Poker Forum

Over 1,247,000 Posts!

Subscribe to FTR web feed
Already Registered?      Username:    Password:   Remember      Forgot Password
  >    > 

100NL, 99 in some marginal situation

  
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
pokerfan
Old 04-09-2008, 02:24 AM     Post subject: 100NL, 99 in some marginal situation #1 (permalink)  
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
pokerfan
villain is 13.5/8.64/6 over 81 hands. His flop bet sizing really discouraged me from raising. Should i still raise small on flop to define my hand or just flat call and fold to his double barrel when ace comes out?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP2 ($110.85)
MP3 ($96.60)
CO ($137.55)
Hero ($96.50)
SB ($163.70)
BB ($20)
UTG ($85.10)
UTG+1 ($76.30)
MP1 ($106.85)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, 9.
4 folds, MP3 raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero calls $4, 2 folds.

Flop: ($9.50) 8, 2, 2 (2 players)
MP3 bets $7, Hero calls $7.

Turn: ($23.50) A (2 players)
MP3 bets $18, Hero ?
Reply With Quote
Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
aka_red
Old 04-09-2008, 02:29 AM #2 (permalink)  
Moderator

Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: house
Posts: 903
aka_red
i liek to raise here than c/f remainging streets coz hes only calling w/ a bettr hand. plus he may be betting hard if he knows your loose on the button cuz its a pretty dry flop, this being the case maybe his bet size is intentional to discourage you playing back at him? as played i would prolly fold
[11:11] <+bikes> bitches love your face
 
Reply With Quote
JL
Old 04-09-2008, 03:08 AM #3 (permalink)  
Full House

Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 1,095
JL will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by reDZill4
i liek to raise here than c/f remainging streets coz hes only calling w/ a bettr hand.
Why are we raising here if he is only calling with a better hand? Are we turning our pair of nines into a bluff?

Call flop fold turn.
Reply With Quote
BankItDrew
Old 04-09-2008, 03:19 AM #4 (permalink)  
BankItDrew's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
BankItDrew will become famous soon enough
villain has AK or AQ a very high % of the time here. As stated in another thread, raising this flop is key. If you are leading on the flop, it's almost impossible to get any sort of substantial chips on later streets while still leading. So you might as well end the hand on the flop or at worst find out you're dominated right away.
Reply With Quote
pokerfan
Old 04-09-2008, 01:25 PM #5 (permalink)  
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
pokerfan
look his cb sizing, how much more do you want to raise on the flop?
Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
villain has AK or AQ a very high % of the time here. As stated in another thread, raising this flop is key. If you are leading on the flop, it's almost impossible to get any sort of substantial chips on later streets while still leading. So you might as well end the hand on the flop or at worst find out you're dominated right away.
Reply With Quote
GatorJH
Old 04-09-2008, 01:30 PM #6 (permalink)  
GatorJH's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: HotLanta
Posts: 3,179
GatorJH will become famous soon enough
Send a message via AIM to GatorJH
I agree that you have to find out on the flop if this is a standard C-bet with air or a value bet with a big PP.

I make it $21 to go and shut down to any further big action (i.e. - I may call a smallish bet on the river).
Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
 
Reply With Quote
Deanglow
Old 04-09-2008, 02:52 PM #7 (permalink)  
Deanglow's Avatar
Moderator

Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
Deanglow is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by GatorJH
I agree that you have to find out on the flop if this is a standard C-bet with air or a value bet with a big PP.

I make it $21 to go and shut down to any further big action (i.e. - I may call a smallish bet on the river).
Raising to "find out where you're at" is terrible in this spot. He is only continuing on the turn unimproved a very small percentage of the time. The Ace is a great scare card but also hits his range a ton. 1010-KK often decide to check that card to pick-off bluffs so here has either nothing, an ace, or a set.
 
Reply With Quote
martindcx1e
Old 04-09-2008, 03:50 PM #8 (permalink)  
martindcx1e's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
martindcx1e
Quote:
Originally Posted by JL
Quote:
Originally Posted by reDZill4
i liek to raise here than c/f remainging streets coz hes only calling w/ a bettr hand.
Why are we raising here if he is only calling with a better hand? Are we turning our pair of nines into a bluff?

Call flop fold turn.
This. As Dean said, raising solely for info is a leak.
Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
 
Reply With Quote
Pasta
Old 04-09-2008, 04:21 PM #9 (permalink)  

Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 31
Pasta
I like a raise on the flop here also, not "to find out where your at" but for value and to protect your hand. You are way ahead of villain's range, but there are 20 scare cards in the deck and with an AF of 6, I expect villain to use them.

