 7d]
NasirJones23: bets $4
allsoupedout: raises $8.90 to $12.90 and is all-in
FeltOnTable: ???
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d0zer
Old 04-07-2008, 06:09 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 Hand1: Fold pre. You don't have good implieds vs this halfstack. As played, get it in as soon as you hit your flush. The river's only bad for you if you were up against set, but top pair is more likely.

Hand2: Uhh...fold pre again. Especially to the 3-bet. Even from a lag. You're behind his range with something as marginal as T9s, and against you're up against halfstacks so again, bad implied odds.

As played the pot is now $26, and it's costing you $12.90 to continue. If nasir joins you, you're getting even better odds with yer double-gutter. I think I call that instead of pushing in hopes of getting nasir along for the ride.
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martindcx1e
Old 04-07-2008, 06:23 PM #3 (permalink)  
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1) Like dozer said, do not call short stack raises preflop with sc's. Once you hit your flush you need to get him all in at some point.

2) Fold preflop. Fold flop.
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d0zer
Old 04-07-2008, 06:30 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
2) Fold flop.
Oh c'mon let's gambol a bit. SB looks like he's good to contribute more, and even if he isn't we're still getting just slightly better than 2:1. I guess it's pretty close to neutral EV if SB folds, but +EV if he's in.
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FeltOntheTable
Old 04-07-2008, 07:38 PM #5 (permalink)  

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FeltOntheTable
So how much implied odds should I be looking to get for a SC?
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Warpe
Old 04-07-2008, 08:04 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 The simplest rule of thumb is that villain should be roughly full-stacked (100bb) or better to call the inital raise with scs.



 
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d0zer
Old 04-07-2008, 08:11 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Warpe
The simplest rule of thumb is that villain should be roughly full-stacked (100bb) or better to call the inital raise with scs.
QFT

And be more inclined to do it when you have position on the villain so you can potentially outplay him postflop when you both miss, OR when it's going to be a multi-way pot.
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Fnord
Old 04-07-2008, 08:12 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FeltOntheTable
So how much implied odds should I be looking to get for a SC?
I don't call suited connectors for implied odds. I will 3-bet and float them for effective odds.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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d0zer
Old 04-07-2008, 08:20 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
I don't call suited connectors for implied odds. I will 3-bet and float them for effective odds.
I've never bought into the notion that like low PPs, low SC's have great implied odds. Low PPs are soooo much more profitable.

Sometimes from the blinds I'll call a PFR with SC's if it's gunna be 4-way+ cause I'm just getting such good odds, but almost never if I think it's gunna be HU.
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martindcx1e
Old 04-07-2008, 08:30 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by d0zer
Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
2) Fold flop.
Oh c'mon let's gambol a bit. SB looks like he's good to contribute more, and even if he isn't we're still getting just slightly better than 2:1. I guess it's pretty close to neutral EV if SB folds, but +EV if he's in.
it's +EV if SB comes along (which I guess does look likely). if SB folds then we are looking at $17 to win $26 with 32% chance to hit our 8 outs by the river. 68% of the time we lose $17 (68 x -17 = -$1156) and 32% of the time we win $26 (32 x 26 = +$832) so it's clearly -EV. correct me if i made a mistake there.
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Fnord
Old 04-07-2008, 08:48 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by d0zer
I'll call a PFR with SC's if it's gunna be 4-way+ cause I'm just getting such good odds, but almost never if I think it's gunna be HU.
The problem here is that drawing hands are very sensitive to position and you're likely to flop a draw or weak made hand when you hit.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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d0zer
Old 04-07-2008, 09:01 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
it's +EV if SB comes along (which I guess does look likely). if SB folds then we are looking at $17 to win $26 with 32% chance to hit our 8 outs by the river. 68% of the time we lose $17 (68 x -17 = -$1156) and 32% of the time we win $26 (32 x 26 = +$832) so it's clearly -EV. correct me if i made a mistake there.
We're only looking at $12.90, not $17.

