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100NL, KK in two different situations

  
 
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pokerfan
Old 03-02-2008, 12:50 PM     Post subject: 100NL, KK in two different situations #1 (permalink)  
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hand 1: villain is 21/3.6/0.5 around 28 hands. whats the optimal play on A turn when i have position?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (7 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($101.55)
Button ($102.70)
SB ($146.75)
BB ($26.90)
UTG ($157.75)
MP1 ($115.75)
MP2 ($49)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, K.
3 folds, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, SB calls $3.50, 1 fold.

Flop: ($9) 6, 5, 3 (2 players)
SB bets $5, Hero raises to $15, SB calls $10.

Turn: ($39) A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ?

hand 2: villain is Upay4college, a 100NL/200NL regular running 11/8.5/3.6 (flop AF) over 900 hands. It looked like he was in felt mode.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

Button ($314.20)
SB ($120.60)
BB ($56.20)
UTG ($31.30)
UTG+1 ($162.85)
Hero ($117.45)
MP2 ($106.30)
MP3 ($108)
CO ($103.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with , .
UTG calls $1, 1 fold, Hero raises to $6, 2 folds, CO calls $6, 3 folds, UTG folds.

Flop: ($14.50) , , (2 players)
Hero bets $10, CO calls $10.

Turn: ($34.50) (2 players)
Hero bets $24, CO raises to $87.75, Hero ?
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wakeup
Old 03-02-2008, 10:20 PM #2 (permalink)  
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For the first one.
I think i'd be betting for value. He could have an over pair, a 4 a flush draw in his range, most without the A. he's reasonably loose too so a bet of sayy 13. He's probably scared of the A too

Second one.
Hrmm tough. He called on a dry on board and is now firing on a dud... it looks like a set to me but could also be an overpair JJ/QQ less likely. Do you have much history that he might want to get tricky n call. Say 10% bluff, 60% set, 30% overpair we beat? Really dont kno what else he'd have. thoughts?
I'd probablyfold. Additionally it probably lookedl ike there were going to be two calls with the UTG limp, a bonus for him to set mine.
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Fnord
Old 03-03-2008, 06:47 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Hand 1: He doesn't have an Ace. At first I thought check, but I think there is value letting him try to shove it back in our face with a value bet/call.

Hand 2: His pre-flop range here is tight, he's been around the block and you're out of position. I don't like your bet/bet line here. Give him a chance to bluff and get to showdown cheap.

1,232 games 0.005 secs 246,400 games/sec

Board: Ts 8h 4d 6d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.870% 53.08% 01.79% 654 22.00 { TT+, 88, 44 }
Hand 1: 45.130% 43.34% 01.79% 534 22.00 { KcKh }
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Genitruc
Old 03-03-2008, 07:49 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 i m no full ring expert but hand 2 is pretty much a 6-max hand to it looks like a pretty easy bet-fold on the turn to me unless villain is capable of high-level bluffs
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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Fnord
Old 03-03-2008, 08:33 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Genitruc
i m no full ring expert but hand 2 is pretty much a 6-max hand
His range is considerably tighter. Heck, his calling range might be even tighter than our opening range, plus he has position. This requires some serious adjustment for our approach to him. Blasting barrels into a better hand with better position doesn't seem like a winning play to me. It just so happens we have a pretty darn strong hand here which makes this interesting.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Genitruc
Old 03-03-2008, 09:14 AM #6 (permalink)  
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 hmmm I guess the natural 6-max tendancy is to overestimate the number of hands someone can be holding solely based on preflop

if I were playing the hand (oh no not projection!) and I thought villain was competent, if somewhat tight and uncreative, I'd assume his range to be all pairs up to queens (we're repping lots of strength, right!) and SC's getting a pretty decent price, especially since the limper will almost always call and we ll be in position for a 3-way pot with likely huge implied odds.

based on that assumption, I'd ascribe villain a calling range on this uber dry flop of something like T9s, JTs, JJ, QQ as well as the sets.

if we have any read at all that villain is capable of peeling without a top pair hand just to see if we shut down with AK, we can also include hands like 67, 89, 99 and - depending on just how optimistic we want to be - 77 and 55.

So against that range I don't really see how anything but bet-folding is best. Almost everything that doesn't beat us is calling the turn for a pretty big bet with around 20% equity. Where it becomes shitty is if we know that we're getting bluffraised by hands like 77, 99, T9 and 89 that picked up extra outs. In that case a cr is prob better or c/c and c/c most rivers.

maybe the perception that even tight villains have mid SC's is way off though for full ring I dunno
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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Genitruc
Old 03-03-2008, 09:16 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 oh and a big thing is that I don't see JJ or QQ raising that turn ever (protection?)
when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
 
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Fnord
Old 03-03-2008, 10:50 AM #8 (permalink)  
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What I'm getting at is this is know your player territory and we need a plan going into this hand with our entire opening range.

Does he fold to flop bets often? Once he continues past the flop how much stronger are his holdings?

What's his 3-bet game look like? Can we discount AA-QQ/AK type hands?

How well does he play position?

If he's a tight flop folder (and 3-bets JJ+/AK), then the turn isn't a value bet and we might need to give this one up for the sake of all the money he spews folding the flop too much.

If he fights back, we should be checking some good hands to him so all our checks aren't surrenders of the pot.

On a big picture level, c-bets work because you're repping a better hand and/or better position with perhaps some flop texture stuff mixed in. When a tight/aggressive opponent calls with position we have neither and it's not a position wheere we should be blasting away.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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pokerfan
Old 03-03-2008, 01:39 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Fnord, i strongly believe that we can discount AA/AK (QQ likely) given his tight calling range and 3 bet tendency in history. In my opinion, lots of regular multitablers rarely bluff in big pots and attack individual players. So we can narrow down his range to QQ/JJ and 3 sets on the turn. I'm leaning towards his set line the whole way.
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