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100NL, Cry call or fold in these awkward spots ??

  
 
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pokerfan
Old 08-20-2008, 09:50 PM     Post subject: 100NL, Cry call or fold in these awkward spots ?? #1 (permalink)  
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hand 1: villain is a loose passive donk running 42/12/0.8 over 140 hands. Do you guys think i was pot-stuck ?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($188.50)
Hero ($111)
CO ($118.05)
Button ($14.20)
SB ($61.40)
BB ($61.70)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q, Q.
UTG raises to $3, Hero raises to $14, 4 folds, UTG calls $11.

Flop: ($29.50) Q, T, K (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $23, UTG calls $23.

Turn: ($75.50) A (2 players)
UTG bets $151.5 (All-In), Hero ?

hand 2: opponent is a heavy multitabling TA regular running 12/9/3.3 over 3000 hands. Seriously, i've never seen this guy play this way before and had no history in 3 bet or 4 bet situations. Did he really trap me into calling his 150BB deep shove?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($17.50)
BB ($95.60)
UTG ($97.90)
UTG+1 ($142.05)
MP1 ($106.75)
Hero ($154.50)
CO ($44.40)
Button ($31.35)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K, K.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero raises to $14, 4 folds, UTG+1 raises to $142.05, Hero ?

hand 3: villain is 14/11/2 over 130 hands. it looked like he 3 bet a lot. Is this a EV+ move in these BVB situations.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP1 ($101.85)
MP2 ($65)
CO ($98.50)
Hero ($98.90)
SB ($134.50)
BB ($44.25)
UTG ($134.10)
UTG+1 ($115.70)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, K.
4 folds, CO raises to $3, Hero raises to $14, 2 folds, CO raises to $27, Hero raises to $98.9
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gametight
Old 08-20-2008, 10:39 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Hand 1 call

hand 2 you might be able to find a fold when its all early action like this, against a 12/9... although it has a lot to do with your image at the time as well.

hand 3 is well played imo.
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Old 08-20-2008, 10:44 PM #3 (permalink)  
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CALL

SNAP CALL

FOLD
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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bigspenda73
Old 08-20-2008, 10:46 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Fnord
FOLD
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_KIzbktgJk

full version: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekQ_Ja02gTY
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pokerfan
Old 08-20-2008, 11:14 PM #5 (permalink)  
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my image in hand 2 was solid TA and didnt do anything out of line. By the way, its my first 3 bet against his ep raise.
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badgers
Old 08-20-2008, 11:35 PM #6 (permalink)  
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hand 1 is a call

hand 2 - What is your 3betting range in this situation? My immediate thoughts here are he is likely to think you are not going to be 3betting wide here at all and therefore it makes 0 sense to shove anything but AA (which makes 0.1 sense.) It depends a lot on your image/stats.

3 - Depends on image again. If you haven't been pounding on him just calling is fine, depends on what you percieve your FE to be like and that's kind of impossible to comment on. Personally I'd be fistpumping this every time because it's the nuts compared to most of my 3betting range in this spot. Also I think your 3bet size is overkill, you have position and you make it nearly 5x his raise??
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Fnord
Old 08-21-2008, 12:01 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Yeah, 3 is very much an "it depends" spot for me. Given the information we have I lay it down.

