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100NL, QQ semi-deep stacks in massive 3-way huge pot

  
 
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pokerfan
Old 05-28-2008, 04:14 PM     Post subject: 100NL, QQ semi-deep stacks in massive 3-way huge pot #1 (permalink)  
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hmmm, MP2 is loose donk (53/8.8/0.98) over 193 hands, button is a regular nit running 11.4/6.5/1.2. i think it's a purely REM(range,equity and maximization) analysis whether i should stack off or not. After donk's flat call and nit's insta massive shove on the flop, I put donk's range on AJ,KJ & nuts flush draw and nit's range on 3 sets(99,TT,JJ). Guys, Any Decision making process or thoughts ?? By the way, i'm definitely not playing scared money in any event at this level.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (7 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

CO ($98.50)
Button ($154.05)
SB ($132.45)
Hero ($294.80)
UTG ($75.45)
MP1 ($98)
MP2 ($121.25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, Q.
2 folds, MP2 raises to $4, 1 fold, Button calls $4, 1 fold, Hero raises to $18, MP2 calls $14, Button calls $14.

Flop: ($54.50) T, J, 9 (3 players)
Hero bets $34, MP2 calls $34, Button raises to $136.05, Hero ?
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Keilah
Old 05-28-2008, 05:56 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I see no reason MP2 couldn't have AA, KK, or KQ, so that needs to be in his range as well. Stove says you have 27-32% equity depending on how I tweak reasonable ranges, and you've got better pot odds than that even in MP2 folds, so call.

PS. I was in a very similar hand the other day with KK on a QJT board. I took it down unimproved.
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pokerfan
Old 05-29-2008, 12:01 AM #3 (permalink)  
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nice job. Were any passive nits involved in your hand?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Keilah
PS. I was in a very similar hand the other day with KK on a QJT board. I took it down unimproved.
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Keilah
Old 05-29-2008, 12:58 AM #4 (permalink)  
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I forget.

Also I just realized that I'm giving anecdotal evidence in a statistics game. No good.
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Fnord
Old 05-29-2008, 03:45 AM #5 (permalink)  
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...uh... reminds me of a really nasty suck-out I put on someone last weekend.

Anyway, I pot this flop and it sucks that the nit has a set but you're probably pot-fucked. Can someone Stove it?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Keilah
Old 05-29-2008, 07:05 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Already did. He's all-in.
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Seabass
Old 05-29-2008, 07:53 AM #7 (permalink)  
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It's a call.

The numbers looks right to me.
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jimmy44
Old 05-29-2008, 08:19 AM #8 (permalink)  
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 Yup, it's a call.

If nit calls we have the needed equity:

533,673 games 0.016 secs 33,354,562 games/sec

Board: Jh Th 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.234% 22.61% 05.63% 120643 30036.00 { QcQh }
Hand 1: 52.489% 49.47% 03.02% 264002 16116.00 { QQ-99, AhKh, KhQh }
Hand 2: 19.277% 16.38% 02.90% 87408 15468.00 { AhKh, AJs, KJs+, Kh9h, QTs+, Qh9h, J9s+, T9s, AJo, KJo+, QTo+, J9o+, T9o }


If nit folds, we also have good equity against villain:

Board: Jh Th 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.685% 58.04% 03.64% 41946 2634.00 { QcQh }
Hand 1: 38.315% 34.67% 03.64% 25056 2634.00 { AhKh, AJs, KJs+, Kh9h, QTs+, Qh9h, J9s+, T9s, AJo, KJo+, QTo+, J9o+, T9o }
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Seabass
Old 05-29-2008, 09:21 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmy44
Yup, it's a call.

