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d0zer
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09-09-2008, 06:55 PM
Post subject: 100NL: KK
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#1 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 2,521
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Villain 18/6
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (UTG) ($123.95)
MP ($89.25)
CO ($50.20)
Button ($98.25)
SB ($94.50)
BB ($118.60)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with K , K
Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, CO calls $4, 2 folds, BB calls $3
Flop: ($12.50) 8, 8, 8 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10, 1 fold, BB calls $10
Turn: ($32.50) 10 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $20, BB calls $20
River: ($72.50) J (2 players)
BB bets $70 Hero...?
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ATOTHEC101
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Full House
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,248
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fold
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"This sure beats Super Mario Bros.!" is my ejaculation catch phrase.
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Im_new
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 1,055
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I put him on TT .... I think I can get away while kicking and screaming.... What is his AF? If its big, I fold.... if its small, I call.
not entirely sure though.
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"Gotta run well eventually."
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aka_red
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Moderator
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: house
Posts: 903
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Im_new
I put him on TT .... I think I can get away while kicking and screaming.... What is his AF? If its big, I fold.... if its small, I call.
not entirely sure though.
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that's not how this stat works.
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[11:11] <+bikes> bitches love your face
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aka_red
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Moderator
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: house
Posts: 903
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oh yeah, fold. Best case scenario he's blocking with QQ.
Board: 8h 8d 8s Td Jc
Hand 0: 50.000% 50.00% 00.00% 36 0.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 50.000% 50.00% 00.00% 36 0.00 { QQ-TT }
Even though this is even equity I still think your boned.
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[11:11] <+bikes> bitches love your face
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Deanglow
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
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0% chance I'm folding. I can't put him on a tangible range but I think I'm ahead at least 50% of the time.
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Im_new
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 1,055
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by reDZill4
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Im_new
I put him on TT .... I think I can get away while kicking and screaming.... What is his AF? If its big, I fold.... if its small, I call.
not entirely sure though.
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that's not how this stat works.
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What do you mean?
Here is my logic: if his aggro factor is high, he probably would have re-raised flop or turn IMO. In those cases, he's re-raising to push away A-x and medium pairs that aggressive players will second barrel to flush out villains medium pairs and A-x hands that floated. Especially on that turn card, a player with a high AF should 3-bet. But he doesn't, he only calls and pulls this number on the river, which will often push away a bigger boat like yours (KK-JJ). I think this player can steal this pot from you with his line. I really really love his line against another Taggy player.
So if its typical for him to call down, I call.... If he's usually more aggro post flop, but this time around he's being passive, I get suspicious and fold.
Question: does anyone else think his bet is HUGE to be going for value? Feels like a steal gone perfectly for him. idk...
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"Gotta run well eventually."
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ATOTHEC101
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Full House
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,248
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high af equals agro whilst low af equals cautious and passive, thus if he has a low af its more of a reason NOT to call rather than call.
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"This sure beats Super Mario Bros.!" is my ejaculation catch phrase.
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call against HIGH af players
nobody includes AJs in his range here?
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d0zer
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 2,521
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
nobody includes AJs in his range here?
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doesn't seem too likely that this villain will call two streets with ace high. Especially since I was the UTG PF raiser.
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Deanglow
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
call against HIGH af players
nobody includes AJs in his range here?
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I almost think this is his most likely hand
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ATOTHEC101
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Full House
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,248
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Deanglow
Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
call against HIGH af players
nobody includes AJs in his range here?
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I almost think this is his most likely hand |
How do you come to this conclusion? I feel its FAR more likely he has jj/1010 here than aj, so many fullring players specifically at 100/200nl play the aforementioned hands exactly like this respecting the utg raise with their highish pairs by just calling down but then hitting their gin card on the turn or river and waking up with a large bet/raise. Hell its even possible hes playing 87s,86s,108s etc calling purely for implied odds in position against what is often a fairly big hand belonging to the utg raiser. I know im a showdown nit in these sort of spots but id fold this against any non moron/agro vilain.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by d0zer
Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
nobody includes AJs in his range here?
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doesn't seem too likely that this villain will call two streets with ace high. Especially since I was the UTG PF raiser. |
What about 99?
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d0zer
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 2,521
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
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Originally Posted by d0zer
Quote:
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Originally Posted by iopq
nobody includes AJs in his range here?
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doesn't seem too likely that this villain will call two streets with ace high. Especially since I was the UTG PF raiser. |
What about 99? |
I thought 99-QQ was his most likely holding until the river shove which kinda eliminates 99 from this villain. I had no notes saying "villain is fucking crazy postflop"
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Squeaky_Midget1
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Straight
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 126
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Pleease tell me you called this
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pokerfan
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
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hmmm, a 18/6 guy. If his AF is really low, i could see a fold here. Otherwise, i hate my life and call.
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ATOTHEC101
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Full House
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,248
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lol that note u have changes things alot, wished ud supplied this info earlier! On this revelation I call the river bet and just chalk it down as a cooler if im beat.
edit: im an idiot and misread what you said as you having a note rather than have not  , so i stick to my original plan: folding 
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wufwugy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,660
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odds are bad and average players play a worse hand like this a small percentage of the time
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by reDZill4
oh yeah, fold. Best case scenario he's blocking with QQ.
Board: 8h 8d 8s Td Jc
Hand 0: 50.000% 50.00% 00.00% 36 0.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 50.000% 50.00% 00.00% 36 0.00 { QQ-TT }
Even though this is even equity I still think your boned.
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How does one block with a psb? Wouldn't you block with like 1/3 pot?
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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he has JJ ldo.
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3k post - Return of the blog!
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Im_new
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 1,055
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ATOTHEC101
high af equals agro whilst low af equals cautious and passive, thus if he has a low af its more of a reason NOT to call rather than call.
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Oh OH O.... I just started using an HUD, and I missed interpreted the stat.  I thought AF gauged how AGGRO the player was ONLY. I used the stat as: "on a scale from 1-6, 1 being slightly aggressive and 6 being maniac," how aggro is he? Rather than the correct way to think of it, "on a scale from 1-6, 1 being passive, 3 being average, 6 being very aggressive, how aggro is he?"
See what I mean?
Thanks for the correction 
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"Gotta run well eventually."
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d0zer
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 2,521
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by badgers
he has JJ ldo.
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Yes he did.
*gives badgers a reward cookie*
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