Flatting is fine if we don't give up unimproved too often.
Shoving is at worst a moderate error.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
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pokerfan
Old 08-21-2008, 01:16 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by badgers
hand 2 - What is your 3betting range in this situation? My immediate thoughts here are he is likely to think you are not going to be 3betting wide here at all and therefore it makes 0 sense to shove anything but AA (which makes 0.1 sense.) It depends a lot on your image/stats.
the guy who made such an unusual move was Upayforcollege, a solid 100NL regular. I didnt really 3 bet wide in this situation and my image was a standard TA running like 12/8/2 or something close.
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Fnord
Old 08-21-2008, 01:20 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Type in chat "This should cover your Calculus textbook" and call.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
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badgers
Old 08-21-2008, 01:24 AM #10 (permalink)  
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hmmm he always seemed decent, i dunno why he'd shove AA instead of 4betting or flatting but there's no way he's shoving anything else here particularly if you run 12/8. I think this is a fold, if it is a call it is really, really marginal.
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Miffed22001
Old 08-21-2008, 02:14 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by badgers
hmmm he always seemed decent, i dunno why he'd shove AA instead of 4betting or flatting but there's no way he's shoving anything else here particularly if you run 12/8. I think this is a fold, if it is a call it is really, really marginal.
if he isnt prepared to put 150bbs in the middle preflop with KK he shouldnt 3bet In my opinion.
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bigspenda73
Old 08-21-2008, 02:17 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
Quote:
Originally Posted by badgers
hmmm he always seemed decent, i dunno why he'd shove AA instead of 4betting or flatting but there's no way he's shoving anything else here particularly if you run 12/8. I think this is a fold, if it is a call it is really, really marginal.
if he isnt prepared to put 150bbs in the middle preflop with KK he shouldnt 3bet In my opinion.
I never got this line of thinking, could you expand upon it a bit.
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Miffed22001
Old 08-21-2008, 02:23 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
Quote:
Originally Posted by badgers
hmmm he always seemed decent, i dunno why he'd shove AA instead of 4betting or flatting but there's no way he's shoving anything else here particularly if you run 12/8. I think this is a fold, if it is a call it is really, really marginal.
if he isnt prepared to put 150bbs in the middle preflop with KK he shouldnt 3bet In my opinion.
I never got this line of thinking, could you expand upon it a bit.
theres lots more that i cant articulate fully, other than if we want to fold KK preflop then we shouldnt be 3 betting pre period.
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bigspenda73
Old 08-21-2008, 02:49 AM #14 (permalink)  
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 I'll try to say this as nice as possible due to our past. You''re still going to have to explain it, saying it twice instead of once doesn't make it true or make me a believer that it's correct.
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gametight
Old 08-21-2008, 03:01 AM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
Quote:
Originally Posted by badgers
hmmm he always seemed decent, i dunno why he'd shove AA instead of 4betting or flatting but there's no way he's shoving anything else here particularly if you run 12/8. I think this is a fold, if it is a call it is really, really marginal.
if he isnt prepared to put 150bbs in the middle preflop with KK he shouldnt 3bet In my opinion.
I never got this line of thinking, could you expand upon it a bit.
theres lots more that i cant articulate fully, other than if we want to fold KK preflop then we shouldnt be 3 betting pre period.
This is not always true.... You can three bet a hand for value that is way above their raising range but end up folding it because its behind their 4bet shoving range. Just because you are going to fold to a 4bet shove from the very top of a players range does not mean he will not call you with less than the very top of his range.
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badgers
Old 08-21-2008, 09:22 AM #16 (permalink)  
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I usually agree with miffed and I'll try and explain why.

I think the whole idea of not 3bet/folding good hands is the concept of not turning your hand into a bluff. Once you threebet with this hand, you are committed to an extent. If 3betting is going to force out all worse for instance, then it is often a terrible idea to threebet such as hands such as QQ against an nits UTG raise for example. If you do 3bet it's because you decide that you're ahead of his stacking off range, since we don't expect him to be calling OOP much we'd essentially have turned QQ into a bluff here if we 3bet folded 100BB deep.

In this example though, I think he is going to be calling our threebet with almost his entire opening range - He will probably fold AQ and maybe AK, but that's about it. The question is really do we want him to be setmining in this way against us so deep. I guess we're never really going to win a big pot unimproved here since most 12/8s are going to have a 3betting range of KK+ here, maybe AKs or QQ. Perhaps it is more profitable to call and play poker postflop, especially if we don't intend on stacking off here preflop.
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aka_red
Old 08-21-2008, 09:44 AM #17 (permalink)  
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i agree with gametight here. you are easily ahead of his 3b calling range but can be destroyed by his 4b shoving range.

i believe the 3b for value but not calling a shove is very flawed logic.
it is assuming that his 3b call range = 4b shove range.

