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25nl big draw

  
 
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Toe
Old 12-11-2007, 01:27 PM     Post subject: 25nl big draw #1 (permalink)  
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Toe
Villain is 15/3/0.38 over just 35 hands. I raise JTs because Ive found a large percentage of the time on party 25NL people will limp then fold to a raise, or fold to a cbet on the flop. Is there a way to check in PT how profitable I am raising marginal hands after limpers? A typical range for most players who limp here is any pocket pair any 2 face cards and some Axs although preflop he could really have anything here. I think he has a set here from how he just calls the flop then shoves over me on the turn but it could also be a pair with a flush draw or 2 pair. Should I check the turn here? Looking back I really think I should have. After he pushes do I call?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (10 handed) Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG+2 ($23.48)
MP1 ($28.06)
MP2 ($29.24)
Hero ($45.97)
CO ($20.29)
Button ($16.24)
SB ($5.45)
BB ($14.59)
UTG ($26.46)
UTG+1 ($8.45)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T, J.
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, CO calls $1.25, 3 folds, UTG+2 calls $1.

Flop: ($4.10) 2, 8, 9 (3 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $2.75, CO calls $2.75, UTG+2 calls $2.75.

Turn: ($12.35) 3 (3 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $6, CO calls $6, UTG+2 calls $23.48 (All-In), Hero ?
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BigPapi
Old 12-11-2007, 03:26 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I'd check turn here yes (for pot control). his action does smell like a set or 2p at least. Doubt he has a FD, but you also have a 3rd opp in the hand. I do think you have odds to call here though. I probably would
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Pelion
Old 12-11-2007, 04:34 PM #3 (permalink)  
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it looks alot like CO has a straight draw or flush draw here too. If thats true it really hurts you.

For some reason im being rubbish and having a hard time working out your pot odds but it looks like youre getting around 3:1 ( a little more if CO calls, a little less if he doesnt) meaning you need 25%ish equity to call. Their ranges are wide enough that I doubt you have less than that so you can call.

I doubt you are worse off than this

Board: 2c 8d 9h 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.649% 22.73% 02.92% 210 27.00 { JcTc }
Hand 1: 11.364% 08.44% 02.92% 78 27.00 { Ac9c, JTs, 76s }
Hand 2: 62.987% 62.99% 00.00% 582 0.00 { 99 }

The problem with betting the turn is that the pot is big enough that if someone raises you can't push over the top. In other words you will have to call (getting the right odds) but as a slight dog. It would be much better if the pot was a little smaller meaning you could push over a raise and have some FE as well. With only one card to come you are slight dog to 9x so you arent likely to be value betting here and with 2 players still in the pot you are unlikely to see 2 folds for a half pot bet. If you really want to bet then make a man sized bet that will gain some fold equity (you want 9x to fold). This will also leave you with a much easier call if they push over.
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spoonitnow
Old 12-11-2007, 04:37 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 In addition to what's already been said, I bet the flop harder than this into two players.
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Toe
Old 12-11-2007, 04:54 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Toe
Thanks guys, awesome response Pelion just what I was looking for. I have no idea why both my flop and turn bets are so small but i agree that if im betting at this they need to be bigger.
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