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kmind
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01-10-2009, 08:23 AM
Post subject: 100NL Bluff {Azns ITT}
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Not Giving In
Posts: 4,240
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Ok so villain in this hand seems to be a reg at 100NL based on his FullTilt icon thingy and his stats in a very small sample size. He's running at 19/17 over only 185 hands. His cbet% is 84. He snapped checked both flop and turn and called after tanking maybe 5 seconds. My only concern is that for one, no 3rd club hit, and for two, sometimes I think people think overbets are bluffs? It's basically pot sized though. And btw I never play FR if that means shit.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
CO ($60.25)
Hero (Button) ($100)
SB ($63.70)
BB ($135.70)
UTG ($39.25)
UTG+1 ($112.65)
MP1 ($171.05)
MP2 ($89.95)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 8 , 6
2 folds, MP1 raises to $3.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $3.50, 2 folds
Flop: ($8.50) A , 5, 10 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $6, MP1 calls $6
Turn: ($20.50) 4 (2 players)
MP1 bets $5, Hero raises to $21.50, MP1 calls $16.50
River: ($63.50) 4 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $69 (All-In)
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Im_new
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 1,055
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This looks like a trap, especially with his baby sized turn bet. I put him on TT, 55, JJ-KK. I really feel like he has a set turned full house for some reason.... but you may be lucky if its KcQc or something.
What are your stats at this point? Are you unknown to him?
I don't think I mind your line, except for the river shove without the club hitting, I think he calls with a .... But, If I wanted to steal this from him, I'd start by 3-betting preflop.
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"Gotta run well eventually."
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kmind
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Not Giving In
Posts: 4,240
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Im_new
This looks like a trap, especially with his baby sized turn bet. I put him on TT, 55, JJ-KK. I really feel like he has a set turned full house for some reason.... but you may be lucky if its KcQc or something.
What are your stats at this point? Are you unknown to him?
I don't think I mind your line, except for the river shove without the club hitting, I think he calls with a .... But, If I wanted to steal this from him, I'd start by 3-betting preflop.
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I definitely agree with the range you gave him (plus a few more combos of Ax)...
I am unknown, my stats were like 14/14 over the small sample
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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villains call more on ft IMo so i dont give lots of credit to the 'its a set thing' it could easily be a KQs combo draw that doesnt have the balls to commit to the pot on the turn.
Having said that - the river is a horrible card as its boats everything up and nothing folds - if you had a blank or danger card river shove would be better.
I think your opponent had the set or made a hero call with AK - either meaning id want to play more poker with him 
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kmind
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
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miffed - do villains usually c/c 3 streets wtih AK here after being the PFR?
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,837
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at 6m I see this small turn bet alot, trying to buy a cheap river card on a draw. I don't think he's folding JJ-KK if he calls the turn and if he missed a draw he's folding to a smaller bet. I don't think the shove is necessary but it's not a huge difference in betting only $40 and if he folds any pair than I guess you made some money.
I think more than anything your turn raise needs to be a bit bigger, he's calling $16.50 w/$69 still behind so most 1pair and a draws can still call if he thinks your stacking off w/TPTK or less, and you are.
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
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i dunno if i like your turn raise... He's giving you awesome odds to draw, and he could be bettign small with the intention of 3betting which sucks.
also, I think the vast majority of his psb folding range is folding to a 1/2 pot or less river bet.
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3k post - Return of the blog!
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kmind
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
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Yeah completely agree on the river bet sizing. At the time I was like ld0 just bet smallish but then I was like wtf I want to make sure JJ-KK folds, which is a terrible thought process. Reasoning behind the turn raise was because I thought it'd be better to maybe fold out JJ-KK feeling lost in the hand as well as use the extra equity gained. Turn raise might need to be bigger but I guess I made it less because of the river bluff size reasoning.
Note that I am not arguing at all with you guys. I am just trying to throw out my reasoning to see if it's < than y'alls reasoning, which it probably is.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by badgers
I think the vast majority of his psb folding range is folding to a 1/2 pot or less river bet.