speculative 3b calling range for 12/9/3 (TT-QQ,AKo) 21% v KK.
speculative 4b shoving range for 12/9/3 (KK+,AKs) 67% v KK.
you can manipulate these ranges as you wish but i think for the most part you will see a similar result.

ftr.
fold
fold
fine
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Miffed22001
Old 08-21-2008, 09:54 AM #18 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by reDZill4
i agree with gametight here. you are easily ahead of his 3b calling range but can be destroyed by his 4b shoving range.

i believe the 3b for value but not calling a shove is very flawed logic.
it is assuming that his 3b call range = 4b shove range.

speculative 3b calling range for 12/9/3 (TT-QQ,AKo) 21% v KK.
speculative 4b shoving range for 12/9/3 (KK+,AKs) 67% v KK.
you can manipulate these ranges as you wish but i think for the most part you will see a similar result.

ftr.
fold
fold
fine
so we are saying his 4 bet stack of rangs is exactly AA/KK and calling is bad. Or else that because we have 150bbs behind, this effects our opponents stack off range to something that we cant call stacks off for KK.
This is a mighty large assumption, one im not happy with
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pokerfan
Old 08-21-2008, 12:31 PM #19 (permalink)  
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in hand 2, i suspect villain wanted to give the impression that he 4 bet /shoved with a wide range from UTG1.Unless he misclicked big time, i aggree with everything you guys said above.
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Ltrain
Old 08-21-2008, 03:20 PM #20 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerfan
Quote:
Originally Posted by badgers
hand 2 - What is your 3betting range in this situation? My immediate thoughts here are he is likely to think you are not going to be 3betting wide here at all and therefore it makes 0 sense to shove anything but AA (which makes 0.1 sense.) It depends a lot on your image/stats.
the guy who made such an unusual move was Upayforcollege, a solid 100NL regular. I didnt really 3 bet wide in this situation and my image was a standard TA running like 12/8/2 or something close.
**Upayforcollege** has 4bet shoved 100bb's deep on me with A,Ko before. I think you have to call.
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Old 08-21-2008, 03:30 PM #21 (permalink)  
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 how is 1 a call?
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pgil
Old 08-21-2008, 03:34 PM #22 (permalink)  
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stack size + villain = call
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Old 08-21-2008, 04:36 PM #23 (permalink)  
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id fold hand 1, 3 bet hand 2 but probably fold once he 4 bet pushes, though i would consider a flat preflop. hand 3 id play the same, think its fold or push imo, and neither is bad in this instance.
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Old 08-21-2008, 04:36 PM #24 (permalink)  
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id fold hand 1, 3 bet hand 2 but probably fold once he 4 bet pushes, though i would consider a flat preflop. hand 3 id play the same, think its fold or push imo, and neither is bad in this instance.
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Old 08-21-2008, 04:59 PM #25 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ATOTHEC101
id fold hand 1, 3 bet hand 2 but probably fold once he 4 bet pushes, though i would consider a flat preflop. hand 3 id play the same, think its fold or push imo, and neither is bad in this instance.
It was very very tough for me in hand 1. The guy was so passive that i would only beat bluff in the heat of the moment. I guess its a close decision whether we should call or fold without correct odds for pairing the board.
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Old 08-21-2008, 05:48 PM #26 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by badgers
hmmm he always seemed decent, i dunno why he'd shove AA instead of 4betting or flatting but there's no way he's shoving anything else here particularly if you run 12/8. I think this is a fold, if it is a call it is really, really marginal.
This is the new hip thing to do lately. I'm surprised though this many people have said its a fold for KK, because if it is then we could make a sick adjustment.


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Old 08-21-2008, 06:23 PM #27 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pgil
stack size + villain = call
it isn't as if we are getting superb odds, its 2:1

also the fact that he's a passive donk argues for a fold more than for a call
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gametight
Old 08-21-2008, 07:54 PM #28 (permalink)  
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Hand 1 I think he shows up with TT, AK, or other lame two pair to make this OK in the longrun. IMO.

If hes got JJ, just suckout If hes got KK, or AA, COOLER!

