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2/5 flopped set OOP vs preflop limp rr

  
 
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Margin Of Error
Old 01-23-2007, 07:37 AM     Post subject: 2/5 flopped set OOP vs preflop limp rr #1 (permalink)  
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hero $1400
villian (presumed donk) $350

4 limpers
hero makes it $22 from BB with
UTG calls
villian reraises to $62
hero calls
UTG folds

flop comes

hero checks
villian bets $70 into $140 pot.
hero shoves.
She looked at me and said youz a baby right?
I told her, I'm 18 and live a crazy life
Plus I'll tell you what the 80's like
And I know what ladies like
 
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nutsinho
Old 01-23-2007, 01:03 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 bad call preflop
My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
 
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Margin Of Error
Old 01-23-2007, 03:56 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsinho
bad call preflop

I know sort of but with all the dead money am I not almost getting odds to call?
She looked at me and said youz a baby right?
I told her, I'm 18 and live a crazy life
Plus I'll tell you what the 80's like
And I know what ladies like
 
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nutsinho
Old 01-23-2007, 04:32 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 Option 1: fold
EV=0

Option 2: call
assume: you cannot ever profitably continue postflop without a set
the following is not precise but it should be close
EV= (88.2(-40) + 10.6(399) + 1.2( -328))/100
EV= (-3528+ 4229.4 -393.6)/100
EV= 307.8/100
EV= $3.08 assuming all the money goes in every time you flop a set

under this assumption then i guess its a good call but in practice he may not stack off every time you outflop him
My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
 
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Margin Of Error
Old 01-23-2007, 05:49 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsinho
Option 1: fold
EV=0

Option 2: call
assume: you cannot ever profitably continue postflop without a set
the following is not precise but it should be close
EV= (88.2(-40) + 10.6(399) + 1.2( -328))/100
EV= (-3528+ 4229.4 -393.6)/100
EV= 307.8/100
EV= $3.08 assuming all the money goes in every time you flop a set

under this assumption then i guess its a good call but in practice he may not stack off every time you outflop him
I think unless villian has KK and an A comes on the flop hes felting this every time. You can pretty much solely put him on KK/AA with the preflop action right?
She looked at me and said youz a baby right?
I told her, I'm 18 and live a crazy life
Plus I'll tell you what the 80's like
And I know what ladies like
 
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nutsinho
Old 01-23-2007, 10:29 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 yeah stuff like KK on A-high flop hurts, also it takes a particularly daft opponent to actively try to get it all in with AA when the flop is like KK2. Also, a LRR with AK is a possibility and that hurts for obvious reasons as well (youll probably win a large cbet but he wont stick it all in that often). Lastly, I don't know the exact percentages but I may have been a TAD generous in the flopped set condition winning and losing percentages (it may be like 10.5/1.3 instead of 10.6/1.2). All in all I think we have a slightly losing play here, but obviously its not at all a big mistake.
My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
 
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