.68 * -12.90 = -8.772
.32 * 26 = 8.32

EV = -.452

So slightly -EV

If SB comes along (all-in), then it's costing us $16.75 to win $26 +12.75 (SB's remaining stack) = 38.75

.68 * 16.75 = -11.39
.32 * 38.75 = 12.4

EV = 1.01

Ok I thought it would be better than that. ...that's fairly marginal value.

Let's say the SB folds x% of the time.

Then we have
(x * -.452) + ((1-x) * 1.01) = 0
being our break even point.

Doing some mathematical wizardry, I come up with x=69%.

So we're breaking even with the SB coming along for the ride 31% of the time. The more he's coming in, the better our EV is.

Given all that I'd say this is fairly close to neutral EV, erring slightly on the side of +EV, but of course variable on SB's actions. I guess I couldn't really fault hero for going either way, especially in the heat of the moment...
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Warpe
Old 04-07-2008, 09:32 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
Originally Posted by FeltOntheTable
So how much implied odds should I be looking to get for a SC?
I don't call suited connectors for implied odds. I will 3-bet and float them for effective odds.
All/most/some of the time? HU only, I'm assuming.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
Originally Posted by d0zer
I'll call a PFR with SC's if it's gunna be 4-way+ cause I'm just getting such good odds, but almost never if I think it's gunna be HU.
The problem here is that drawing hands are very sensitive to position and you're likely to flop a draw or weak made hand when you hit.
So? That's why we want juicy odds pre, juicier if we're OOP.



 
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Fnord
Old 04-07-2008, 10:10 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Warpe
HU only, I'm assuming.
Not really. Position is still good multi-way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Warpe
So? That's why we want juicy odds pre, juicier if we're OOP.
Not a big fan of pot-odds calculations in spots like that with lots of money behind. The question here is how well are we going to do with the money yet to be bet?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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martindcx1e
Old 04-08-2008, 02:41 AM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by d0zer
Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
it's +EV if SB comes along (which I guess does look likely). if SB folds then we are looking at $17 to win $26 with 32% chance to hit our 8 outs by the river. 68% of the time we lose $17 (68 x -17 = -$1156) and 32% of the time we win $26 (32 x 26 = +$832) so it's clearly -EV. correct me if i made a mistake there.
We're only looking at $12.90, not $17.
Quote:
Originally Posted by FeltOntheTable
*** FLOP *** [Jh Kc 7d]
NasirJones23: bets $4
allsoupedout: raises $8.90 to $12.90 and is all-in
this equals $17 no? 4 + 13 = 17?
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d0zer
Old 04-08-2008, 05:09 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
Quote:
Originally Posted by FeltOntheTable
*** FLOP *** [Jh Kc 7d]
NasirJones23: bets $4
allsoupedout: raises $8.90 to $12.90 and is all-in
this equals $17 no? 4 + 13 = 17?
souped raises 8.90 on top of 4 to 12.90, leaving Nasir 8.90 to call innit?
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martindcx1e
Old 04-08-2008, 05:20 PM #17 (permalink)  
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hero is not nasir. hero is felt. nasir bet a total of $4 and souped bet a total of $13. that means together they just added $17 to the pot and now it's hero's turn to act.
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pgil
Old 04-08-2008, 05:28 PM #18 (permalink)  
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souped has 15.90 to start the hand, put in 3 pf, so is left with 12.90 postflop.

I think I see where the error is occurring. Your earlier post said it is 17 to call to win 26. but it is only 13 to call. They did both add 17 to the pot combined, but the bet to hero is still only 13. EV calcs must be adjusted to the ones dozer did.
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martindcx1e
Old 04-08-2008, 06:46 PM #19 (permalink)  
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geez why am i stupid. my bad obv.
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Fnord
Old 04-15-2008, 12:09 AM #20 (permalink)  
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Ed agrees

http://www.notedpokerauthority.com/n....html#more-435
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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