I guess I could be off here though.
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Old 08-22-2008, 09:02 AM #29 (permalink)  
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Fold
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Old 08-22-2008, 12:20 PM #30 (permalink)  
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 if u got it in good in hand 1, i will pee on a casino and post pictures.
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pgil
Old 08-22-2008, 03:07 PM #31 (permalink)  
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I was thinking something along the same lines as gametight for hand 1. He will have a worse non-straight hand than you that is pushing because he is afraid of the draw that already got there more than enough to make up for the lack of odds to fill up those times he has the straight.

I just can't see myself folding a set vs a 42/12 player in a 3bet pot with only a PSB to go.

when you are behind to the straight, you are still 25% to win. When you are ahead of the 2pr/lower set hands, you are 90% to win, you only need 33% to break even, so he doesn't have to have the worse hand that often for you to be even here. Plus, since it seems to have been established that he is a donk, it seems more likely for him to be putting money in bad than if he were a better player.
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Old 08-22-2008, 03:29 PM #32 (permalink)  
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This guy is 42/12.... Id like to see some fold to three bet numbers and maybee some showdown numbers but he obviously doesnt have the best "grasp" on the whole concept of poker.

I think you higher stakes guys might be giving a little too much credit. I see guys show up with some pretty wierd shit in this spot sometimes at 100nl.

Obviously against any capable player, this turn is a clear fold.
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Old 08-22-2008, 04:29 PM #33 (permalink)  
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my fellow 100NL/200NL FTRers Analysis from higher stakes guys is abosolutely correct. The loose passive donk in hand 1 showed me nasty KJ.
Anyways, i should've saved lots lots of money in these fucking situations and improved my all-time winning rate if i stopped paying off like a cash machine.
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gametight
Old 08-22-2008, 05:09 PM #34 (permalink)  
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well obv you wouldnt have posted it if you won...

but just the fact that he showed up with KJ here is a reason to make this call..... Hes probly making the same play with KQ or some other junk two pair. This is just too big a fold against a donk for me, especially with such shallow stacks compared to the pot.

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Old 08-22-2008, 05:17 PM #35 (permalink)  
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1. CALL

2. WTF??? SNAP CALL! IF you aren't snap calling, why are you playing poker? There is only 1 hand that crushes us!

3. dependent.... either call or shove over on flop


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Old 08-22-2008, 07:01 PM #36 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gametight
well obv you wouldnt have posted it if you won...

but just the fact that he showed up with KJ here is a reason to make this call..... Hes probly making the same play with KQ or some other junk two pair. This is just too big a fold against a donk for me, especially with such shallow stacks compared to the pot.

PS. Im a station
i had the same thought process in the heat of the moment as you After reviewing the hand carefully, i think folding our 4th nuts to a pot size turn shove should be definitely +EV in the long run considering that a player with an AF of 0.8 rarely shoved bluff into PFR on dangerous boards like KQJT or QTKA in 3 bet pots.
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Old 08-23-2008, 02:01 AM #37 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Im_new
2. WTF??? SNAP CALL! IF you aren't snap calling, why are you playing poker? There is only 1 hand that crushes us!


In my experience once they get to 150BB+ the regs at 100NL start getting VERY tight about stacking off preflop. like KK+ tight. And since we've got the KK, he's probably got...
I could be wrong.
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Old 08-23-2008, 03:08 AM #38 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by pokerfan
Quote:
Originally Posted by gametight
well obv you wouldnt have posted it if you won...

but just the fact that he showed up with KJ here is a reason to make this call..... Hes probly making the same play with KQ or some other junk two pair. This is just too big a fold against a donk for me, especially with such shallow stacks compared to the pot.

PS. Im a station
i had the same thought process in the heat of the moment as you After reviewing the hand carefully, i think folding our 4th nuts to a pot size turn shove should be definitely +EV in the long run considering that a player with an AF of 0.8 rarely shoved bluff into PFR on dangerous boards like KQJT or QTKA in 3 bet pots.
i don't know that I give too much creedence to af after 140 hands. I wouldn't expect him to be bluffing here, but rather shoving because he got scared after attempting to slowplay his 2 pr/set, or after hitting his second pair on the turn. not all the time mind, just enough to make it a fairly easy call.
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