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100NL, Bluffing in 3 bet pot vs a regular

  
 
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pokerfan
Old 06-16-2009, 04:19 AM     Post subject: 100NL, Bluffing in 3 bet pot vs a regular #1 (permalink)  
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villain is a bad regular running 18/13/2.6. His steal% is 42% and fold to 3 bet % is 66%. I didnt really bluff him in a 3 bet pot before and my image was clean & tight. His range includes some small-medium pairs, ATs+,KQs, AQo+ and JJ-QQ after peeling the flop. AA or KK i think is unlikely given his actions. Any thoughts on my bet sizing(a little bit overshove)? I think QQ or AJ would be hard-pressed to call this shove.
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($128.50)
Button ($141.10)
Hero (SB) ($100)
BB ($103.20)
UTG ($100)
UTG+1 ($105)
MP1 ($51)
MP2 ($115.95)
MP3 ($106.40)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, 8
3 folds, MP2 bets $4, 3 folds, Hero raises $13, 1 fold, MP2 calls $9

Flop: ($27) 2, 2, 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $17, MP2 calls $17

Turn: ($61) J (2 players)
Hero bets $70.50 (All-In)
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Deanglow
Old 06-16-2009, 05:54 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 i try not to bluff loose calling stations with no equity
 
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bikes
Old 06-16-2009, 06:14 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 Can't possibly imagine what hes going to fold on the turn that he floated the flop cause everyone wants to put you on AK.
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Old 06-16-2009, 06:21 AM #4 (permalink)  
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well he might fold 99
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oskar
Old 06-16-2009, 08:33 AM #5 (permalink)  
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oskar has a spectacular aura aboutoskar has a spectacular aura aboutoskar has a spectacular aura about
 Do you expect him to fold 60% of his mp2 opening range to your barely more than PS raise in position? And if you do, then what range do you think he has on the flop / turn
You obv. need to c-bet flop as played, but I'd just give up on the turn. Too many pairs in his range imo.
And you're not repping much. Unless he knows that you will make bluffy looking value lines against him, which I think is too much to ask from someone at this level.
I wouldn't expect too much floating in 3b pots without history.

If I'm the villain here I'd have a hard time folding 66.

I don't really like any 2-barreling option here.
45/fold seems bad... 55/call seems bad...
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Old 06-16-2009, 11:25 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by oskar
Do you expect him to fold 60% of his mp2 opening range to your barely more than PS raise in position? And if you do, then what range do you think he has on the flop / turn
You obv. need to c-bet flop as played
no, he obviously folds to a lot 3bs and his flop range is strong so he's not folding any two overcards or an overpair... so he's never folding to this cbet unless he has 98s-QJs
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pokerfan
Old 06-16-2009, 01:49 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bbickes
Can't possibly imagine what hes going to fold on the turn that he floated the flop cause everyone wants to put you on AK.
why only AK? i often do this with QQ+ or improved AK or AJ. Believe me, 18/13 will peel the flop with lots of weird stuff especially when ppl c-bet less. AK is certainly in his float range.
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