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100nl Going for river c/r, FPS?

  
 
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dev
Old 09-05-2010, 02:01 AM     Post subject: 100nl Going for river c/r, FPS? #1 (permalink)  
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V is 18/16 who hasn't done anything exciting.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($206.25)
BB ($31.55)
UTG ($189.80)
UTG+1 ($104.35)
MP1 ($213.95)
MP2 ($100)
CO ($34.40)
Button ($146.35)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5, 5
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $2, 4 folds, Hero calls $1.50, BB calls $1

Flop: ($6) J, 5, 10 (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks

Turn: ($6) 4 (3 players)
Hero bets $5, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $5

River: ($16) J (2 players)
Hero checks

I figure he will bet a jack and missed draws. I only lose value from an oddly-played T or overpair. I gain value from the missed draws that bluff and maybe an extra bet from a J.
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bikes
Old 09-05-2010, 02:51 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 c/r here seems so std. esp if he hasnt done anything exciting and wont raise a faux blocking bet as a bluff.
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ZwiFT
Old 09-05-2010, 01:06 PM #3 (permalink)  
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looks way better to bet out then a c/r here. You want to control the bet size here, and get max value instead of him valuebetting small / folding to a rr, or simply just check it down. Its just to easy of a fold for him with anything he holds.
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Old 09-05-2010, 09:52 PM #4 (permalink)  
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aka_red
Old 09-07-2010, 07:40 PM #5 (permalink)  
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depends on if there is more value from worse or more value from bluff catching. as hes never got a jack. your hand is clearly too strong to bluff catch. i think its clearly a bet. if you choose to bluff catch you obviously still c/r for value.
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Old 09-07-2010, 10:24 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 at stakes where this guy never has a hand, weighted towards AK, AQ mebbe once in a blue moon KQ and he's not good enough to raise a blocking bet i would almost always c/r

if he was good enough to raise a blocking bet i'd bet like $6, and i hate that term but i find i only use it when describing faux blocking bets.

so i think he's almost never calling a river bet so that leaves induce with a 'thin looking' vb or c/r
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nutsinho
Old 09-08-2010, 10:49 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 what do you mean "good enough to raise a blocking bet"? This is the definition of a spot where villain should never raise any hand he got here with when facing a river bet. The only type a small bet would be good against is nonthinking spastic retards who try to win every pot
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Deanglow
Old 09-12-2010, 06:01 AM #8 (permalink)  
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 I bet this about 100% of the time
 
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Da GOAT
Old 09-15-2010, 10:48 AM #9 (permalink)  
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gotta bet this, why would we think he would ever bet when checked too? he doesnt have a hand that can go for value plus i wouldnt count on him having many bluff hands. all u can hope for is he has some marginal hand.
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