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25NL. AKs. How do you feel about this TPTK call?

  
 
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DogOnMySide
Old 03-09-2006, 10:24 AM     Post subject: 25NL. AKs. How do you feel about this TPTK call? #1 (permalink)  
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No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $35.75
UTG+1: $8.80
MP1: $8.95
MP2: $28.55
MP3: $68.35
CO: $29.40
Button: $42.45
SB: $25.70
BB: $9.05

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG with A K
Hero raises to $0.75, 4 folds, CO raises to $2.5, Button calls $2.5, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.75.

Flop: 6 Q K ($7.85, 3 players)
Hero bets $7.5, CO raises all-in $26.9, Button folds, Hero calls $19.4.

...

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Demiparadigm
Old 03-09-2006, 10:59 AM #2 (permalink)  
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You're getting a litte less than 2 to 1 and I think youre good a little less than that. Not a huge mistake, but I think a fold is the best play.
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
 
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arkana
Old 03-09-2006, 11:16 AM #3 (permalink)  
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This is a clear fold. What hand range do you put him on after he reraised you preflop and how many of those hands are you beating on that board?
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DogOnMySide
Old 03-09-2006, 11:32 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Yeah it was the preflop RR which sets the alarm bells a-ringin' in a big way.

Aces was the obvious choice but i didn't put him on that.

My range is JJ+, AKo/s , AQ o/s, KQ.

Pokerstove
Board: 6h Ks Qs
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 51.1482 % 42.20% 08.94% { AcKc }
Hand 2: 48.8518 % 39.91% 08.94% { JJ+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo }

but then... who does this with JJ? really? and if you get rid of JJ...

Board: 6h Ks Qs
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 43.4614 % 32.60% 10.86% { AcKc }
Hand 2: 56.5386 % 45.68% 10.86% { QQ+, AQs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo }

Thats more realistic, and much worse

In which case, is it my preflop play which caused the problems, with a UTG raise? I can't see myself NOT seeing a flop with AKs unless opp went crazy.

I guess TPTK with ace king is generally not a good enough hand to play for your stackif you've been re-raised pf. Horrible generalisation!
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Fnord
Old 03-09-2006, 11:33 AM #5 (permalink)  
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What's hero's line on the flop? Check/fold? Should hero just dump this pre-flop? Like many HH's from newer players, I think the interesting decision was at an earlier point in the hand.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Fnord
Old 03-09-2006, 11:35 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Dog,

I think your range for a typical NLHE player re-raising is much too wide. Few players at that level play that well. Weak players are, well weak and the better players are too tight with re-raises because the dead money is too stupid not to pay them off.

Although, that's the real pain here. Different players have different ranges, so without a read...

Quote:
Originally Posted by DogOnMySide
In which case, is it my preflop play which caused the problems, with a UTG raise? I can't see myself NOT seeing a flop with AKs unless opp went crazy.
Think it through and see if you get to the same conclusion I reached. Stop playing cards and think exploitation. IMHO, NLHE is much more profitable from an exploitation perspective. But that generally requires reads...

Quote:
Originally Posted by DogOnMySide
I guess TPTK with ace king is generally not a good enough hand to play for your stackif you've been re-raised pf. Horrible generalisation!
No, you're just putting this in the catagory of TPTK when it's not really. It's AK on a KQx 2-tone board against another premium hand, probably a big pocket pair. The Queen really hurts the value of your hand and few players are stupid enough to give you action with AQo on that board.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Fnord
Old 03-09-2006, 11:43 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
Not a huge mistake, but I think a fold is the best play.
Neither one of us knows the results, right? I'll wager you $100 hero is crushed on the flop.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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DogOnMySide
Old 03-09-2006, 12:50 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
I think your range for a typical NLHE player re-raising is much too wide.
Do you think many 25NL only reraise with QQ+, AK? I mean i did think "this is aces!" but for some reason at the time i felt it was really unlikely.

I think I'm okay with putting value on being re-raised. I have no probs dropping loads of hands to that re-raise, and i swear i seriously considered mucking that one, but figured i should see the flop.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Think it through and see if you get to the same conclusion I reached. Stop playing cards and think exploitation. IMHO, NLHE is much more profitable from an exploitation perspective. But that generally requires reads...
Well i had the ol' gametime+ 35% VP$IP which i should have posted. But that's not a read, it's just a number, and it can be really deceptive when sample size is just 90 or so hands.

Anyway... i am pondering on what you said about "exploitation". Do you mean picking spots to make moves like this?

If i hadn't been re-raised PF it makes the hand much better. I didn't seriously sit and assign hands to that re-raise before i called it PF.

Appreciate your time Fnord even tho i'm still not sure what you mean with the exploitation thing.
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Demiparadigm
Old 03-09-2006, 01:22 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
Not a huge mistake, but I think a fold is the best play.
Neither one of us knows the results, right? I'll wager you $100 hero is crushed on the flop.
Still -EV for me. I think Hero is crushed the majority of the time, just not always.

