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200NL: Misc stationitude

  
 
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d0zer
Old 07-18-2008, 02:44 AM     Post subject: 200NL: Misc stationitude #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain appeared a little taggy over small sample.

I have these lines of thought a lot.

-V is probably tight enough that I ain't getting two streets of value from worse.
-Might as well let v take stab(s) at it.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($200)
MP1 ($48.40)
MP2 ($70.90)
CO ($291.15)
Button ($233.30)
SB ($30)
BB ($236.15)
UTG ($57.15)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q, Q.
1 fold, Hero raises to $8, 2 folds, CO calls $8, 3 folds.

Flop: ($19) 8, T, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $14, CO calls $14.

Turn: ($47) J (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $37, Hero calls $37.

River: ($121) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $72, Hero calls $72.


V Unknown, but seemed a little taggy also

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP1 ($299.80)
MP2 ($40)
MP3 ($17.65)
Hero ($224)
Button ($98)
SB ($198)
BB ($203)
UTG ($156)
UTG+1 ($167.05)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, K.
2 folds, MP1 raises to $6, 2 folds, Hero raises to $22, 3 folds, MP1 calls $16.

Flop: ($47) T, 7, A (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($47) 4 (2 players)
MP1 bets $25, Hero calls $25.

River: ($97) T (2 players)
MP1 bets $45, Hero calls $45.
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jimmy44
Old 07-18-2008, 10:57 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 Hand 1: It's difficult to put villain on a full-house/trips only. You beat a lot of his range. What's bugging me is the 3/5 bet on RIVER IP. Does he think you can fold an overpair with that bet or does he really have a better hand and is trying to make you pay? Without reads it's a very difficult spot. But I think I call, we're getting about 2.7 - 1 which means villains needs to bluff at least 28% (I don't think he is ever value betting AJo here) of the time for it to be a good call.

Hand 2: At these levels your hand is quite transparent once you reach the river, but I play the same! (without reads, I would fold to a higher bet on river) There is no point C-betting this FLOP. Just hope villain is trying to put you off your hand with QQ/JJ/99 or air/missed FD
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Old 07-18-2008, 12:27 PM #3 (permalink)  
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I am betting the turn on hand 1 and folding if raised.

Although villain might feel good betting that with JTs because he would beat AJ
but I'm not exactly sure what I would do on the river
if I bet the turn and got called I would not call the river bet

Second hand I would cbet that flop and fold the turn after the cbet got called or fold to a raise
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elipsesjeff
Old 07-18-2008, 01:19 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 i like them both


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ATOTHEC101
Old 07-18-2008, 01:33 PM #5 (permalink)  
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id play hand 1 the same, id also bet the flop in hand 2 and shutdown if called, as played id fold to his river bet.
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pokerfan
Old 07-18-2008, 02:55 PM #6 (permalink)  
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1, b/f on the turn. I dont really like check on the turn cuz there are a few dangerous cards out there and you need to define your villain's range well ASAP.
2, Unless he is very aggressive,i probably fold on the river
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pgil
Old 07-18-2008, 03:40 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
i like them both
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d0zer
Old 07-18-2008, 03:53 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 Against certain types of villains, I think these are the best lines, but vs unknowns I'm not so sure.

These villains were relative unknowns, but who's stats are starting to lean towards what appears to be somewhat tight/aggressive, with a little more limping/calling in the mix. Maybe like 20/10 or something of the like, but I had no specific postflop reads on em'.

I'm generally satisfied with my line in hand2 as a default here, but hand1's turn is questionable. The line may miss value from AT or something. Thing is, I'm not sure what this villain is cold calling preflop with that I'm beating and he's calling a turn bet with. Is he really flatting AT/AJ/KT/KJ/TJ from an EP raiser? Doesn't seem terribly likely.

Also, I'm kinda gambling that villain is the kind who will take stabs with weak holding when shown weakness. Is "monkey checked-to / monkey bet" prevalent enough at 200NL FR to make this profitable as a default line here vs maybe-tagg unknowns? Maybe, I dunno...don't have enough experience here really.

...just thinkin' aloud. *shrug*
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pgil
Old 07-18-2008, 04:05 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by pokerfan
1, b/f on the turn. I dont really like check on the turn cuz there are a few dangerous cards out there and you need to define your villain's range well ASAP.
betting the turn seems like a really bad play here. "defining villains range" seems to be another way of saying "bet to see where you are at." there are too many draws/speculative hands around to allow you to get good enough information to make this a profitable play. by narrowing opps range you are basically folding out most hands that you are ahead of, and getting called only by those that have a lot of equity in this pot, and are never folding out a hand that you are ahead of. all you do is block future bluffs and possibly block thin "value" bets from JT.

also, why would you want to face a stronger (or perceived stronger) range on the river OOP in a bigger than necessary pot? if you bet the turn and are called, I don't see a lot of value in betting the river (called by 99/JT, and that is about it that we beat), but you will have a much harder time turning a profit with a c/c line on the river after betting both the flop and the turn, than if you c/c the turn, as any missed draws can continue to bluff, JT will still likely bet. you only lose a bit of value from 99 which may or may not have called a small river bet, and gain from bluffs.

i am now starting to ramble, so will stop
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pgil
Old 07-18-2008, 04:14 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by d0zer
Against certain types of villains, I think these are the best lines, but vs unknowns I'm not so sure.

These villains were relative unknowns, but who's stats are starting to lean towards what appears to be somewhat tight/aggressive, with a little more limping/calling in the mix. Maybe like 20/10 or something of the like, but I had no specific postflop reads on em'.