In my experience, villain usually folds to this raise. If he 3-bets or stop and go's the turn, you know your done. The problem with the flop raise is when he calls. Usually he will check the turn to you. If you have a read that villain is a nit that will lay down an overpair, the turn is a good spot for a bluff if he checks. Particularly on this board since villain will call the flop raise w/ KK-TT. Absent a read, I think you have to check behind on the turn, which leaves you in a really tough spot on the river since a lot of villains will fire out here with anything and since its possible they called the flop raise w/ overs. Personally, I'm okay with that because their line is very exploitable if they are doing this with air. If they bet the river here, I will make a note on that villain and will play my sets the same way. If you have seen this villain fire out with air in this spot before, you can profitably call down very light.

So if the flop raise puts us in such a difficult spot on the river, why make it? I think you make it because you probably have the best hand but its extremely vulnerable, and you will usually end the hand right there. Against a villain that likes to 2-barrel, the only other options are to c/f the rest of the way or close your eyes and calldown in some very scary spots. If the villain is passive enough to let you float him here, then that's probably an okay line though I still prefer to protect my hand. Any idea what villain's turn cbet % was here?
Reply With Quote
Ltrain
Old 04-09-2008, 04:53 PM #10 (permalink)  
Ltrain's Avatar
Flush

Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Miami, Florida
Posts: 514
Ltrain
I agree with prior posters. If you are not going to raise the flop, you have to fold the ace turn. If you had taken the agression away from him on the flop, you could bet fold the ace turn.
"Don't judge a man until you have walked a mile in his shoes. Then you are a mile away, and have his shoes." - Anon.
 
Reply With Quote
STHollywood
Old 04-09-2008, 04:57 PM #11 (permalink)  
STHollywood's Avatar
3-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: New York
Posts: 107
STHollywood
Send a message via AIM to STHollywood
I think Pasta is right on. There is really no way to play this further from where you left. In this situation a c-bet is so likely that you are getting serious value from a raise on the flop, if he does call then you are looking at a tricky turn and river but a call on the flop is just not the play
ISF while watching me play: "Wow, you're really butchering this."
 
Reply With Quote
pokerfan
Old 04-09-2008, 05:49 PM #12 (permalink)  
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
pokerfan
only 81 hands without turn AF stats. An unknown villain. After reading you guys posts, i still have no idea which line is the best . Usually, i ended up playing passively with my measely over pairs on this board but i could really see the point of raising here and define our hand well.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pasta
Any idea what villain's turn cbet % was here?
Reply With Quote
Miffed22001
Old 04-09-2008, 05:52 PM #13 (permalink)  
Miffed22001's Avatar
Straight Flush

Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
Miffed22001 is on a distinguished road
if there was a fd on the flop id call and bluff a flush as much as maybe look him sometimes, otherwise id just muck, there will be plenty better oppertunites.
Reply With Quote
pokerfan
Old 04-09-2008, 05:58 PM #14 (permalink)  
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
pokerfan
seriously, i'm thinking that your line is the best and really saves lots of postflop headache.:P . Its amazing that nobody mentioned a fold here, wow.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
if there was a fd on the flop id call and bluff a flush as much as maybe look him sometimes, otherwise id just muck, there will be plenty better oppertunites.
Reply With Quote
martindcx1e
Old 04-09-2008, 06:28 PM #15 (permalink)  
martindcx1e's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
martindcx1e
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pasta
I like a raise on the flop here also, not "to find out where your at" but for value and to protect your hand. You are way ahead of villain's range, but there are 20 scare cards in the deck and with an AF of 6, I expect villain to use them.
for value? so worse hands are calling your flop raise? also, your hand is already protected vs. any draw villain could have. he already bet $7 into a $9.50 pot. he is already being charged to draw. if you are so afraid of cards that may come later then you should just fold now. calling or folding are both acceptable imo, but raising is the worst play.
Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
 
Reply With Quote
Warpe
Old 04-09-2008, 07:09 PM #16 (permalink)  
Warpe's Avatar
Moderator

Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Canuckistan
Posts: 3,905
Warpe is a jewel in the roughWarpe is a jewel in the roughWarpe is a jewel in the roughWarpe is a jewel in the rough
This is such an obvious flop raise I don't know why it's being debated.

We raise to:

Pick off a c-bet. Missed overs are a big part of his range so we'll get a fold a lot.

Protect our hand. There are lots of turn cards we don't want villain to see and what villain voluntarily puts in the pot with his lead is NOT prepayment for us charging him to draw. If he wants to continue with overcards we make him pay MORE to do so.

Information. We raise/he folds/OHIG. We raise/he calls/he reraises/good chance we're smoked so we act accordingly.

As played, we've pissed away all initiative and our position advantage with what stood a very good chance of being the best hand on the flop.
 