I think he is good here ~25% against a good opponent and <10% against a bad one.
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
 
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Fnord
Old 03-09-2006, 01:37 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DogOnMySide
Do you think many 25NL only reraise with QQ+, AK? I mean i did think "this is aces!" but for some reason at the time i felt it was really unlikely.
Do you have data/experience the shows otherwise? Once you filter out to clear stupid-aggro opponents and re-raises against them, in my experience, the range is pretty much that with random crap thrown in like 5-10% of the time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DogOnMySide
Well i had the ol' gametime+ 35% VP$IP which i should have posted. But that's not a read, it's just a number, and it can be really deceptive when sample size is just 90 or so hands.
PFR? Any other impressions? Make a snap judgement and run with it. Beats the shit out of playing against an "unknown."

Quote:
Originally Posted by DogOnMySide
Appreciate your time Fnord even tho i'm still not sure what you mean with the exploitation thing.
Running lines that exploit our opponents predictable tendencies, while accepting that such lines are also exploitable and lose to ideal play. DSaxton tipped me off to this line of reasoning...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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DogOnMySide
Old 03-09-2006, 02:03 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Running lines that exploit our opponents predictable tendencies, while accepting that such lines are also exploitable and lose to ideal play. DSaxton tipped me off to this line of reasoning...
Oh i like that a lot. Very bushido.

Use your opponent's momentum against them - but realise what vulnerabilities you create in yourself at the same time.

I need to meditate upon that one.

Would you agree that the hand is acceptable up to the call? Or do you feel that you are so likely to be way behind on the flop that c/c is by far the best way out?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord-San
PFR? Any other impressions? Make a snap judgement and run with it. Beats the shit out of playing against an "unknown."
Well all this is hindsight of course but pt has him as semi-loose, passive preflop, aggressive postflop. Its all so marginal its hard to use it reliably

I'm never sure what to make of the PFR% stat. 7% seems to be an 'average' but the deviation from that from passive to aggressive is a matter of 1% or 2% at most.
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Renton
Old 03-09-2006, 02:11 PM #12 (permalink)  
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 first of all you should have raised at least 1.25 preflop IMO. Then his reraise would have told you a little more. Second of all. You should have checked that flop. Then you are making it cheaper on yourself when he bets (which he will). If this bet is small enough, call the bet and see what he does on the turn. JJ/AQ/AJ would slowdown at this point. Then you strike. However this guy has AA/KK/QQ at least 30% of the time. The only tragedy that might occur from folding this is that he might very well have AK too. But given this flop, any implied odds you might have had from being in a dominating position with AK have gone and past.
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Demiparadigm
Old 03-09-2006, 02:30 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DogOnMySide
I'm never sure what to make of the PFR% stat. 7% seems to be an 'average' but the deviation from that from passive to aggressive is a matter of 1% or 2% at most.
LOL I run between 15-20% PFR.
<5% is low.
5-10% is average.

Its actually a pretty wide range.
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
 
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Fnord
Old 03-09-2006, 02:47 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
LOL I run between 15-20% PFR.
If that's full ring, I would think running into hands would be a major problem....

5% is pretty typical. 2% isn't uncommon.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Demiparadigm
Old 03-09-2006, 02:54 PM #15 (permalink)  
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My PFR 9-10 handed looks to be about 12%.
To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
 
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Fnord
Old 03-09-2006, 02:58 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
My PFR 9-10 handed looks to be about 12%.
Sounds more in line. Mine varies wildly depending on table conditions.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Renton
Old 03-09-2006, 02:59 PM #17 (permalink)  
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 if i'm not mistaken the absolute number for PFR% is irrelevant. Isn't it really your PFR% in proportion to your VPIP%.

e.g. if you have a VPIP% of 20 and a PFR% of 10% you're raising half the time you come in, so you're not as aggressive as someone with a VPIP of 12% and a PFR% of 8%.
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Fnord
Old 03-09-2006, 03:07 PM #18 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
if i'm not mistaken the absolute number for PFR% is irrelevant. Isn't it really your PFR% in proportion to your VPIP%.
No, I really want an absolute value here. The two combined help me put a player to a profile though. Many loose players are tight raisers. I'm a pretty loose raiser, but over-all I play tight.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
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Fnord
Old 03-09-2006, 03:12 PM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DogOnMySide
Would you agree that the hand is acceptable up to the call? Or do you feel that you are so likely to be way behind on the flop that c/c is by far the best way out?
Post-flop is a variant of a problem I haven't yet found an answer to that I really like. It sure as hell is easy making aware players uncomfortable with TPTK though *cackle*
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
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DogOnMySide
Old 03-09-2006, 03:31 PM #20 (permalink)  
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Oh by the way... as if you didn't already know...
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