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100NL, AK oop facing flop raise

  
 
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pokerfan
Old 04-16-2008, 06:50 PM     Post subject: 100NL, AK oop facing flop raise #1 (permalink)  
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villain is 17.7/5/3.3 over 80 hands. Any commitment plan when facing his flop raise?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (7 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($100)
Hero ($128.65)
MP2 ($104.50)
CO ($88.50)
Button ($104.90)
SB ($126.50)
BB ($133.80)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, A.
1 fold, Hero raises to $4, CO calls $4, 3 folds.

Flop: ($9.50) K, 8, 6 (3 players)
Hero bets $6.5, CO raises to $16.5, Hero ?
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Miffed22001
Old 04-16-2008, 06:59 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 Insta-fold.
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Deanglow
Old 04-16-2008, 07:00 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
Insta-fold.
What? No I don't think so.

I would make a committing a 3-bet and get it allin. It is a small sample of stats and his stack tells me he is a donk.
 
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pokerfan
Old 04-16-2008, 07:01 PM #4 (permalink)  
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really?? are you so nitty that you fear he raised with set? i just meant that we are definitely not committed if we decide to flat call his bet.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
Insta-fold.
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Miffed22001
Old 04-17-2008, 07:21 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 put him on a range.

is he raising the flop with QJdiamonds??

I dont think so.
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jimmy44
Old 04-17-2008, 04:37 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 Let's put villain on hands:
AdKx
AQdd
KQ
T9dd
97dd
KK
88
66

Can someone run pokerstove with these ranges as I don't have it here?

This might indeed be a fold as only 1 hand we are crushing, but we are being crushed by some ...
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spoonitnow
Old 04-17-2008, 06:01 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Deanglow
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
Insta-fold.
What? No I don't think so.

I would make a committing a 3-bet and get it allin. It is a small sample of stats and his stack tells me he is a donk.
I agree 100%.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
put him on a range.

is he raising the flop with QJdiamonds??

I dont think so.
Yes, he is.
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Miffed22001
Old 04-17-2008, 06:58 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonitnow
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deanglow
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
Insta-fold.
What? No I don't think so.

I would make a committing a 3-bet and get it allin. It is a small sample of stats and his stack tells me he is a donk.
I agree 100%.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
put him on a range.

is he raising the flop with QJdiamonds??

I dont think so.
Yes, he is.
im gald you think so, i havent seen it yet
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STHollywood
Old 04-17-2008, 09:22 PM #9 (permalink)  
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a set is possible here obviously and as for QJ of diamonds I think a raise with that hand is totally possible. I raise a lot of my draws on the flop. The issue here is with a set you are totally eating it but with any draws you are doing pretty well unless he has some wicked combo draw like 79d. I would say three-bet, a set or aces will shove here but a draw will most likely only call and then you can decide on the turn. Also a 17/5 probably calls a fair amount of suited connectors in position so I wouldn't put so little weight on that.
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AlexMorris
Old 04-18-2008, 07:16 AM #10 (permalink)  

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I see two options which are equally good in the long run.

1. Raise to $35 with the intention of folding to a shove. If he flat calls and the turn is a non-diamond, you shove.

2. Raise to at least $50 and call a shove (maybe just shove yourself, it really doens't matter). If he flat calls, shove all turns.
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AlexMorris
Old 04-18-2008, 07:19 AM #11 (permalink)  

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Oh, and to answer jimmy44's question:

23,760 games 0.005 secs 4,752,000 games/sec

Board: Kh 8d 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.888% 38.72% 12.17% 9199 2892.00 { AhKd }
Hand 1: 49.112% 36.94% 12.17% 8777 2892.00 { KcKs, 88, 66, AKs, AdQd, KQs, Td9d, 9d7d, AKo, KQo }
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pokerfan
Old 04-18-2008, 07:41 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Are you guys feeling comfortable NOW?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (7 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($100)
Hero ($128.65)
MP2 ($104.50)
CO ($88.50)
Button ($104.90)
SB ($126.50)
BB ($133.80)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, A.
1 fold, Hero raises to $4, CO calls $4, 3 folds.

Flop: ($9.50) K, 8, 6 (3 players)
Hero bets $6.5, CO raises to $16.5, Hero calls $10.

Turn: ($42.50) 9 (3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks.

River: ($42.50) 3 (3 players)
Hero ?
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jimmy44
Old 04-18-2008, 03:39 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AlexMorris
Oh, and to answer jimmy44's question:

23,760 games 0.005 secs 4,752,000 games/sec

Board: Kh 8d 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.888% 38.72% 12.17% 9199 2892.00 { AhKd }
Hand 1: 49.112% 36.94% 12.17% 8777 2892.00 { KcKs, 88, 66, AKs, AdQd, KQs, Td9d, 9d7d, AKo, KQo }
Thanks!
Didn't thought is was 50/50.
Ops I forgot the hands AA & QQ-TT. So this should even more favorable. We need to 3bet to around $40 and call a shove ...

Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerfan
Are you guys feeling comfortable NOW?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (7 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($100)
Hero ($128.65)
MP2 ($104.50)
CO ($88.50)
Button ($104.90)
SB ($126.50)
BB ($133.80)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, A.
1 fold, Hero raises to $4, CO calls $4, 3 folds.

Flop: ($9.50) K, 8, 6 (3 players)
Hero bets $6.5, CO raises to $16.5, Hero calls $10.

Turn: ($42.50) 9 (3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks.

River: ($42.50) 3 (3 players)
Hero ?
The guy has AK (with the A of diamonds)
Bet 1/2 pot and fold to a push.
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Miffed22001
Old 04-18-2008, 09:17 PM #14 (permalink)  
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 c/c something small, otherwise fold.

i think 3betting is spew and calling is worse.
Your opponent isnt even raising a diamond draw 25% of the time here which weighs his had heavily toward splitting with tptk/and being fked versus sets and combo draws.

I think the opponents range is generous on the stove calculation
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