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DA9ers
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Two Pair
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 48
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i like folding preflop....these hands play better against more than 1 opponent
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DA9ers
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Two Pair
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 48
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or 3 bet pf...calling being the worst option
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
Posts: 778
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DA9ers
or 3 bet pf...calling being the worst option
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This is wrong on so many levels.
You want to 3bet preflop if you know this guy folds alot 3bet, or if this guy calls alot of 3bets and folds to flop cbets, and there beeing tight players in the blinds. You want to call if this player is a donk, which stacks off to a nice flop, or/and there beeing loose pf players in the blinds, or if you have some huge donks in the blinds. If neither i like to fold
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daven
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
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fold pre, call turn, i don't like the river bet.
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kmind
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by daven
fold pre, call turn, i don't like the river bet.
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can't get off that easily. explain
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by kmind
Quote:
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Originally Posted by daven
fold pre, call turn, i don't like the river bet.
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can't get off that easily. explain |
Who is that girl? is that some kind of porn movie? Mind pm'ing me the link?
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kmind
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
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She's just a girl at jailbaitgallery.com I found yesterday. Don't have a link or anything anymore, sorry  .
I see you at my tables when I play sometimes, hope you are pwning.
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
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Doing pretty well this month
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
Posts: 778
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lol are those girls really underaged? see some girls get fucked that looks like they are 13.. Isnt this illegal 
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daven
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
Posts: 5,813
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by kmind
Quote:
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Originally Posted by daven
fold pre, call turn, i don't like the river bet.
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can't get off that easily. explain |
pre-flop - hero isn't deep enough for this to pay off as +EV, unless you have reads that he stacks off light or gives up OOP. Maybe if there were a couple of callers before you. None of which you have.
Turn - calling with pot-odds is very rarely -ev. Also, you're going to have to fold if he 3-bet shoves cos you're only 25% against his likely range to this point, and even less against his shoving range.
River - So you're repping TT/55, this range is very narrow. If he's folding to the shove then he's folding to $45 and it looks more like a value bet.
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he has KK
ni han
but I haet turn raise
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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he doesn't have KK he has like AQ/AJ almost always
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
Posts: 3,280
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turn raise is dumb spew
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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kmind
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Not Giving In
Posts: 4,240
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spenda - why not KK/QQ?
nuts - why? I mean I can see why calling is +EV but why isn't raising more?
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by kmind
spenda - why not KK/QQ?
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turn yo
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kmind
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
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sigh
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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like we know AJ=KK but he's not thinking that deeply at 100nl FR so I'd expect him to bet/call AQ/AJ and bet/fold KK or even c/f KK.
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kmind
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
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Yeah that's what I got from your last post and I see it now. And all that = sigh because I realized AJ does not equal KK.
Which is what he had...
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
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Boooooo, hope you feel better now:
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Erpel
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 605
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I realise I'm a nooblet, but regarding the turn raise there's one thing that really struck me. I remember a fragment from PNL I read a while back. It was about deciding what to do when facing a bet and you are not the outright favourite against the opponents range. It was structured in a way that was a bit odd to me, but could easily be converted to a simple decision tree like so:
Do you have immediate or implied odds to call? If yes, call.
If no: Do you have a good amount of outs/equity/fold equity? If yes, raise.
If no: Fold.
The interesting thing about this topic was that it seemed to suggest that implied odds tends to trump other ways of extracting value from these kinds of hands.
I feel inspired to go re-read that section when I get home to understand better what it was trying to explain, thanks!
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
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villain check called the flop and led the turn after raising pre. this doesnt strike me as a line that indicates he wants to fold too badly. it would also be retarded and inconsistent of him to do so if he has any type of real hand considering there is not even close to a wide range of value hands for you to represent. we have a big draw now and good implied odds so call rather than committing yourself to a really optimistic thin bluff.
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
Boooooo, hope you feel better now:
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i want these girls
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
Posts: 3,280
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id fuck them so hard
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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