If nit calls we have the needed equity:

533,673 games 0.016 secs 33,354,562 games/sec

Board: Jh Th 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.234% 22.61% 05.63% 120643 30036.00 { QcQh }
Hand 1: 52.489% 49.47% 03.02% 264002 16116.00 { QQ-99, AhKh, KhQh }
Hand 2: 19.277% 16.38% 02.90% 87408 15468.00 { AhKh, AJs, KJs+, Kh9h, QTs+, Qh9h, J9s+, T9s, AJo, KJo+, QTo+, J9o+, T9o }


If nit folds, we also have good equity against villain:

Board: Jh Th 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.685% 58.04% 03.64% 41946 2634.00 { QcQh }
Hand 1: 38.315% 34.67% 03.64% 25056 2634.00 { AhKh, AJs, KJs+, Kh9h, QTs+, Qh9h, J9s+, T9s, AJo, KJo+, QTo+, J9o+, T9o }
Nice and clean post, but you have the nit and the donk mixed up.
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pokerfan
Old 05-29-2008, 11:37 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Nit had TT but i still hate that damm Q on the turn.
easy triple up for the donk's KJ :P
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jimmy44
Old 05-29-2008, 05:34 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Seabass
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmy44
Yup, it's a call.

If nit calls we have the needed equity:

533,673 games 0.016 secs 33,354,562 games/sec

Board: Jh Th 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.234% 22.61% 05.63% 120643 30036.00 { QcQh }
Hand 1: 52.489% 49.47% 03.02% 264002 16116.00 { QQ-99, AhKh, KhQh }
Hand 2: 19.277% 16.38% 02.90% 87408 15468.00 { AhKh, AJs, KJs+, Kh9h, QTs+, Qh9h, J9s+, T9s, AJo, KJo+, QTo+, J9o+, T9o }


If nit folds, we also have good equity against villain:

Board: Jh Th 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.685% 58.04% 03.64% 41946 2634.00 { QcQh }
Hand 1: 38.315% 34.67% 03.64% 25056 2634.00 { AhKh, AJs, KJs+, Kh9h, QTs+, Qh9h, J9s+, T9s, AJo, KJo+, QTo+, J9o+, T9o }
Nice and clean post, but you have the nit and the donk mixed up.
Did I missed something?
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pokerfan
Old 05-29-2008, 06:11 PM #12 (permalink)  
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we gotta call nit's shove, so its impossible to get more than 35% equity, i guess.
i like this pokerstove:
242,004 games 0.016 secs 15,125,250 games/sec

Board: Jh Th 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.344% 22.62% 02.72% 54748 6586.67 { QcQh }
Hand 1: 54.979% 54.75% 00.22% 132507 543.67 { JJ-99, AhKh, AhQh }
Hand 2: 19.677% 16.93% 02.74% 40981 6637.67 { AhKh, AhQh, AJs, KhQh, Kh9h, QTs+, Qh9h, AJo, KJo+ }

Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmy44
If nit folds, we also have good equity against villain:

Board: Jh Th 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.685% 58.04% 03.64% 41946 2634.00 { QcQh }
Hand 1: 38.315% 34.67% 03.64% 25056 2634.00 { AhKh, AJs, KJs+, Kh9h, QTs+, Qh9h, J9s+, T9s, AJo, KJo+, QTo+, J9o+, T9o }
[/quote]
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Seabass
Old 05-29-2008, 08:42 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmy44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seabass
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmy44
Yup, it's a call.

If nit calls we have the needed equity:

533,673 games 0.016 secs 33,354,562 games/sec

Board: Jh Th 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.234% 22.61% 05.63% 120643 30036.00 { QcQh }
Hand 1: 52.489% 49.47% 03.02% 264002 16116.00 { QQ-99, AhKh, KhQh }
Hand 2: 19.277% 16.38% 02.90% 87408 15468.00 { AhKh, AJs, KJs+, Kh9h, QTs+, Qh9h, J9s+, T9s, AJo, KJo+, QTo+, J9o+, T9o }


If nit folds, we also have good equity against villain:

Board: Jh Th 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.685% 58.04% 03.64% 41946 2634.00 { QcQh }
Hand 1: 38.315% 34.67% 03.64% 25056 2634.00 { AhKh, AJs, KJs+, Kh9h, QTs+, Qh9h, J9s+, T9s, AJo, KJo+, QTo+, J9o+, T9o }
Nice and clean post, but you have the nit and the donk mixed up.
Did I missed something?
The nit is the pusher.
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jimmy44
Old 05-29-2008, 09:53 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Seabass
The nit is the pusher.
Opps

In the worst case scenario the nit has the following range:

Board: Jh Th 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.579% 33.77% 00.81% 3009 72.00 { QcQh }
Hand 1: 65.421% 64.61% 00.81% 5757 72.00 { JJ-99 }

So it's a call!
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