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pokerfan
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06-28-2009, 02:42 AM
Post subject: 100NL,QQ in a tricky spot
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
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Mp3 is nitty 9/6/3.5 and a 3 bet % 1.4 over 900 hands. CO is a regular running 17/12/2.6 and a 3 bet% 2.3. BT (3 bet cold caller) is 34/12/1.7 over 20 hands. Whats the best move here for QQ?
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (MP1) ($192.45)
MP2 ($60)
MP3 ($108.85)
CO ($147.50)
Button ($103.30)
SB ($39)
BB ($49.90)
UTG ($119.65)
UTG+1 ($100)
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q , Q
2 folds, Hero bets $4, 1 fold, MP3 calls $4, CO raises $18, Button calls $18, 2 folds, Hero ?
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I would call although shipping it in is probably not a big mistake if it is one
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Beck
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 410
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wow I really hate this, folding is not a horrible mistake either.
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-Beck
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jessyj
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 90
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Do you have history and/or a retarded image? If not I'd fold w/o much thought.
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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shipping is probably a massive mistake 150BB deep
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3k post - Return of the blog!
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
Posts: 778
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I don't see any other play than call?
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Da GOAT
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Dublin
Posts: 4,308
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fold>call>4bet
only we are deep, opps have 100bb
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Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
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pokerfan
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jessyj
Do you have history and/or a retarded image? If not I'd fold w/o much thought.
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i had 4 bet/5 bet shove history with CO at another table in Button/SB war. His QQ won the flip vs my AK.
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Da GOAT
fold>call>4bet
only we are deep, opps have 100bb
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lies
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3k post - Return of the blog!
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
Posts: 778
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Da GOAT
fold>call>4bet
only we are deep, opps have 100bb
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dubblelies
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Deanglow
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
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folding looks pretty awful, raising slightly less so.
call and play a flop
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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folding is ok
calling is slightly better
shoving is bad with this hand specifically, but would fine with AK or a suited ace.
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
Posts: 778
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
folding is ok
calling is slightly better
shoving is bad with this hand specifically, but would fine with AK or a suited ace.
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Its abit retarded to say folding is ok and calling is slightly better, when in cashgames you "should" take every +50% equity after rake, all the odds and foldequity as you can do. And this seems like an easy spot to analyze and do that on, and is also very easy to play post flop. I'm pretty sure raising AKo/s here is -ev because the little fold equity we have, even if we were 100bb deep.. I can calculate it later on
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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yes, i agree, its definitely retarded to say +$0.05 ev with potential 140bb deviations is slightly better than 0 ev with 0 deviation.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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as for whether its good to shove AK or a suited ace, thats obviously assuming there is fold equity, which i think htere is for sure, as the deep 3bettor should seriously consider folding qq and ak
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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I've been watching this thread because I have no idea what I would do.
My first impulse was raise to 35, and hope to get CO to either tank or shove fast, but if he calls and Button calls... and blah... it's all very bad.
If you're calling, you're pretty much set mining and hoping MP3 comes along? I mean, what's the plan on J92, 458...?
The reason why I liked raising initially was because we're pretty likely to have mp3 and btn in bad shape and we turn them into dead money and get to play HU with CO.
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pokerfan
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
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In the heat of the moment, i chose to call and decided to proceed with caution OOP. Yeah, i do think that calling is slightly better than other options. The question here is how we play our overpairs on the flop with 3 low cards in a 4-way 3 bet pot.
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (MP1) ($192.45)
MP2 ($60)
MP3 ($108.85)
CO ($147.50)
Button ($103.30)
SB ($39)
BB ($49.90)
UTG ($119.65)
UTG+1 ($100)
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q, Q
2 folds, Hero bets $4, 1 fold, MP3 calls $4, CO raises $18, Button calls $18, 2 folds, Hero calls $14, MP3 calls $14
Flop: ($73.50) T , 7 , 6 (4 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, Button bets $41, Hero ?
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
Posts: 778
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
as for whether its good to shove AK or a suited ace, thats obviously assuming there is fold equity, which i think htere is for sure, as the deep 3bettor should seriously consider folding qq and ak
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Taking into consideration:
- CO has QQ+AK in his range, and fold QQ and AK 100% of the time
- Button and MP3 folds 100% of the time to your shove
Even with this, shoving AK here is big -EV total, not to mention the big deviation it will cause.
I agree that folding QQ here is ok because of the high deviation, esp if your a player who get easy tilted for big losses, but remember that big deviation can also cause huge upswings! Besides the deviation for fullring is so low in general that I dont mind it at all
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
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Folding preflop would make us extremely exploitable so i agree with Deanglow. If the squeezer had nittier stats I'd have less of a problem letting it go. I'd like to know his SB/BB/squeeze 3bet %s over just a general % before I give this number any credit.
As played I ship the flop.
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mcatdog
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 3,654
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I would fold if the CO bet the flop but shove against the button. Sucks if MP3 wakes up with a big hand but I don't think that will happen too often.
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surviva316
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Confusing people with my liberal biblicisms
Posts: 1,625
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ZwiFT
I agree that folding QQ here is ok because of the high deviation, esp if your a player who get easy tilted for big losses, but remember that big deviation can also cause huge upswings! Besides the deviation for fullring is so low in general that I dont mind it at all
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Renton's $0.05 w 140bb deviation was obviously a bit of an exaggeration, but if this scenario happened like once every 20,000 hands, you could literally play millions of hands and never make a single dime from making the right play here (if there's a $.05 EV with that big of a deviation for a given decision)...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
I just wanted to share singing vaginas.  |
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
yes, i agree, its definitely retarded to say +$0.05 ev with potential 140bb deviations is slightly better than 0 ev with 0 deviation.
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it is slightly better
it's $0.05 better duh
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Seabass
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Straight
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: trying not to die
Posts: 205
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Any raise pre is bad. Both calling and folding is ok imo. Your position aint great and your hand is marginal.
I assume people will (not the btn) be honest on the flop giving the preflop action. I might bet like 1/3 pot or so, a info/value bet if you will. I would like to avoid the spot you now find yourself in.
Like if I where the CO with AA here I would check a lot of the time knowing that the btn is almost sure to bet.
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Parasurama
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: DMT
Posts: 820
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BTN's betsizing looks soooooo strong to me
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pokerfan
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Parasurama
BTN's betsizing looks soooooo strong to me
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yeah, he bet strong with the second best hand. :P
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