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pokerfan
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07-03-2009, 06:34 PM
Post subject: 100NL, what else can i do with 99 ?
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,731
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villian is a regular running 17/14/5.1. His 3 bet% is 3%. Do you think that my 99 is good enough to stand the heat given that villian DB on this drawy board?
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (Button) ($107.60)
SB ($121.95)
BB ($127.15)
UTG ($160.45)
UTG+1 ($98.50)
MP1 ($121.80)
MP2 ($124.35)
CO ($106.95)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 9 , 9
5 folds, Hero bets $3, 1 fold, BB raises $10, Hero calls $8
Flop: ($22.50) 5, 2, 7 (2 players)
BB bets $14, Hero calls $14
Turn: ($50.50) 8 (2 players)
BB bets $23, Hero shove, fold or call ?
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I don't know, if you're not shoving here, why are you playing 99 to a 3b at all
you have 15 outs vs. black aces and you're ahead of a naked ace of hearts
but folding pf is not bad either since 3% is JJ+,AK exactly (sample size?)
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jessyj
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 90
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
I don't know, if you're not shoving here, why are you playing 99 to a 3b at all
you have 15 outs vs. black aces and you're ahead of a naked ace of hearts
but folding pf is not bad either since 3% is JJ+,AK exactly (sample size?)
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Agree with the first part. Disagree the second because 3% is his overall 3b% but vs. a button raise it has to widen.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jessyj
Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
I don't know, if you're not shoving here, why are you playing 99 to a 3b at all
you have 15 outs vs. black aces and you're ahead of a naked ace of hearts
but folding pf is not bad either since 3% is JJ+,AK exactly (sample size?)
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Agree with the first part. Disagree the second because 3% is his overall 3b% but vs. a button raise it has to widen. |
can't widen or overall would be higher
DUCY
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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There are definitely guys who only 3b KK, AA in any other spot, but will defend their blinds. I'd look at the vs-steal 3b if you got enough hands.
I def. fold oop, I might fold if he 3b from the sb, but I think you can call here.
As played... yeah... shove fold or call. :P
I have no idea.
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jessyj
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 90
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
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Originally Posted by jessyj
Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
I don't know, if you're not shoving here, why are you playing 99 to a 3b at all
you have 15 outs vs. black aces and you're ahead of a naked ace of hearts
but folding pf is not bad either since 3% is JJ+,AK exactly (sample size?)
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Agree with the first part. Disagree the second because 3% is his overall 3b% but vs. a button raise it has to widen. |
can't widen or overall would be higher
DUCY |
No, I don't. If he 3bets 0 from ep and mp then naturally his 3b is wider in other positions.
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pokerfan
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,731
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This guy was very active and raised a lot at other tables.So I really think that he is capable of 3betting and double barrelling as well with a wide range given his small bet sizing on the turn.
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Parasurama
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: DMT
Posts: 820
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I'm going to say that you shouldn't call
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jessyj
Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
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Originally Posted by jessyj
Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
I don't know, if you're not shoving here, why are you playing 99 to a 3b at all
you have 15 outs vs. black aces and you're ahead of a naked ace of hearts
but folding pf is not bad either since 3% is JJ+,AK exactly (sample size?)
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Agree with the first part. Disagree the second because 3% is his overall 3b% but vs. a button raise it has to widen. |
can't widen or overall would be higher
DUCY |
No, I don't. If he 3bets 0 from ep and mp then naturally his 3b is wider in other positions. |
so you're saying he's flatting AA from UTG+1
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kmind
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Not Giving In
Posts: 4,234
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Fold preflop
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Alexos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Montreal
Posts: 2,739
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
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Originally Posted by jessyj
Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
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Originally Posted by jessyj
Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
I don't know, if you're not shoving here, why are you playing 99 to a 3b at all
you have 15 outs vs. black aces and you're ahead of a naked ace of hearts
but folding pf is not bad either since 3% is JJ+,AK exactly (sample size?)
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Agree with the first part. Disagree the second because 3% is his overall 3b% but vs. a button raise it has to widen. |
can't widen or overall would be higher
DUCY |
No, I don't. If he 3bets 0 from ep and mp then naturally his 3b is wider in other positions. |
so you're saying he's flatting AA from UTG+1 |
r u kidding
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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Alexos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Montreal
Posts: 2,739
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He's saying vs a BTN open he might 3bet 7%, but vs a UTG open he might 0% resulting in 3% 3bet overall in this position...
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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jessyj
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 90
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
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Originally Posted by jessyj
No, I don't. IF he 3bets 0 from ep and mp then naturally his 3b is wider in other positions.
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so you're saying he's flatting AA from UTG+1 |
See that.
Quote:
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He's saying vs a BTN open he might 3bet 7%, but vs a UTG open he might 0% resulting in 3% 3bet overall in this position...
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This is pretty much what I was saying...
Quote:
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Originally Posted by jessyj
3% is his overall 3b% but vs. a button raise it has to widen.
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
Posts: 777
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jessyj
Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
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Originally Posted by jessyj
No, I don't. IF he 3bets 0 from ep and mp then naturally his 3b is wider in other positions.
