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100nl another set multiway

  
 
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daven
Old 12-03-2008, 04:53 AM     Post subject: 100nl another set multiway #1 (permalink)  
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 UTG villain is 17-13 loser over 1k sample. Range varies by position, but still 14-9 UTG. 80% flop c-bet. AK/AQ/AJ/pairs 99-AA/KQs likely range, especially after the flop bet.

Other players in the pot are a 50-4 fish who could do anything, and a 15-9 winning Tag who will be folding most of his range.
Thoughts on raise sizing, i guess I could flat, but any J, Q, or heart will make me unhappy...

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SB ($129)
BB ($101)
UTG ($149.65)
UTG+1 ($106.80)
Hero (MP1) ($103.65)
MP2 ($200)
CO ($112.65)
Button ($145.20)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 10, 10
UTG raises to $3.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $3.50, MP2 calls $3.50, 2 folds, SB calls $3, 1 fold

Flop: ($15) A, 9, 10 (4 players)
SB checks, UTG bets $11, Hero raises to ?,
don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

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Old 12-03-2008, 07:09 AM #2 (permalink)  
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i cant see the suits of the cards but imo a smallish raise is ok, enough to shut down draws from the later position players but tempt UTG to continue with AK, since he doesn't have a good draw here often at all.
$28-30 or so and stack off obviously.

Don't flat plz.
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bikes
Old 12-03-2008, 09:18 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 Just raise, $27 I think suffices, no matter what you do it looks really strong so you might as well raise.
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nutsinho
Old 12-03-2008, 11:08 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 call it
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mcatdog
Old 12-03-2008, 12:33 PM #5 (permalink)  
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I agree with the midstakes donk.

UTG will surely fold AK if you raise the flop. The best ways to get value from your hand are to get UTG to valuetown himself on the turn and river, or to get the fish to come along with dumb hands. Raising doesn't accomplish either of these goals.
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elipsesjeff
Old 12-03-2008, 02:31 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 I definitely agree with nutsinho and mcat. I'd be sure to 'think' before calling, at least on the turn and try to represent AJ/AQ so he will continue to barrel AK.

Question for mike: many times the J, Q, K or heart comes in on the turn and these usually kill our action. If our opponent bets again are we shipping it in to protect our hand from the 4 flush? I think this is more important for the heart coming in and not the JQK scenario.

Lately I've been stacking off when the draw gets there with mixed results and wondering that, after calling the flop, we should avoid getting it AI when they bet strong again on a turn heart. This is of course very weak thinking and so I just get it in anyway.


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Deanglow
Old 12-03-2008, 03:57 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 nah I would raise, i might flat a less drawy board
 
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AFchung
Old 12-03-2008, 04:35 PM #8 (permalink)  
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i'm interested at in why people are flatting this so much? there's a straight and flush draw out there and there's a lot of cards on the turn/river that we are not going to be happy to see
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d0zer
Old 12-03-2008, 05:08 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AFchung
i'm interested at in why people are flatting this so much? there's a straight and flush draw out there and there's a lot of cards on the turn/river that we are not going to be happy to see
I'm going to take a stab at explaining a call, just for the helluvit. My knee would definitely jerk towards raising in the heat of the moment to protect against draws (and value obv), but here's a few arguments for calling (I think):

-Loose donk still left to act will stay in with a wider range, and most of that range we're not really worried about (1pr, 2pr hands). We sacrifice protecting our hand vs the FD, OESD part of his range for more value from the wider range we're not so worried about.

-UTG's range is weighed much heavier towards AK/AQ than it is gutshots, OESDs or flush draws, so we're not too concerned with giving him free cards, and we get more value on later streets by flatting, especially since we have position on the aggressor. A big raise over the PFR'er here will scream 2pr+ or killer draw pretty obviously to the tagg UTG.


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ATOTHEC101
Old 12-03-2008, 09:41 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Deanglow
nah I would raise, i might flat a less drawy board
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BankItDrew
Old 12-03-2008, 09:53 PM #11 (permalink)  
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 I can see where the callers are standing, but I think the surface is too soft.

I certainly call on a less drawing board and pump this flop bet by about 2.5x.


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