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100NL, QQ in a 3 bet pot facing flop cbet raise

  
 
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pokerfan
Old 08-06-2009, 08:01 PM     Post subject: 100NL, QQ in a 3 bet pot facing flop cbet raise #1 (permalink)  
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opponent is 18/15/3.5 with 1% 3 bet over 400 hands. His ATS% is 29%. Should we ever fold or just insta shove? My analysis is that I have good pot equity vs his entire range only if he raises with TT-JJ. Otherwise, my hand got crushed. Also, its likely that he slowplayed KK+ preflop given his lower 3 bet%.
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($233.45)
UTG ($98.50)
UTG+1 ($42.80)
MP1 ($44.20)
MP2 ($117.40)
MP3 ($15.50)
CO ($18.50)
Button ($42.65)
Hero (SB) ($181.10)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, Q
3 folds, MP2 bets $3, 3 folds, Hero raises $12.50, 1 fold, MP2 calls $10

Flop: ($27) 5, 9, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $18, MP2 raises $41, Hero ?
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badgers
Old 08-06-2009, 10:18 PM #2 (permalink)  
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so gay.

This deep I think it's a fold, I really think he has KK+ here a lot and he can also have 99. TT/JJ are really unlikely to play like this. He probably has air some of the time but most of the time I think we're crushed and his draws have really good equity against us so fold and cry.

I think calling preflop is better given how deep we are without history, given that we're OOP and expect him to flat KK+ to a 3bet. That may be slightly results oriented after seeing this shit spot but honestly I think it's best.
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pokerfan
Old 08-07-2009, 08:32 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by badgers
so gay.

This deep I think it's a fold, I really think he has KK+ here a lot and he can also have 99. TT/JJ are really unlikely to play like this. He probably has air some of the time but most of the time I think we're crushed and his draws have really good equity against us so fold and cry.

I think calling preflop is better given how deep we are without history, given that we're OOP and expect him to flat KK+ to a 3bet. That may be slightly results oriented after seeing this shit spot but honestly I think it's best.
yeah, i used to shove this over cuz its a drawy flop in a 3 bet pot. Meh,we cant really apply 6-max aggressive mindset to FR nitty games.
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badgers
Old 08-07-2009, 09:36 PM #4 (permalink)  
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I think that is still valid a lot of the time given and against anyone who I had established an aggro 3betting dynamic with I would def shove over here without much thought.
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