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100nl TPTK on paired board

  
 
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KillsAids
Old 08-03-2009, 04:07 PM     Post subject: 100nl TPTK on paired board #1 (permalink)  
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Opponent is eggspoon, 12/8 regular. We haven't gotten into spots together, so no meta, I don't think he has a reason to bluff here. He usually does not 3b vs EP so he definately can have QQ+/AK in his range. I think I'd bet like 8.5 on flop usually, this was probably a misclick. I'm thinking the Ah being in our hand means he's more likely to have a hand than a drawy hand, and I think he's confident in his hand enough to slowplay on flop and try to get more action from players behind, but I'm not sure.

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saw flop

UTG ($21)
Hero (UTG+1) ($101.50)
MP1 ($100)
MP2 ($18.50)
MP3 ($109.60)
CO ($100)
Button ($24.50)
SB ($49)
BB ($331.95)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A, Q
1 fold, Hero bets $4, MP1 calls $4, 2 folds, CO calls $4, 3 folds

Flop: ($13.50) Q, 8, 8 (3 players)
Hero bets $6.50, MP1 calls $6.50, 1 fold

Turn: ($26.50) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $17, MP1 raises to $42, Hero??
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badgers
Old 08-03-2009, 04:57 PM #2 (permalink)  
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wow this is gross, there's so little he can have but unless he's semibluffing SCs or turning a made hand into a bluff there is not a lot of air in his range either. I think your analysis is spot on and you need to fold but not be particularly happy about it.
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