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pokerfan
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09-09-2009, 08:03 PM
Post subject: 100NL, flush + pair draw dilemma
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
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mp1 is a regular running 14/9/2.5. Cbet% is 80% and ATS% is 20%. Mp2 is a donk like 44/12/1.2 over 120 hands. Was i priced in on the turn given two villian's actions? Is c/r good in this spot?
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
CO ($164.85)
Button ($146.75)
SB ($100)
Hero (BB) ($189.35)
UTG ($142.15)
UTG+1 ($102.15)
MP1 ($232.90)
MP2 ($69.65)
MP3 ($140.30)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 7 , 5
2 folds, MP1 bets $3, MP2 calls $3, 4 folds, Hero calls $2
Flop: ($9.50) 7 , 9, 3 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $7, MP2 calls $7, Hero raises $26, MP1 calls $19, MP2 calls $19
Turn: ($87.50) J (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $51, MP2 calls $40.65 (All-In), Hero ?
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jessyj
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 90
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I'd ship turn myself. eff their couches. As played use stove and do some math. I'd never fold in the heat of the moment.
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pokerfan
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jessyj
I'd ship turn myself. eff their couches. As played use stove and do some math. I'd never fold in the heat of the moment.
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we ship on the turn 90BB deep??
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bikes
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a hot damn mess
Administrator
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 2,460
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c/f as played.
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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It's easy to say this afterward, but I think I still lead this flop a lot... I c/r and ship turn all the time 100bb deep, but given the stacks I think lead/3b, or bet, bet, ? is a much better option. For reasons that I think are pretty obvious here.
As played: With two callers there's a good chance your draw is dominated and the 2pr/trips outs aren't live, so it's a pretty straight foreward c/f on the turn imo.
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jessyj
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 90
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Didn't notice stack sizes. I think that changes my plan a bit  .
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Bluediamond77
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Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 2
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wow you got owned
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Deanglow
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
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I really dont like the preflop call or flop craise that much. Preflop is a good squeeze spot and flop I prefer leading but checkcalling is not terrible (nor is checkraising)
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,837
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The question is why are you calling preflop? I personally don't mind the call but you basically flopped about as good as you ever will sans the nut straight flush. Bet/3bet shove the flop. If your not looking to hit combo draws and use them to be aggressive then how will you play sets here. If called on the flop I fire one turn then shut down if need be. You have a ton of equity vs his range, even a set.
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Azazel
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Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 48
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i fold pre, b/3b flop, c/f turn.
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pokerfan
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Deanglow
I really dont like the preflop call or flop craise that much. Preflop is a good squeeze spot and flop I prefer leading but checkcalling is not terrible (nor is checkraising)
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i agree its a squeeze spot. I dont know if i really get my money in good vs a FR regular this deep if we bet/3 bet/4 bet shove the flop.
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tugger
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Worcestershire, England
Posts: 221
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It's clear you're still drawing, the 7 isn't winning. So, assuming no-one else is holding our outs, we have 9 clubs, three 5's, and two 7's left to help us, that's 14 outs from 47 cards, giving us a 1 in 3.5 shot.
Our pot odds are 138.50/51, around 1:2.8. Implied odds might make up the difference, assuming you're getting called if the club falls.
However, it looks to me like our short stack is drawing, and he can't be pushed off the hand because he's all in. I'd suspect him of holding two clubs, and perhaps an open ender, or maybe even 8T, and muck pretty sharpish.
I imagine MP1 has JJ+
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jessyj
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 90
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by tugger
It's clear you're still drawing, the 7 isn't winning. So, assuming no-one else is holding our outs, we have 9 clubs, three 5's, and two 7's left to help us, that's 14 outs from 47 cards, giving us a 1 in 3.5 shot.
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Our clubs aren't always good here either which detracts from the IO.
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tugger
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Worcestershire, England
Posts: 221
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jessyj
Quote:
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Originally Posted by tugger
It's clear you're still drawing, the 7 isn't winning. So, assuming no-one else is holding our outs, we have 9 clubs, three 5's, and two 7's left to help us, that's 14 outs from 47 cards, giving us a 1 in 3.5 shot.
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Our clubs aren't always good here either which detracts from the IO. |
That's reason #1 why I fold. It looks to me like the short has a monster draw, either T8 clubs or QT clubs maybe. Perhaps not, but it doesn't look to me like our clubs are good.
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