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200NL AQ TPTK raised by halfbuy

  
 
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Halv
Old 09-07-2006, 01:31 PM     Post subject: 200NL AQ TPTK raised by halfbuy #1 (permalink)  
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 No read. In other news, I should probably lead flop for ~pot here, right?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

SB ($145.61)
BB ($100.15)
UTG ($194.44)
UTG+1 ($298.80)
UTG+2 ($189)
Hero ($209)
MP2 ($108.63)
MP3 ($74.50)
CO ($220.42)
Button ($193.51)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with , . SB posts a blind of $1.
3 folds, Hero raises to $7, MP2 calls $7, 4 folds, BB calls $5.

Flop: ($22) , , (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $15, MP2 raises to $45, BB folds, Hero???

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nutsinho
Old 09-07-2006, 02:18 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 fold
My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
 
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Rondavu
Old 09-07-2006, 02:25 PM #3 (permalink)  
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I push here. Don't make hard decisions against unfamiliar shorties. TPTK with back door nut flush draw on a draw heavy board is good enough. Worst thing that happens is you lose half a buy in.

I find that short stacks raise draws hard more often, for the implied threat is much more shallow.

He may have you beat, but it's irrelevant. You have percievably the best hand at the moment with at least some untainted outs.
It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
 
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zook
Old 09-07-2006, 05:00 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rondavu
I push here.
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 09-07-2006, 05:12 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 why risk so much on something so marginal? fold.
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zook
Old 09-07-2006, 05:38 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
why risk so much on something so marginal? fold.
Because I think you're ahead of his range and with the dead money in the pot you're getting ~1.5:1 on your push, assuming no fold equity.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

42,570 games 0.015 secs 2,838,000 games/sec

Board: Js Qh 7s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 52.5734 % 45.73% 06.84% { AsQd }
Hand 2: 47.4266 % 40.59% 06.84% { JJ, 77, AQs, KQs, QJs, T9s, 9s8s, AQo, KQo, QJo, T9o }
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bode
Old 09-07-2006, 05:49 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 push
Quote:
eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
 
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Halv
Old 09-07-2006, 06:33 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 I pushed, he flipped a set of sevens, just wanted to check. Thanks, guys.

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Free stream of different song here: http://www.nrk.no/urort/artist/wellfear ('Lytt'/play button on right side)
 
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 09-07-2006, 07:55 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zook
Quote:
Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
why risk so much on something so marginal? fold.
Because I think you're ahead of his range and with the dead money in the pot you're getting ~1.5:1 on your push, assuming no fold equity.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

42,570 games 0.015 secs 2,838,000 games/sec

Board: Js Qh 7s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 52.5734 % 45.73% 06.84% { AsQd }
Hand 2: 47.4266 % 40.59% 06.84% { JJ, 77, AQs, KQs, QJs, T9s, 9s8s, AQo, KQo, QJo, T9o }
The problem with this calculation is that pokerstove believes that each of these hands are equally likely, which they are not. I could make a case that QJ and 77 are by far the most likely hands you will see here. And also that T9o and KQo are by far the least likely.

Making a hypothesis of opps range based on play at 200NL by a random player since we have no reads, I say we don't have enough equity getting 1.5 to 1 on a push.
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Fnord
Old 09-07-2006, 07:55 PM #10 (permalink)  
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I pay this off too.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 09-07-2006, 08:00 PM #11 (permalink)  
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 Is there anything wrong with my reasoning? Because at this point I'm pretty sure this is a fold.
I don't understand why, if you can make the arguement that you are slightly favored, which if you can it has to be a very unsure arguement, you'd make such a marginal play?
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benny999
Old 09-07-2006, 08:09 PM #12 (permalink)  
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I think it just depends how tolerant you are of variance in marginal but likely +ev spots, if that makes sense.
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zook
Old 09-07-2006, 08:23 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
The problem with this calculation is that pokerstove believes that each of these hands are equally likely, which they are not. I could make a case that QJ and 77 are by far the most likely hands you will see here. And also that T9o and KQo are by far the least likely.
I agree that not all the hands are equally likely and T9o is the least likely. But I think KQo is in a bad player's range and I assume shorties are bad players until proven otherwise.

Quote:
Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
I don't understand why, if you can make the arguement that you are slightly favored, which if you can it has to be a very unsure arguement, you'd make such a marginal play?
This question I don't understand... if you're slightly favored, or even a slight underdog, this is a good push because of the dead money in the pot. You're risking ~$85 to win ~$130. If you're coin-flipping with your opp. that's a great bet. A side benefit (but not the reason to push) is that it helps you get paid at this table later on when you play the same way with a set.
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 09-07-2006, 10:16 PM #14 (permalink)  
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 I meant slightly +EV.... my point was that since EV is such an unprecise calculation that something that is hypothesized as +EV could easily be in fact -EV.
What I'm saying is I doubt with my skill, or halvsame's skill as a poker player that I could completely rely on my own EV calculation, and therefore would not want to risk my chips on marginal plays that I could have easily miscalculated as +EV.

I can see the logic holes in my arguement.... so let me just make a point that can't be poked holes in: I think this is -EV. Without reads I'd take a bet that 60% of the time you are facing QJ or a set....

You know what? In the middle of calculating this I have decided this is either slightly +EV or slightly -EV, leaning on the side of slightly +EV, in which case I can't really make an arguement.
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Halv
Old 09-07-2006, 10:51 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
I meant slightly +EV.... my point was that since EV is such an unprecise calculation that something that is hypothesized as +EV could easily be in fact -EV.

What I'm saying is I doubt with my skill, or halvsame's skill as a poker player that I could completely rely on my own EV calculation, and therefore would not want to risk my chips on marginal plays that I could have easily miscalculated as +EV.
This is very true, and it is here poker becomes an art rather than a science. When I'm faced with these situations I tend to go with my gut feeling. When faced with really tough decisions I will often tell myself that "if he's such a bad player that I'm ahead here, I will get his cash later". My biggest flaw, and it's not even close, is that I make stupid stupid calls against my gut feeling.

Quote:
I can see the logic holes in my arguement.... so let me just make a point that can't be poked holes in: I think this is -EV. Without reads I'd take a bet that 60% of the time you are facing QJ or a set....
That's sort of the point, if were facing a better hand less than ~70% of the time I'll come out ahead in the long run. Count in the times we're hitting an A against his QJ and the times we hit a running flush, and the percentage becomes even higher.

Does anyone call a flop push on the same premises? I suspect we're going to be up against a better hand much more often if he pushes, so I'm folding. Just want to know if this is correct.

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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 09-08-2006, 04:34 AM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zook
Quote:
Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
why risk so much on something so marginal? fold.
Because I think you're ahead of his range and with the dead money in the pot you're getting ~1.5:1 on your push, assuming no fold equity.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

42,570 games 0.015 secs 2,838,000 games/sec

Board: Js Qh 7s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 52.5734 % 45.73% 06.84% { AsQd }
Hand 2: 47.4266 % 40.59% 06.84% { JJ, 77, AQs, KQs, QJs, T9s, 9s8s, AQo, KQo, QJo, T9o }
come on, is T9o really in his range? Also, shouldn't his range be tightened up a little because he is a shortie? or are shorties just retards?

Also, there are no reads, at all. For all we know he could have QQ or KK here. How are we supposed to know what hands he plays preflop when we have no idea how he plays? He could have been playing every hand up to this point, or he could have been playing absolutely no hands.

If you have a slight idea about the tightness or looseness of the opponent then you can make a decision here. But without any reads whatsoever i just can't push or call.
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