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200NL: 2 pairs by river over passive line

  
 
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jimmy44
Old 09-25-2008, 02:34 PM     Post subject: 200NL: 2 pairs by river over passive line #1 (permalink)  
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 No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (10 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP3) ($210.60)
CO ($213.90)
Button ($34)
SB ($38)
BB ($53.35)
UTG ($203)
UTG+1 ($164.05)
UTG+2 ($42.75)
MP1 ($407.65)
MP2 ($311.30)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J, Q
3 folds, MP1 raises $8, 1 fold, Hero calls $8, 4 folds

Flop: ($19) 6, 3, Q (2 players)
MP1 bets $14, Hero calls $14

Turn: ($47) K (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks

River: ($47) J (2 players)
MP1 bets $38, Hero ???

Note: 1 orbit ago, he raise late position and I called with KQs BB. Flop comes 56Q r, he c-bets and I call. Turn come 8 and both I and villain check. River comes A no flush, I check and villain bets 4/5 pot and I folded (this was a call most of the time I believe).


villain was 14/10/3 (RIVER aggression was 2)
We have some history. villain is prone to c/r turn and c-bets 87%. He might know the I like to float.
In this hand on the flop I don't think there is any reason to raise as only worst hands fold (maybe he fold AJ/KJ but not sure. I believe, raising here should be done with worst or better hands.
On the turn, again we have good show down value and villain is prone to c/r.
With 2 aggression factor on river and we have 2 pairs: standard call? We are loosing against KQ/AT/T9 or a set and he wanted to c/r turn. He could be betting other hands like: AK/AQ/AJ/KJ or bluffs
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elipsesjeff
Old 09-25-2008, 02:59 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 Calling as compared to folding? I dont think you are wanting to raise him here but I think he'll valuetown himself a lot plus his river bet size doesn't really say much about the strength of his hand.

I'd probably call and wonder why I put myself in such spots by calling preflop.


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jimmy44
Old 09-25-2008, 03:10 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
I'd probably call and wonder why I put myself in such spots by calling preflop.
Why's that? Do you 3bet QJs LP? We loose too much value IMO.

Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Calling as compared to folding? I dont think you are wanting to raise him here but I think he'll valuetown himself a lot plus his river bet size doesn't really say much about the strength of his hand.
Of course not raise
I was just wondering which hands can we put villain on here?
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elipsesjeff
Old 09-25-2008, 03:35 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmy44
Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
I'd probably call and wonder why I put myself in such spots by calling preflop.
Why's that? Do you 3bet QJs LP? We loose too much value IMO.
From his JT and QT hands? We are reverse dominated way too much to make this call IMO and I would rather 3bet QJs in this spot and call with it. I might call if he made it 3x preflop but even then a 3bet is almost guaranteed to show a profit here.

If his PFR is 10 i'd probably estimate his opening range at 12% in this situation.

Against that range:

22+,ATs+,KJs+,AJo+,KJo+

QJs has 38% equity, and we really dont dominate anything preflop or postflop.

Also, on that range on the river we're 3:1 dogs but getting 31% on our money so its not THAT bad of a call although if you agree that's his range then maybe you should fold.


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jimmy44
Old 09-25-2008, 03:47 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmy44
Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
I'd probably call and wonder why I put myself in such spots by calling preflop.
Why's that? Do you 3bet QJs LP? We loose too much value IMO.
From his JT and QT hands? We are reverse dominated way too much to make this call IMO and I would rather 3bet QJs in this spot and call with it. I might call if he made it 3x preflop but even then a 3bet is almost guaranteed to show a profit here.

If his PFR is 10 i'd probably estimate his opening range at 12% in this situation.

Against that range:

22+,ATs+,KJs+,AJo+,KJo+

QJs has 38% equity, and we really dont dominate anything preflop or postflop.

Also, on that range on the river we're 3:1 dogs but getting 31% on our money so its not THAT bad of a call although if you agree that's his range then maybe you should fold.
A SC will make: FD/Flush/2pairs/Trips/Full-house/StraightDraw or made 26,18% of the time on the flop. This would allow us to play some poker IP and against a light c-bettor. Where we should be able to steal often the pot adds a +EV move.
I prefer to 3bet something like QJo against this player for which the above percentage goes down to 14,44%.
Anything wrong in my reasoning?
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cardsman1992
Old 09-25-2008, 03:53 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Too many people left to act PF to make me want to call this. Put me on the button and put another caller in between, then let's talk.

