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jessyj
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09-30-2009, 01:17 AM
Post subject: 200nl top 2 vs. tag and fish
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#1 (permalink)
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 90
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pfr is a winning 15/12 nitty tag, minraiser is a complete monkey. Turn and river action? Note stacks
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($314)
UTG+1 ($219.90)
MP1 ($259.80)
MP2 ($200)
Hero (CO) ($466.75)
Button ($234.05)
SB ($117.25)
BB ($210.25)
Preflop: Hero is CO with K , Q
UTG bets $6, 3 folds, Hero calls $6, 1 fold, SB calls $5, BB calls $4
Flop: ($24) 4 , K , Q (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets $14, Hero calls $14, SB raises to $28, 1 fold, UTG raises to $49, Hero calls $35, SB calls $21
Turn: ($171) 6 (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets $114, Hero
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pokerfan
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,731
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is calling KQs in CO really profitable vs UTG tight opener? As played, i'm hard pressed to fold this. Yeah, i shove and pay the man monies. If UTG folds, fishy monkey might pay you off.
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mxiu
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 982
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ship it in and expect him to stack off with AA, maybe some AK
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grindinginnj
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Grinding In New Jersey!!
Posts: 143
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Insta push for me..what hands can he have AA,AK,AQ,44,10J,MAybe KK,QQ, but since we have KQ..little less likley..I think he has AA,AK here alot
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Stackin chips and rippin lips!!
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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holy shitcakes you get into some horrible spots don't you!
I can't even properly analyse this hand. Everytime I think it through I convince myself he has KK/QQ but that's 2 combos and that can't be right. How come I advocate nitty folds in just about every thread yet at the tables I'm the biggest station there is??
I just can't see him vbetting AA/AK here when we've shown so much strength on the flop. Yeah we can just about have JTs but if I was UTG I would be shitting bricks about 44/QQ/KK which make up a bigger part of our range. If he's not betting AK/AA here then his range is ... sets? Maybe we can shove and get him to fold 44 that would be cool.
jfc, I need results on this one sosososo bad
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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This is too heroic for me.
The only way you can consider a fold is if he never has AA here... Wouldn't he c-bet? Wouldn't he call the minraise? Would he never bet the turn?
as for the action... just call/call, or shove river if he checks... sb could have AK, KJ, JT, 44, QQ, KK, AA- which makes our equity against utg's range even better.
The only thing I'm not so sure about is the call pre. - you're IP, your sooted, but you're easily dominated on most flops that you will get action on.
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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Yeah in fairness I don't think there's any way I fold this at the tables, but when we can massively analyse it like this, do you really think most decent tags are going to be vbetting this turn with AA? What is he hoping to get value from? Would he really do that tiny 3bet on the flop with AA?
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3k post - Return of the blog!
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jessyj
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 90
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by badgers
holy shitcakes you get into some horrible spots don't you!
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this was a pretty easy spot for me since I was actually villain in this hand . More interesting from his pov though. I thought KQ was a fold somewhere in the hand and I was shocked when he flipped KQ and not 44.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($314)
UTG+1 ($219.90)
MP1 ($259.80)
MP2 ($200)
Hero (CO) ($466.75)
Button ($234.05)
SB ($117.25)
BB ($210.25)
Preflop: Hero is CO with K , Q
UTG bets $6, 3 folds, Hero calls $6, 1 fold, SB calls $5, BB calls $4
Flop: ($24) 4 , K , Q (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets $14, Hero calls $14, SB raises to $28, 1 fold, UTG raises to $49, Hero calls $35, SB calls $21
Turn: ($171) 6 (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets $114, Hero calls $114, SB calls $62.25 (All-In)
River: ($461.25) 10 (3 players, 1 all-in)
UTG bets $145 (All-In), Hero calls $145
Total pot: $751.25 | Rake: $3
Results:
SB had J , 10 (one pair, tens).
Hero had Q , K (two pair, Kings and Queens).
UTG had K , K (three of a kind, Kings).
Outcome: Hero won $748.25
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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The reason it's pretty much impossible to find a fold is what badger said - there are 6 combinations of AA, and 2 of KK, QQ, even less if SB can have a K or Q in his range - and it's not that often a 15/12 will have 44 in his UTG opening range. UTG could be 3 times less likely to have AA than KK or QQ and it would still be a call.
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The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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ahhh so sneaky! Since when do you run 15/12?
If it was a reg that I knew and I felt sure wasn't vbetting worse I think this has to be a fold but our hand is so so pretty (yeah I'm claiming to fold after results are posted so what :P)
Who was hero?
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3k post - Return of the blog!
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jessyj
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 90
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by badgers
ahhh so sneaky! Since when do you run 15/12?
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It was to get regs to pay me off since they see me as 13/8 fml you caught me. What do you have me as?
Hero was timmmmmmerlmaao
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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I have you at like 12/10 I think, so I snapfold flop ldo.
OR DO I???
advance poker leveling going on here watch out.
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3k post - Return of the blog!
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bikes
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a hot damn mess
Administrator
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 2,237
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I think the flop is an obv fold after the c/r and 3b
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Parkour to you!
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jessyj
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 90
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by badgers
I have you at like 12/10 I think, so I snapfold flop ldo.
OR DO I???
advance poker leveling going on here watch out.
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oh damn! We play at different times anyways. I think I have <5k hands with you all time and virtually none the last 6 months. I have changed in this time .
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ljove
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 80
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KK yes,but you got KQ and one more K is on the board and there is a Q.It i hard to convince yourself that he has pocket K's.And that loose player on SB who was pushing with draw was there to confuse you.LOL he got pot odds to play and he was adding a value for straight that he wait for.I don't know maybe I am mad but always is better small win then the big lose.
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Muzzard
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cheshire, UK
Posts: 1,843
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ljove
KK yes,but you got KQ and one more K is on the board and there is a Q.It i hard to convince yourself that he has pocket K's.And that loose player on SB who was pushing with draw was there to confuse you.LOL he got pot odds to play and he was adding a value for straight that he wait for.I don't know maybe I am mad but always is better small win then the big lose.
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This sums in up in a nice coherent and concise way.
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