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100NL - call or fold to a big river bet with a baby flush?

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Keilah

04-17-2008, 08:45 PM Post subject: 100NL - call or fold to a big river bet with a baby flush?

#1 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Apr 2006

Location: Northern BC, Canada

Posts: 658

My bets don't look like a flush, which makes me want to call, and he also doesn't look like a flush (honestly I have a hard time figuring out what he DOES have), which makes me want to call, but the raise is huuuuge, which made me tank until i autofolded =/

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($120.15)
UTG ($100)
UTG+1 ($161.20)
MP1 ($46.15)
MP2 ($100)
MP3 ($100)
Hero ($105.65)
Button ($49.90)
SB ($51.90)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 5

, 6

.
2 folds, MP1 calls $1, 2 folds, Hero calls $1, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($4) 7

, T

, 4

(4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $2.3, SB folds, BB calls $2.30, MP1 folds.

Turn: ($8.60) 9

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5, BB calls $5.

River: ($18.60) Q

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10, BB raises to $111.85, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $38.60

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d0zer

04-17-2008, 08:52 PM

#2 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jul 2007

Posts: 2,524

Weird hand.

I'd probably opt to raise this preflop instead of limping behind only 1 limper.

As played, his line looks more like a slowplayed set/straight than it does a flush, but I have a hard time calling that river with the price he's giving. I probably tank, then time-out being unable to make a decision.

I dunno. If we've got a good read of 'huge aggro donk', then maybe the river's a snap call.

Weird hand.

DaHorror

04-17-2008, 09:49 PM

#3 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jun 2005

Posts: 616

I think that both of you having flushed on the river, while not impossible, is just so unlikely that I can't see getting away from this hand.

In general I agree raising is better than limping preflop, I'd bet 2/3 - 3/4 on the flop, take the free turn card (particularly since the 9 taints your straight outs and I don't want to get reraised off my hand) and reraise any river lead by villain or lead the river for closer to pot or maybe even overbet the pot.

The more I l0ok at this the more I think you got bluffed out on the end.

Keilah

04-17-2008, 09:57 PM

#4 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Apr 2006

Location: Northern BC, Canada

Posts: 658

No strong reads on villain as I'd only recently sat down, but he didn't seem overly tight/loose.

I also think I got bluffed out, but at that price, I wasn't sure if I should find out. He'd have to be bluffing/overvaluing his hand something like 40% of the time to make this a good call... and that just may be the case. Idunno.

AlexMorris

04-18-2008, 07:10 AM

#5 (permalink)

Join Date: Aug 2007

Location: Charlotte, NC

Posts: 73

Nothing wrong with folding, here. It is amazing how often people will make that play with the nut flush, hoping a straight or weak flush will call. It is extremely rare for people to make that kind of bet on a bluff.

jimmy44

04-18-2008, 03:47 PM

#6 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jul 2006

Location: Place where I can spew

Posts: 1,391

Villain thinkg you don't have the flush.
Either he has the nut flush or he his bluffing with a worse hand. You're hving something like 1.3 to 1 on the pot so if you think he will bluff more then 44% then you should call.
I personnaly think that he his bluffing more then 50% here. Plus the probability of him having a flush is really small.

Erpel

04-18-2008, 04:31 PM

#7 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Mar 2008

Posts: 605

(beginner)
Some stats or read on the fellow might have been beneficial.

I can't find a fold here. He's in BB and he's checking PF and check/calling the flop, which isn't indicating a whole lot of strength - and then goes on suggesting he has something worth check/calling with. I think he has a 'not nothing' weak made hand or straight draw hand. 44, 77, TT, 65, 98, 74, T7, T4, 4x, 7x, Tx, J8, 86 are all possible to me.

Your betting line is just barely above half pot and every bet you make makes me think that you're just trying to take down an orphan without a hand. I don't think the bet sizing shows enough strength that he gives you credit for a hand that can beat his two pair or whatever. He could have played a QT, Q7, Q4 and J8 exactly this way with no problem at all and no real bluffing involved. If we start to include trips, lower two pair and more bluffy propositions due to the weak bet sizing I think we're ahead here.

The hand combinations that beat you are so few that I can't really put give him credit for them. There are 28 2-club hand combinations of which some (like AcKc) he'd likely have played more aggressively pre-flop and others (8c2c etc) he'd have folded on the flop.

Edit note: Pot odds are 1.44 to 1 to call ((87.25+38.6)/87.25) requiring about 41% equity. Lots of hands on my list above are questionable, but if there are 12 2-club hand combinations he could have played this way you would need only 9 other (bluff or no-bluff) hand combinations possible to justify a call. TT, 77 and 44 alone are 9 combinations. (With this example you would have 43% equity and your equity is likely to be much higher imo)

Miffed22001

04-18-2008, 09:15 PM

#8 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jun 2005

Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!

Posts: 8,181

insta-call for me, runner runner flush over flush? Meh ok i pay that 100bbs deep
What conceivable hand does opp call on flop that is a draw that has clubs in it also? 89c would have been an option but the turn rules that out, therefore he has to have some odd straight/set or bluff IMO and we have to call.
if someone coughs up a hand then ok id look at a fold otherwise i cant.
my only problem of course that if opp is bluffing, its a good bluff for 100nl, and 100nl players generally dont make 'good' bluffs, they just spew

Fnord

04-18-2008, 09:57 PM

#9 (permalink)

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Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

insta-call for me, runner runner flush over flush? Meh ok i pay that 100bbs deep

/agree

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

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100NL - call or fold to a big river bet with a baby flush?

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