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100NL, nuts flush draw facing heat in stealing positions

  
 
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pokerfan
Old 11-05-2009, 04:40 AM     Post subject: 100NL, nuts flush draw facing heat in stealing positions #1 (permalink)  
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hand 1: villain is booger369, a regular running 14/10/3 ( ATS% is 33% something) i knew he didnt hit sets after he flat my 3 bet on this wet flop. So i guess my turn PSB shove would rep incredible strength, right? I definitely take this line with TOP two or sets vs most FR nits. How do you guys think about my fold equity in this situation?
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($118.65)
Hero (SB) ($104)
BB ($127.75)
UTG ($73.85)
UTG+1 ($112.10)
MP1 ($100)
MP2 ($118.10)
CO ($100)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, J
5 folds, Button bets $2, Hero calls $1.50, BB calls $1

Flop: ($6) 10, Q, 5 (3 players)
Hero bets $4, 1 fold, Button raises $12, Hero raises $32, Button calls $20

Turn: ($70) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $70 (All-In)

hand 2: another regular running 12/10/3 something( ATS% is 32%).His cbet% is 68%. Most of these players probably have higher steal% in SB vs BB. I'm not sure whether i should call this shove after my flop raise. Maybe we can float and take down the pot on the turn? Is my flop raise pretty bad?I doubt i have 40%+ equity vs his AQ, 44-55, QQ+ unless he shoves with worse flush draw. My problem is I rarely give ppl too much credit for a big hand in SB vs BB war.
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($104.70)
UTG ($100)
UTG+1 ($50)
MP1 ($167.30)
MP2 ($100)
CO ($100)
Button ($163.15)
SB ($114)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, 10
6 folds, SB bets $2.50, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($6) Q, 5, 4 (2 players)
SB bets $5, Hero raises $15, SB raises $106 (All-In), Hero ?
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sk8r_daniel
Old 11-05-2009, 08:03 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Hand 1:
My best guess is he has... KQ, KJ, J9, 8c9c, AQo, KcTc, Tc9c, Tc8c,
And.. QT, 55, but you say he rereraises the flop w/ them. How sure of you are this?

You are beating most of that range to begin with, and have 25% equity agains KQ, 20% against AQ.

If you really think he repops you with 2 pair and sets I say just keep betting because you are way ahead of his range anyways.

Board: Qc Td 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.938% 66.58% 00.36% 24389 130.50 { AcJc }
Hand 1: 33.062% 32.71% 00.36% 11980 130.50 { KcTc, Tc9c, Tc8c, 9c8c, AQo, KJo+, J9o }
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TerryToma
Old 11-06-2009, 01:00 AM #3 (permalink)  
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I like hand 1 as played, seems ok. 7d is likely a blank and if he wasnt willing to play for stacks on flop will likely fold turn. If he calls you have enough outs to race.

Hand 2 FOLD, looks like he's got you. I dont think you have equity to call as above.
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aka_red
Old 11-06-2009, 08:07 AM #4 (permalink)  
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i don't understand leading the flop in 1.
2 is pretty obviously a fold?
also i want to hear your reason for raising.
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pokerfan
Old 11-06-2009, 04:16 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by reDZill4
i don't understand leading the flop in 1.
2 is pretty obviously a fold?
also i want to hear your reason for raising.
hand 1:Our relative position is poor.So I'd rather lead out into a weak BT range with my monster drawing hands especially in a 3 way pot here.
hand 2:i think my flop raise has great fold equity vs lots of weak showdown value hands(AK,AJ,medium pairs) in his sb open range.
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daven
Old 11-07-2009, 07:48 AM #6 (permalink)  
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 hand 1 I like leading but I don't 3-bet the flop without fold equity.
hand 2 flop raise is fine, but $80 into $208 pretty easy fold?
you know i can't read your ghost sig bro, i've been internalising a really complicated situation in my head
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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