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d0zer
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06-16-2008, 05:58 PM
Post subject: 200NL: AQs flops NFD + over
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#1 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 2,521
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Hero had stacked villain less than a rotation ago with KK > QQ on a Jhigh board. V called my 3-bet, then pushed my flop lead. Then he re-bought short so he might be on his last legs & tilting...
Villain was 20/4 over only 2 rotations.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
UTG+1 ($214.50)
MP1 ($40)
MP2 ($239.45)
Hero ($434.20)
CO ($313.60)
Button ($139.85)
SB ($221.30)
BB ($92.85)
UTG ($208.20)
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q , A.
2 folds, Hero raises to $8, 1 fold, Button calls $8, 2 folds.
Flop: ($19) 6, K, 7 (4 players)
Hero bets $12, Button raises to $42, Hero ... ?
Hard to know if he's tilting & playing back at me, which affect the likelihood that my over is any good. Even if it is, I don't really have odds to shove here without some serious FE & chasing OOP sucks so...easy fold?
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Deanglow
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
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I would shove with your reads. I think you have good fold equity
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pokerfan
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
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i fold fast here
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by pokerfan
i fold fast here
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No fucking way.
All-in. Every time.
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BankItDrew
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
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All in. Pay for monthly car insurance.
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Girlfriend: Why are the werewolves more important than living life?!
Girlfriend: Are you on the forums doing the werewolves again?
Girlfriend: Soo... you forgot to run that errand, but you had time to werewolf? Wtf?
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Keilah
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Northern BC, Canada
Posts: 658
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You have a car?
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d0zer
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 2,521
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BankItDrew
All in. Pay for monthly car insurance.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Keilah
You have a car?
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My insurance costs me a little less than villain's stack per month.
So I push, villain flips AKo, I runner-runner trip queens and I have a little left over (after insurance) for beer monies 
I think I single-handedly took villain's roll in 20 hands 
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pokerfan
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
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you just got lucky,man. Whenever somebody 3x raise your cb, you know they are serious most of the time in FR. Basically, you just play your nuts flush draw vs his flop raising range. I just cant believe that so many ppl like to gamble in this situation,  Is everybody excited and go felt mode instantly whenever they have nuts flush draw vs big raise?
Quote:
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Originally Posted by d0zer
Quote:
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Originally Posted by BankItDrew
All in. Pay for monthly car insurance.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Keilah
You have a car?
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My insurance costs me a little less than villain's stack per month.
So I push, villain flips AKo, I runner-runner trip queens and I have a little left over (after insurance) for beer monies
I think I single-handedly took villain's roll in 20 hands |
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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lol pokerfan why can't villain have JTs? You make it sound like we're absolutely crushed all of the time.
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3k post - Return of the blog!
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JinxT4
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Flush
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 265
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Deanglow
I would shove with your reads. I think you have good fold equity
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(Trying not to be biased b/c of results): Even though I don't play 1/2, this doesn't make sense to me. If he's raising here with a K/set, I don't think he's folding, & I can't see many other hands that he's raising here (maybe a worse flush draw?). In addition to this, I think villain is less likely to be bluffing since he just got stacked & is trying to get back what he lost.
Just trying to understand the excitement over getting AI here/see it from BankItDrew & Deanglow's point of view.
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d0zer
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 2,521
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by pokerfan
you just got lucky,man.
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No way. I saw into the soul of the e-deck and knew that two queens were a'comin' 
Vs a total unknown I'd agree with you that v's flop line generally screams enough strength that I've got no FE, but there's history here...
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pokerfan
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
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its not justified felting nuts flush draw here cuz his stack is still 70BB. I'd felt this with at least 12 clear outs.
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Originally Posted by badgers
lol pokerfan why can't villain have JTs? You make it sound like we're absolutely crushed all of the time.
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pokerfan
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
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in the heat of the moment, you convinced yourself that " fuck my life, i've got to gamble this hand, why not?" , haha, nice hand :P
Quote:
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Originally Posted by d0zer
Quote:
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Originally Posted by pokerfan
you just got lucky,man.
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No way. I saw into the soul of the e-deck and knew that two queens were a'comin'
Vs a total unknown I'd agree with you that v's flop line generally screams enough strength that I've got no FE, but there's history here... |
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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News Flash: Poker is gambling
I'm only folding if I'm certain my opponent has a set.
Folding without that very specific read is sooooo bad.
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Deanglow
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by JinxT4
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Deanglow
I would shove with your reads. I think you have good fold equity
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(Trying not to be biased b/c of results): Even though I don't play 1/2, this doesn't make sense to me. If he's raising here with a K/set, I don't think he's folding, & I can't see many other hands that he's raising here (maybe a worse flush draw?). In addition to this, I think villain is less likely to be bluffing since he just got stacked & is trying to get back what he lost.
Just trying to understand the excitement over getting AI here/see it from BankItDrew & Deanglow's point of view. |
He is 20/4 over an insignificant sample so that doesn't matter. What does matter is that he has a donk stack and he lost a bunch of money a few hands ago (to this hero it doesn't matter that much). I have a read that he is terrible and probably wants to gamble. Or he is making a tilt move. I'll go in with probably 12 outs and fold equity.
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wufwugy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,660
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omg what waht?
hes short. who cares about fold equity when youd still felt if he showed KQ
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Deanglow
I have a read that he is terrible and probably wants to gamble. Or he is making a tilt move. I'll go in with probably 12 outs and fold equity.
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Struggling players tend to play a wider range and are more likely to take a stab at pots in an effort to win some back. If he's turning cash into a personal tournament, then at some point he'll pick a hand and felt it.
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Seabass
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Straight
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: trying not to die
Posts: 205
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If you feel he has a wide range/tilting/making a move you shove. You might have FE, it might be a worse draw, it might be TP. It's hard to tell when people are making there last stand, even harder with history.
In the end, I don't see myself folding.
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