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jessyj
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09-20-2009, 06:49 AM
Post subject: 200 - flopped trips and unsure oop
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#1 (permalink)
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 90
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Villain here is a 16/8 bad semireg. pfr was 64/29 over 70 hands. I assume everything up to the turn is pretty standard.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($200)
UTG ($277.95)
MP1 ($201.35)
Hero (MP2) ($200)
CO ($434.40)
Button ($200)
SB ($209)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 7 , 8
UTG bets $4, 1 fold, Hero calls $4, CO calls $4, 3 folds
Flop: ($15) 8 , 8 , 6 (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $10, CO raises to $28, 1 fold, Hero calls $18
Turn: ($71) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $40, Hero
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Board: 8c 8d 6s Ts
Hand 0: 55.978% { 8h7h }
Hand 1: 44.022% { TT-99, 77-66, A8s, T8s, 97s, 86s+, 75s }
I would call
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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In what way is he bad? God this spot sucks, I think your pretty much screwed a lot of the time and have to make a ridiculous fold. It's a spot where he's very unlikely to be bluffing and 99/77 are optimistic to say the least.. I think 75s is just about the only hand we beat, there are 3 combos and we potentially have to face a river shove without knowing how this guy plays..
If you think he is bad enough to overplay QQ-AA in this way or spewy (or maybe creative given how I want to fold here) enough to do this with air obviously this is a fistpump.
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99/77 are optimistic, sure, but he's IP so he might be doing the "I bet turn so you check to me on the river" and he turned a gutshot
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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At the very least 99/77 needs to be weighted to 1/3 of the combos or something, since the vast vast majority of the time they will either call the flop or turn. I actually think 3 out of the nine combos is still generous and we should maybe just do 1 combos of 9 or something. Then take into account the reverse implied odds of him potentially shoving river and tell me you still want to call this turn.
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Board: 8c 8d 6s Ts
Hand 0: 43.912% { 8h7h }
Hand 1: 56.088% { TcTh, 9c9s, 7c7s, 66, A8s, T8s, 97s, 86s+, 75s }
left one combo of 77,99,TT each
when we bink a 7 we stack everything but TT, T8 so we have some positive implied odds on a 7 and not such great odds on a 9
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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I just feel like calling is going to put us in a whole world of pain on most rivers. Are you calling with the intention of calling a shove on a blank river? Without knowing at all how villain plays we don't know a thing about his river bluffing frequencies and essentially we have a bluffcatcher here.
I think folding the turn is at worst a small mistake vs. his range, yet it stops us from making a potentially huge mistake on the river by either calling in a spot where he's never bluffing or folding in a spot where there are enough bluffs in his range. I guess that we should try and approximate a bluffing frequency based on the limited information we have, but that's pretty damn impossible.
I hate this spot, we're behind his value range and have no idea how much he's bluffing. Let's just GTFO.
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3k post - Return of the blog!
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jessyj
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 90
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Badgers, this hand was played in Jan and marked but forgot to post till now so don't remember specific reads since this guy doesn't play anymore. I just remember from his posts on 2p2 he seemed bad but not sure it was overaggro or nitty. Since it is full ring I just assume nitty 
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wordtothewise
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Two Pair
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 35
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What is his cb stat? You were repping air, 8x,57,fh,pp when you raised. When you call and check the turn what are you repping now? He is probably pulled 8x from your range and can remove air so he assume you have a hand like QQ, JJ so you gotta call.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by badgers
I just feel like calling is going to put us in a whole world of pain on most rivers. Are you calling with the intention of calling a shove on a blank river? Without knowing at all how villain plays we don't know a thing about his river bluffing frequencies and essentially we have a bluffcatcher here.
I think folding the turn is at worst a small mistake vs. his range, yet it stops us from making a potentially huge mistake on the river by either calling in a spot where he's never bluffing or folding in a spot where there are enough bluffs in his range. I guess that we should try and approximate a bluffing frequency based on the limited information we have, but that's pretty damn impossible.
I hate this spot, we're behind his value range and have no idea how much he's bluffing. Let's just GTFO.
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Umm, so if there's any hard decision we should fold? Might as well not play poker at all
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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Yes that's exactly what I said.
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3k post - Return of the blog!
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jessyj
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 90
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by wordtothewise
What is his cb stat? You were repping air, 8x,57,fh,pp when you raised. When you call and check the turn what are you repping now? He is probably pulled 8x from your range and can remove air so he assume you have a hand like QQ, JJ so you gotta call.
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I should never have QQ/JJ and possibly not TT/99 for an obvious reason here. His cb% doesn't matter because 1) he wasn't the pfr and 2) I'm sure it's quite high considering he only raises 8% of hands.
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wordtothewise
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Two Pair
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 35
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jessyj
Quote:
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Originally Posted by wordtothewise
What is his cb stat? You were repping air, 8x,57,fh,pp when you raised. When you call and check the turn what are you repping now? He is probably pulled 8x from your range and can remove air so he assume you have a hand like QQ, JJ so you gotta call.
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I should never have QQ/JJ and possibly not TT/99 for an obvious reason here. His cb% doesn't matter because 1) he wasn't the pfr and 2) I'm sure it's quite high considering he only raises 8% of hands. |
This is why you don't post early in the AM. My bad. However,I am a little confused how you will never show up with QQ-tt here.
What line do you take with qq-tt? I don't normally 3 bet these hands to a utg raise. Are you checking these hands to the co and then figuring out what to do after his action? I am basically just trying to understand what your perceived range is with your action and what that does to his range.
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