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so you're saying he's flatting AA from UTG+1 |
See that.
Quote:
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He's saying vs a BTN open he might 3bet 7%, but vs a UTG open he might 0% resulting in 3% 3bet overall in this position...
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This is pretty much what I was saying...
Quote:
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Originally Posted by jessyj
3% is his overall 3b% but vs. a button raise it has to widen.
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Yeah and since this is a oop 3b this becomes <3% 3b. Fold pre
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pokerfan
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,731
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Jesus christ, he had AxTh 
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Alexos
Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
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Originally Posted by jessyj
Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
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Originally Posted by jessyj
Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
I don't know, if you're not shoving here, why are you playing 99 to a 3b at all
you have 15 outs vs. black aces and you're ahead of a naked ace of hearts
but folding pf is not bad either since 3% is JJ+,AK exactly (sample size?)
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Agree with the first part. Disagree the second because 3% is his overall 3b% but vs. a button raise it has to widen. |
can't widen or overall would be higher
DUCY |
No, I don't. If he 3bets 0 from ep and mp then naturally his 3b is wider in other positions. |
so you're saying he's flatting AA from UTG+1 |
r u kidding |
no im obv super duper serial
but anyway I think playing 99 here is going to be about as difficult as playing AQo
well it's not like we have any equity at all, it's just going to be really tough and we might have to minraise+1 some flops for protection against getting barreled and folding to a flop 3b or some crazy lines like that
we stack him 1/20 of the time or something when we flop a set
we get stacked the remaining 1/100 of the time
so we gain a stack 3% of the time (flop set and get it in 5% of the time, lose to suck out or higher set 1% of the time) so that's a 3bb profit from set minan
we need to get a 4bb profit from making him fold AK/bluff or show it down without beating us
it's possible because we're IP, but difficult
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Alexos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Montreal
Posts: 2,739
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ZwiFT
Quote:
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Originally Posted by jessyj
Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
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Originally Posted by jessyj
No, I don't. IF he 3bets 0 from ep and mp then naturally his 3b is wider in other positions.
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so you're saying he's flatting AA from UTG+1 |
See that.
Quote:
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He's saying vs a BTN open he might 3bet 7%, but vs a UTG open he might 0% resulting in 3% 3bet overall in this position...
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This is pretty much what I was saying...
Quote:
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Originally Posted by jessyj
3% is his overall 3b% but vs. a button raise it has to widen.
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Yeah and since this is a oop 3b this becomes <3% 3b. Fold pre |
if his range is QQ+,AK.. its a call preflop
and ur statement is wrong, why would u assume his 3betting of a BTN open would be narrower than an UTG open when its obv wider even if he's oop
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
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pokerfan
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,731
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folding 99 on BT to SB/BB 3 bet seems very exploitable.
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,405
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ZwiFT
Yeah and since this is a oop 3b this becomes <3% 3b.
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Not necessarily.
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
Posts: 777
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I need to stop posting when im drunk, I missread and i agree with the prev statement that his 3b% here is wider than his 3b% vs a utg villain.
What i was trying to say is that his btn (ip) 3bet is alot wider which increases his 3b%, where his 3b% vs a utg is thin. Since his ip 3b% is wider this would lower his oop 3b% based on the equation that his total 3b% is 3%, But in this spot still wider than 3%.
For me, this is a call if your player is straight forward postflop. You can win by having the best hand and almost all turncards come to your advantage since you can rep alot of hands. However if this is a tricky opponent all turncards come in his advantage and i'd rather fold this preflop since we have to give him some credit because of his low 3b%.
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Seabass
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Straight
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: trying not to die
Posts: 205
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by pokerfan
folding 99 on BT to SB/BB 3 bet seems very exploitable.
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But will they exploit it?
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
Posts: 777
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Seabass
Quote:
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Originally Posted by pokerfan
folding 99 on BT to SB/BB 3 bet seems very exploitable.
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But will they exploit it? |
So is folding QQ/Ak to a btn 3b when your playing from utg. But it's still the correct play most of the situations in today's games.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ZwiFT
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Seabass
Quote:
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Originally Posted by pokerfan
folding 99 on BT to SB/BB 3 bet seems very exploitable.
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But will they exploit it? |
So is folding QQ/Ak to a btn 3b when your playing from utg. But it's still the correct play most of the situations in today's games. |
I actually exploit this in 6m where I'll 3b UTG players maybe 20% of the time light
people do fold a lot because they never suspect you're doing it light if you do it a normal-looking % of the time
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
Posts: 777
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
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Originally Posted by ZwiFT
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Seabass
Quote:
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Originally Posted by pokerfan
folding 99 on BT to SB/BB 3 bet seems very exploitable.
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But will they exploit it? |
So is folding QQ/Ak to a btn 3b when your playing from utg. But it's still the correct play most of the situations in today's games. |
I actually exploit this in 6m where I'll 3b UTG players maybe 20% of the time light
people do fold a lot because they never suspect you're doing it light if you do it a normal-looking % of the time |
I do too =) But most players don't and since im aware of it i think i notice pretty fast if one keeps 3b my utg pretty light ! But until ido my std is just to fold
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