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06-10-2008, 10:38 PM
Post subject: 100NL Lots of outs vs post-flop squeeze
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#1 (permalink)
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http://weaktight.com/229009
Villain was 24/18 w/ fold to c-bet of 0 over 100 hands. What's my play here?
Edit: AF of 3.33
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d0zer
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 2,521
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It's hard to imagine that you're currently beating him, but you probably have 12 outs to if you're not so....felt it?
My knee kinda jerks towards the 'all-in' button whenever I have a gutshot royal flush draw 
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ATOTHEC101
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Full House
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,248
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yeah id felt this, 2nd nut flush draw plus str8 draw also likely being good not to mention we have top pair...any more than 100 bbs deep id have to reconsider but as were only 100bbs deep arrr in. Obviously it doesnt look hugely likely we have much fold equity here but screw it, youve got a royal draw lol.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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I'd fold.
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ATOTHEC101
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Full House
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,248
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i must admit if it was my own money id probably fold to, always easier to tell people to shove when its not your money on the line. In relation to my previous post Ive probably given better advice :/.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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He's bluffing very rarely. It's an action flop and he's got to know it.
Flopped straight, set, weak flush and two pair make up a lot of his range and all of those hands (except maybe 2 pair) play this flop very fast looking for a sucker hand like heros to put lots of money in fast.
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wufwugy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,660
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easy fold as played. bottom of his range is sets, but straight/flush is more likely. pot is small
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I shoved figuring I had FE w/ a tonne of outs. Pretty huge mistake obv. Gotta make mistakes to learn from them though. Villain called and showed 9s4s.
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d0zer
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 2,521
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by wufwugy
pot is small
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I think this is the key I was missing. I knew we were already beat, but didn't think about the estimated equity vs current pot size.
Damn, I hate getting these wrong 
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Seabass
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Straight
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: trying not to die
Posts: 205
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I'm going to sound rude now but this is a standard donk spew.
All you have is a lot of bad potential value with almost no showdown value. TP is never good, your draws are crap and tainted and you have no FE.
As said, EASY fold with this small pot vs any semi-ok player.
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