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100NL, AQs in 3 bet pot

  
 
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pokerfan
Old 10-08-2008, 07:46 PM     Post subject: 100NL, AQs in 3 bet pot #1 (permalink)  
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villain is 15/8/2 over 500 hands. I couldnt fold my AQs OOP to his funny min 3 bet preflop. So i flopped nuts flush+overs, should i just call/reevaluate or 3 bet/shove over his big flop c-bet? I noticed that the pot was still not big enough though and any reasonable fold equity here??
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Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A, Q
1 fold, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, MP2 raises to $8, 5 folds, Hero calls $4

Flop: ($17.50) 7, 2, 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $16, Hero ?
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cardsman1992
Old 10-08-2008, 08:06 PM #2 (permalink)  
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badgers
Old 10-08-2008, 08:35 PM #3 (permalink)  
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raisy daisy. Call just seems horrible bad.
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pokerfan
Old 10-08-2008, 09:53 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by badgers
raisy daisy. Call just seems horrible bad.
Lets get this straight. My pot odds if i shove over is 1: 1.18 and pot equity vs QQ+ is 42.6% and 46% vs JJ+. Unless this guy min 3 bet with JJ or play widely vs my UTG raise, a shove doesnt seem justified, right?
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badgers
Old 10-08-2008, 09:55 PM #5 (permalink)  
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so you think you have no fold equity whatsoever and if you call and hit he stacks off 100% of the time?
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pokerfan
Old 10-08-2008, 09:59 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by badgers
so you think you have no fold equity whatsoever and if you call and hit he stacks off 100% of the time?
i'm thinking that the pot is not big enough for a 4 bet shove. Also, his preflop /flop actions indicate that my fold equity is pretty low given his 15/8/2 nitty stats. I'm not sure whether flat call is better or not, seriously.
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badgers
Old 10-08-2008, 10:01 PM #7 (permalink)  
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To elaborate a little, he gave you 25:1 ish implied odds on his stack. If your raising range here is exclusively all of your draws and sets (which because he's repping KK+ so well is probs the case) then he's totally screwed...
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

121,770 games 0.005 secs 24,354,000 games/sec

Board: 2c 6d 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 16.465% 16.46% 00.00% 20049 0.00 { KK+ }
Hand 1: 83.535% 83.54% 00.00% 101721 0.00 { 77-66, 22, AdKd, AdQd }

So either he sucks or you have some FE. Either way, including draws in you c/raise range is hardly a big leak.
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badgers
Old 10-08-2008, 10:04 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerfan
Quote:
Originally Posted by badgers
so you think you have no fold equity whatsoever and if you call and hit he stacks off 100% of the time?
i'm thinking that the pot is not big enough for a 4 bet shove. Also, his preflop /flop actions indicate that my fold equity is pretty low given his 15/8/2 nitty stats. I'm not sure whether flat call is better or not, seriously.
Also if you flat call you aren't always going to get paid off all of the time since your range will now be sets and flushes instead of sets and draws.
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nutsinho
Old 10-08-2008, 11:01 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 just minraise, do the same with AA and sets, and a small pct of the time with a weak draw. make yourself difficult to play against. calling here is an awful play.
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Old 10-08-2008, 11:03 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Fnord
Old 10-09-2008, 12:38 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsinho
just minraise, do the same with AA and sets, and a small pct of the time with a weak draw. make yourself difficult to play against. calling here is an awful play.
Sick. Gotta love low SPR pots....

That said, I'd just make it $40....
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pokerfan
Old 10-09-2008, 02:43 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsinho
just minraise, do the same with AA and sets, and a small pct of the time with a weak draw. make yourself difficult to play against. calling here is an awful play.
Sick. Gotta love low SPR pots....

That said, I'd just make it $40....
Does a flop c/r shove really look like a flush draw? Whats your plan on the turn with a blank turn card if villain just flat our 3 bet ip?
Hmmm, Everything would be much easier if preflop pot was something like $25-30.
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nutsinho
Old 10-09-2008, 04:39 AM #13 (permalink)  
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 if he calls a flop minraise we have 60 left into 80 pot. Go all in!
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BankItDrew
Old 10-09-2008, 05:09 AM #14 (permalink)  
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 play it like you had AA or a set...this will maximize FE

which means... you wouldn't shove, you'd raise a lil bit more (which would look like you want a lil more in the pot)

so I'd put like $30 on top.


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Fnord
Old 10-09-2008, 06:54 AM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerfan
Does a flop c/r shove really look like a flush draw?
It's a more expensive bluff with air than a shove. Threatening all-in without putting it in there is a power move.

The merit behind the min-raise is that it gives him two shitty choices. Either fold to a line that risks the least as a bluff or give up a lot of money folding turns unimproved.
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