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2/4 2nd Nuts + Nuts Blockers

  
 
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aka_red
Old 10-17-2008, 02:10 AM     Post subject: 2/4 2nd Nuts + Nuts Blockers #1 (permalink)  
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Villain is 17/4/8 over small sample of 70 hands. Other than that no reads.

BB ($400)
UTG ($92.70)
UTG+1 ($551.50)
MP1 ($187.20)
MP2 ($414.90)
MP3 ($473.95)
Hero (CO) ($499.55)
Button ($84.75)
SB ($76)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 10, 10
3 folds, MP2 raises to $12, 1 fold, Hero calls $12, 3 folds

Flop: ($30) K, Q, J (2 players)
MP2 bets $20, Hero calls $20

Turn: ($70) 9 (2 players)
MP2 bets $56, Hero raises to $128, MP2 raises to $382.90 (All-In), Hero ?

ETC.
I have Ts.
Can AT be discounted due to low PFR?
There are 8 combos of AT.
We are getting 3.3:1 on a call.
So wee need like 30% equity or so.

I would like to see ranges not SNAP CALL, FIST PUMP ALRIGHT, EZ FOLD, etc.
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Deanglow
Old 10-17-2008, 02:32 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 Explain your raise size please
 
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daven
Old 10-17-2008, 02:59 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 do you only display 3 stats on HUD? and if that is aggression factor, then why do you use aggression factor? if there are other stats, they help here.
Anyway...

He's not in a steal spot, I think a wide pf range he opens from MP2 here is 99+/AJs+ and other suited broadways (so that gives two combos of AT). He's more likely open limping some of that though.

He's gonna be c-betting all of that range on this flop. He also may "know" that you 3-bet JJ/QQ/KK pre, and THIS IS KEY re-raise the flop oesd....

Your re-raise on the flop looks a bunch like some sort of AsJs/two pair/maybe even 999 - so getting it in here with most of his range described above makes sense. Get it in, and hope he doesn't suck out.
don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

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bigspenda73
Old 10-17-2008, 03:00 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.773% 29.55% 35.23% 91 108.50 { TT, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs }
Hand 1: 35.227% 00.00% 35.23% 0 108.50 { ThTs }
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elipsesjeff
Old 10-17-2008, 02:29 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 I don't think he has AT here very much at all, and if he did ever then it'd be a cooler.

I put his range on 99+ and AsKs and ATs might be in his PFR raising range, so at best 2 combos of that. I'd have a hard time putting you on AT also so I'd probably get it in with all sets and hope to boat up.


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BankItDrew
Old 10-17-2008, 07:53 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 9Tc FTW

I don't see how you can fold this


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Technooo
Old 10-23-2008, 05:40 AM #7 (permalink)  

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I don't see how you can fold this either. You have the 2nd nuts.

Villain may have AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AT-JT, KQ, QJ. You're ahead against all hands but one and spilt with several, while any Ax hand has two outs to win with a T and may have flush outs. I think you're ahead 80-20 more than half the time.
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wakeup
Old 10-23-2008, 05:49 AM #8 (permalink)  
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he's raising 4% of hands its gotta be reasonably strong from MP1. i get it in on the turn
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