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Micro2Macro
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04-10-2010, 07:33 AM
Post subject: 100nl - cool story bro
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#1 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: http://three-pair.com/
Posts: 4,465
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this guy is 25/17 over 130 hands so far. he hasn't really been that aggressive.
bet flop %: 35% (7/20)
turn bet % 18% (2/11)
river bet % 13% (1/8)
I know this is a small sample but haven't really seen anyone include the above stats like this before when posting so I thought it might be cool to include them for the sake of discussion. I do believe that having something like 1,000 hands or more would be ideal for looking at this but that's all I have to work with. I think what I have so far will give a general indication of this players style (i.e. likely an inbalance in leading range, more likely to c/c medium strength hands (and draws?) as opposed to taking the initiative).
I'm predicting the general consensus among you will be to call. Tbh I feel like folding the turn *vs this particular player*. Call me results oriented but I swear this is a set like 80% of the time. If only I had millions of hands to filter out the exact spot to go about proving it. I mean seriously, at SSFR EVERYONE leads sets and barely anyone leads top pair because if they c/c they can pick off your cbet (I'm assuming that is their logic, not that I entirely agree..)
meh I've rambled on a bit what do you guys think? turn sizing is also interesting cuz im pretty sure most SSFR players are going to make their bet sizes smaller with weaker hands vs unknowns in this spot, again adding to severe lack of balance etc...
if this hh is retarded we can just talk about something else, like balance perhaps. Or tits.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($244.95)
BB ($110.45)
UTG ($120.15)
UTG+1 ($75.65)
MP1 ($100)
MP2 ($100)
Hero (MP3) ($100)
CO ($136.30)
Button ($103)
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K , K
4 folds, Hero bets $3, 2 folds, SB calls $2.50, BB calls $2
Flop: ($9) 6 , 9 , Q (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $6, Hero calls $6, 1 fold
Turn: ($21) 2 (2 players)
BB bets $15, Hero.
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"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."
Check out my blog here!
"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"
http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
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caddie444
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: constantly UTG
Posts: 723
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Meh I personally just call down unless like he monkey shoves river and note him up. The fact that he fires turn again may mean he's trying to price out your flush draw since the 2 doesn't help your range at all and he may think you raise overpairs on the flop.
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Don't complain; Just work harder - Randy Pausch (The Last Lecture)
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Micro2Macro
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: http://three-pair.com/
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Yeah my plan was to call and shove the Kc river , and fold to further action.
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"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."
Check out my blog here!
"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"
http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
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mrhappy333
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Hartford, CT
Posts: 1,078
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Why wouldn't you raise the Flop?
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3 3 3 I'm only half evil.
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FlyingSaucy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Watching the kids
Posts: 1,603
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The reasons I can think of to raise flop are for value and fd
protection. Probably not folding a strong Q, however thrs not a huge part of his range so you risk folding out his worse hands. I lean toward small raise but could see calling the flop as the best strat then raising on a later street if nothing hits in his range.
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pokerfan
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
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I don't mind being a total passive station here
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rpm
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: maaaaaaaaaaate
Posts: 2,049
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doesnt donking the flop and leading the turn appear ridiculously strong to anyone else? i cant see him having AQ or a flush draw.
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caddie444
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: constantly UTG
Posts: 723
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rpm
doesnt donking the flop and leading the turn appear ridiculously strong to anyone else? i cant see him having AQ or a flush draw.
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I've seen play Q8 like this
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Don't complain; Just work harder - Randy Pausch (The Last Lecture)
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caddie444
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: constantly UTG
Posts: 723
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Quote:
Originally Posted by caddie444
I've seen play Q8 like this
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wow its late
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Don't complain; Just work harder - Randy Pausch (The Last Lecture)
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Poker Guru
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Two Pair
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 37
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Just call the turn and reevaluate the river. But usually I just call river too.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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id call turn. i fold to a big bet on the river.
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Deanglow
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
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Call turn and don't fold on good rivers
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daven
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
Posts: 5,813
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call.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Micro2Macro
if this hh is retarded we can just talk about something else, like balance perhaps. Or tits.
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with respect to tits, i like balance. And playing a wide range when appropriate (i.e. when i'm single)
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Deanglow
Call turn and don't fold on good rivers
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3k post - Return of the blog!
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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I would call and call on any river, even flush completing or jt completing rivers. I guess I'd fold on the 8 of diamonds.
I would also raise the flop for sure. He has a decent queen a lot. He's not a tag, so u can't give him a sets/draw type range, and besides, there are only 2 sets he can have from preflop.
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paratrooper99
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Straight
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 135
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does anyone think that an open of 4 bb standard would help this situation. Its only a dollar but with the sb out there, it makes things a little more pricey over time. Then the donk lead would need to be much larger. Maybe it is all relative but I dont like the 3xbb lead. What do you think
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rpm
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: maaaaaaaaaaate
Posts: 2,049
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i am guessing m2m made it 3bb because he is going to be stealing with a very wide range of hands in the CO, so 3bb is a lower price to pay than 4 when he encounters resistance. if he changed his betsizing to 4bb only when he had a strong hand, players would notice. if he made his uniform size 4bb, he's more vulnerable because his range is weak. thats one reason not to make it 4bb, m2m's might be entirely different.
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phil8493
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BANNED
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 18
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I think raising the flop would help considerably. There are so many draws I'd like to tax more. What about raising turn to get some information + tax the draws -- I guess the logic against is his low turn bet %. In any event, I'd be staying w/ the hand unless 8d or Ad comes or something else weird happens.
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Micro2Macro
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: http://three-pair.com/
Posts: 4,465
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open raise sizing preflop is a style thing, there's going to be pro's and con's to raising bigger or smaller and it will just depend on your range and the type of games you are in.
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"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."
Check out my blog here!
"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"
http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
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