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200nl - easy/standard river muck

  
 
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-15-2010, 08:55 PM     Post subject: 200nl - easy/standard river muck #1 (permalink)  
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Micro2Macro is a jewel in the roughMicro2Macro is a jewel in the roughMicro2Macro is a jewel in the rough
 Right?

Villain is 21/15 over 1800, 65% fold to cbet. we don't really have any glaring history other than him folding to a few of my 4bets in late position. he cbets a depolarized range from the blinds asfaik, and he's 4bet/folded to me twice bvb.

his river bet % is only 27% fwiw, and he also isn't peeling flops that light given his high fold to cbet, so I'm actually giving him a range of AQo,AQs, less clubs, since he plays really straightforward postflop and is never going to ever, ever merge on river and start vbetting KQ.

edit: I suppose it's reasonable that he can have a set some % of the time, and perhaps a few AcXc combos betting the river for thin value.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($100)
SB ($142.95)
BB ($200)
UTG ($364.05)
UTG+1 ($200)
Hero (MP1) ($203)
MP2 ($336.45)
MP3 ($283.90)
CO ($191.05)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, A
2 folds, Hero bets $6, 5 folds, BB calls $4

Flop: ($13) Q, 9, 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10, BB calls $10

Turn: ($33) 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($33) A (2 players)
BB bets $22
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Jason
Old 02-15-2010, 09:13 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 I probably call. He has enough Qx, Ax, and AK hands to make it profitable I'd say. If he has AQ, he's not going for much value.
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daven
Old 02-15-2010, 09:53 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason
I probably call. He has enough Qx, Ax, and AK hands to make it profitable I'd say. If he has AQ, he's not going for much value.
don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

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Micro2Macro
Old 02-15-2010, 10:13 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason
I probably call. He has enough Qx, Ax, and AK hands to make it profitable I'd say. If he has AQ, he's not going for much value.
he doesn't show up with AK

Qx he can have, though hard to say whether or not he bets the river. Given his low river bet % I imagine he's checking these type of hands pretty often, but given the price it's probably a call.
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badgers
Old 02-15-2010, 10:23 PM #5 (permalink)  
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I think a fold is ok. Becomes more of a call the later position your raise is since it is more likely he'd start defending SCs and soooted aces and playing them in this way. He definitely can turn up with sets, and if you think he plays straightforward it's unlikely he'd turn TT or something into a bluff here. I think his betsize makes sense with any value hand, it's not like hero has shown any great strength so betting any more with a hand like AQ would just be overkill.
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