I think KQ bets the turn mostly, unless he considers two pair a monster and missed his checkraise.

I don't think a river call is horrible but I expect to be beat a fair amount too.
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elipsesjeff
Old 09-25-2008, 04:41 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 [quote="jimmy44
A SC will make: FD/Flush/2pairs/Trips/Full-house/StraightDraw or made 26,18% of the time on the flop. This would allow us to play some poker IP and against a light c-bettor. Where we should be able to steal often the pot adds a +EV move.
I prefer to 3bet something like QJo against this player for which the above percentage goes down to 14,44%.
Anything wrong in my reasoning?[/quote]

Well, i just don't think he raises suited connectors here enough to put the combinations in his range, maybe 25% of the time he gets a suited connector he'll raise in this spot?

What's your plan when you miss the flop? Considering you said he likes to c/r turns then floating the flop and betting the turn probably isn't the best move. Raising the flop polarizes your range but might work sometimes and just calling like you did and checking behind turns your hand face up in this situation.


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Renton
Old 09-25-2008, 05:00 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 great job actually posting reads and history in your op, ppl should take a lesson from that

its an easy call though, are u wondering if u should raise?

and yes the first hand was a call too
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jimmy44
Old 09-25-2008, 06:40 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cardsman1992
Too many people left to act PF to make me want to call this. Put me on the button and put another caller in between, then let's talk.
I agree that this is marginal, from BU or CO it's much better.
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jimmy44
Old 09-25-2008, 06:48 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmy44
A SC will make: FD/Flush/2pairs/Trips/Full-house/StraightDraw or made 26,18% of the time on the flop. This would allow us to play some poker IP and against a light c-bettor. Where we should be able to steal often the pot adds a +EV move.
I prefer to 3bet something like QJo against this player for which the above percentage goes down to 14,44%.
Anything wrong in my reasoning?
Well, i just don't think he raises suited connectors here enough to put the combinations in his range, maybe 25% of the time he gets a suited connector he'll raise in this spot?

What's your plan when you miss the flop? Considering you said he likes to c/r turns then floating the flop and betting the turn probably isn't the best move. Raising the flop polarizes your range but might work sometimes and just calling like you did and checking behind turns your hand face up in this situation.
Hand like AK/AQ/AJ/AT all raise PF and c-bet this flop. All-in would give up most of the time on the FLOP is missed.
I missed the percentage of his c/r turn. He c/r TURN about 16%, which is a decent amount at this level.
I see what you mean. But when I said steal the pot I also mean raising his C-bet. However, in this situation we should not raise as we have good showdown value and we would him to check turn and bet river OOP with a weaker hand.
On another flop, I might raise.
The problem with betting this TURN is that it would hardly get called from weaker hands. If the turn was a 2, then betting the turn might even get calls from 88-JJ.
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BankItDrew
Old 09-25-2008, 06:50 PM #11 (permalink)  
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 I like a blocking bet on the turn then a value bet on river if villain checks through again.


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jimmy44
Old 09-25-2008, 06:50 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
great job actually posting reads and history in your op, ppl should take a lesson from that

its an easy call though, are u wondering if u should raise?

and yes the first hand was a call too
Thanks!
Actually, I was wondering what hands can we put villain on here.
I was not intending to raise
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Renton
Old 09-25-2008, 07:08 PM #13 (permalink)  
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 aa ak aq?
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Miffed22001
Old 09-25-2008, 09:00 PM #14 (permalink)  
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 i check the turn to induce a bluff so why you consider folding i dont know.
Hes betting Aq for value here for sure, and AK
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jimmy44
Old 10-02-2008, 01:39 PM #15 (permalink)  
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 Sorry for the late reply but I was away for some days.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
aa ak aq?
Yeah, I figure something like that would bet here, but something like 88/TT would c/f or c/c.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
i check the turn to induce a bluff so why you consider folding i dont know.
Hes betting Aq for value here for sure, and AK
I was not intending on folding due to the turn check, but I wanted to check what you guys thought on villain's range.

For the results oriented, I called (of course) and villain showed KK for a set of Ks. He really wanted to c/r turn.
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