I'm generally satisfied with my line in hand2 as a default here, but hand1's turn is questionable. The line may miss value from AT or something. Thing is, I'm not sure what this villain is cold calling preflop with that I'm beating and he's calling a turn bet with. Is he really flatting AT/AJ/KT/KJ/TJ from an EP raiser? Doesn't seem terribly likely.

Also, I'm kinda gambling that villain is the kind who will take stabs with weak holding when shown weakness. Is "monkey checked-to / monkey bet" prevalent enough at 200NL FR to make this profitable as a default line here vs maybe-tagg unknowns? Maybe, I dunno...don't have enough experience here really.

...just thinkin' aloud. *shrug*
20/10's are going to be betting when checked to here a lot. they also love to float, and put us on missed overs (ie AK) more than they should.

he is probably flatting all sorts of hands from lp, including most of the range you mentioned. the thing is, most of those hands are not flatting the flop. AT/KT/JT might, but the other J's should be folding, and if they are calling (floating) they are not likely to bet both the turn and river when they hit.

and i just realized that if i dont get my ass moving i am going to be late for work. damn ftr, taking all of my time.
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pokerfan
Old 07-18-2008, 04:32 PM #11 (permalink)  
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c/c and c/c on later two streets is an optimal way to exploit LAGG's aggressive tendencies when shown weakness. You cant play this way in the darkness most of the time vs standard unknown TAs.
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elipsesjeff
Old 07-18-2008, 06:29 PM #12 (permalink)  
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 yeah, bet/folding the turn to a reg seems like a real bad way to play hand 1.

Vs a station though I am definitely liking that line a lot.


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d0zer
Old 07-18-2008, 06:36 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
yeah, bet/folding the turn to a reg seems like a real bad way to play hand 1.

Vs a station though I am definitely liking that line a lot.
Agreed. Vs a station there's no way I'm taking these passive lines.
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Old 07-18-2008, 07:01 PM #14 (permalink)  
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oh I thought misc stationitude was the read, not the action in the hands lol
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d0zer
Old 07-18-2008, 07:09 PM #15 (permalink)  
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d0zer is a jewel in the roughd0zer is a jewel in the roughd0zer is a jewel in the roughd0zer is a jewel in the rough
Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
oh I thought misc stationitude was the read, not the action in the hands lol
heh. no, i'm the station here
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BankItDrew
Old 07-18-2008, 07:46 PM #16 (permalink)  
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 I like hand 1 all the way through.

hand 2 is good until the river, i let it go.

sorry for my vague response today.


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d0zer
Old 07-18-2008, 07:53 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
hand 2 is good until the river, i let it go.

sorry for my vague response today.
I have trouble calling the turn only to fold the river, especially given the 3:1+ odds I'm being given, and that the river's a great card to bluff.
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badgers
Old 07-18-2008, 08:02 PM #18 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by d0zer
Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
hand 2 is good until the river, i let it go.

sorry for my vague response today.
I have trouble calling the turn only to fold the river, especially given the 3:1+ odds I'm being given, and that the river's a great card to bluff.
How so?
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bjsaust
Old 07-18-2008, 08:08 PM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
I like hand 1 all the way through.

hand 2 is good until the river, i let it go.
This was my thoughts. I'm about 50/50 on the river on hand 2, I def dont think its a snap call.
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d0zer
Old 07-18-2008, 08:14 PM #20 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by badgers
How so?
I should have said "taggfish will think that's a great card to bluff".

I probably wouldn't (not that I'm not a taggfish or anything ) cause I don't think most villains would give me credit for the T.
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badgers
Old 07-18-2008, 08:33 PM #21 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by d0zer
Quote:
Originally Posted by badgers
How so?
I should have said "taggfish will think that's a great card to bluff".

I probably wouldn't (not that I'm not a taggfish or anything ) cause I don't think most villains would give me credit for the T.
I don't understand this. If villain is trying to blow you off an A by repping a T he certainly isn't doing a very good job.... Anyway you should be thinking about their range not your own in this spot, how often is villain flatting OOP with a T? I would think some will sometimes call w/ JTs and JTs is ridic unlikely here.

If you think he's calling with hands like JTs (which I assume you do otherwise you wouldn't think it was a good card for him to bluff) he's also calling w/ AXs and taking you to value town AS WELL as valuetowning you with hands like AK/AQ.

All you beat is a bluff and the only hands villain could be bluffing with here are small PPs, I dunno I feel like this sort of villain is not half-pot bluffing 2 streets here often enough to call.
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d0zer
Old 07-18-2008, 08:56 PM #22 (permalink)  
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 Hand 2 I figure his range on the flop is AK/99+

On the river...

I'm behind:
1 TT, 3 AA, 12 AK = 16 combos of hands I'm behind.

I'm ahead of:
6 JJ, 6 QQ, 6 99 = 18 combos

Admittedly yeah the 9's are kinda wishful thinking, but I tend to assign a higher probabilities to these hands (and air) given his bet sizing. I kinda assume people size their thin vbets/bluffs less than their monsters, which admittedly does get me into trouble enough, but is often true.

It's thin, yeah...but I don't think it's OMFGBAD.
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badgers
Old 07-18-2008, 09:10 PM #23 (permalink)  
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given stack sizes i think you have to add in 77 as well

agreed it isn't horrible either way.
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BankItDrew
Old 07-19-2008, 03:31 AM #24 (permalink)  
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 I'm going to go ahead and guess 77 for both hands.


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