Reply With Quote
martindcx1e
Old 04-09-2008, 08:01 PM #17 (permalink)  
martindcx1e's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
martindcx1e
Quote:
Originally Posted by Warpe
his lead is NOT prepayment for us charging him to draw.
why not? it's the same as if he check/called a $7 bet.
Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
 
Reply With Quote
martindcx1e
Old 04-09-2008, 08:05 PM #18 (permalink)  
martindcx1e's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
martindcx1e
I think this is a classic spot where raising is the easiest and most convenient play but not the most +EV.
Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
 
Reply With Quote
Warpe
Old 04-09-2008, 08:27 PM #19 (permalink)  
Warpe's Avatar
Moderator

Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Canuckistan
Posts: 3,905
Warpe is a jewel in the roughWarpe is a jewel in the roughWarpe is a jewel in the roughWarpe is a jewel in the rough
Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
Quote:
Originally Posted by Warpe
his lead is NOT prepayment for us charging him to draw.
why not? it's the same as if he check/called a $7 bet.
This makes no sense.

If I'm villain with AK and c-bet for $7 I'm hoping to take the pot down now
or, at worst, get called and see the turn. If I check and hero bets $7 now I'm paying $7 to draw to my overcards if I call.

Villain takes the initiative by betting. We only take it away by raising.
 
Reply With Quote
pokerfan
Old 04-09-2008, 08:40 PM #20 (permalink)  
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
pokerfan
i hate this spot and fuck my life i just drew the conclusion that whether or not we should raise on this flop really depends on why type of villains we are playing against. Is it all right?
Reply With Quote
martindcx1e
Old 04-09-2008, 08:44 PM #21 (permalink)  
martindcx1e's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
martindcx1e
Quote:
Originally Posted by Warpe
Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
Quote:
Originally Posted by Warpe
his lead is NOT prepayment for us charging him to draw.
why not? it's the same as if he check/called a $7 bet.
This makes no sense.

If I'm villain with AK and c-bet for $7 I'm hoping to take the pot down now
or, at worst, get called and see the turn. If I check and hero bets $7 now I'm paying $7 to draw to my overcards if I call.

Villain takes the initiative by betting. We only take it away by raising.
who cares about initiative if a raise is only called by better hands? also, in your example villain is paying $7 to see a turn either way, which is my point.
Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
 
Reply With Quote
Warpe
Old 04-09-2008, 08:46 PM #22 (permalink)  
Warpe's Avatar
Moderator

Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Canuckistan
Posts: 3,905
Warpe is a jewel in the roughWarpe is a jewel in the roughWarpe is a jewel in the roughWarpe is a jewel in the rough
Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
I think this is a classic spot where raising is the easiest and most convenient play but not the most +EV.
I'd rather make a small EV mistake on early streets than a large EV mistake on later ones. Also, it costs us less/~the same to raise the flop than it does to call down flop and turn. If the turn's a blank here it's harder to fold and we still don't know where we stand.
 
Reply With Quote
Warpe
Old 04-09-2008, 08:55 PM #23 (permalink)  
Warpe's Avatar
Moderator

Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Canuckistan
Posts: 3,905
Warpe is a jewel in the roughWarpe is a jewel in the roughWarpe is a jewel in the roughWarpe is a jewel in the rough
Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
who cares about initiative if a raise is only called by better hands?
There's a pot up for grabs. We don't take it away by calling down. Plus, we add uncertainty about the strength of our holding. We may even get better to fold.
Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
also, in your example villain is paying $7 to see a turn either way, which is my point.
They are not the same thing. DUCY?
 
Reply With Quote
Pasta
Old 04-09-2008, 09:01 PM #24 (permalink)  

Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 31
Pasta
How do you play the turn if you call the flop and:

Turn is an A, opponent bets: So far, everyone agrees fold.
Turn is a K or Q, opponent bets: I'm guessing this is not much better than an A, so we probably fold here too.
Turn is J or 10, opponent bets: Still fold?
Turn is 8 or lower, opponent bets: I am going out on a limb here, but if raising the flop was bad then raising the turn is even worse, so we probably fold here too.

So basically, as long as opponent 2-barrels, we fold. If he checks, we will usually bet and we expect him to fold, but if he calls we are probably beat. How can this possibly be better than raising the flop? We are depending on our opponent to not bet, we are putting the same amount of money in with less FE, while giving him a free card, and if we are called we will probably lose a showdown. If our opponent is really that predictable, we could float w/ ATc here for the almost the same result - why would we reduce our overpair to ATc?
Reply With Quote
martindcx1e
Old 04-09-2008, 09:01 PM #25 (permalink)  
martindcx1e's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
martindcx1e
Quote:
Originally Posted by Warpe
There's a pot up for grabs.
do you bet/raise KK on dry A-hi flops cuz there's a pot up for grabs?
Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
 
Reply With Quote
reprisal
Old 04-09-2008, 09:06 PM #26 (permalink)  
3-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 106
reprisal
Raising and winning right here sounds like a pretty good result, even if we have to shut down when called. If you just call the flop bet, you're basically just hoping he villain shuts down. If he fires on almost any turn we probably need to think about folding.
Reply With Quote
BankItDrew
Old 04-09-2008, 09:11 PM #27 (permalink)  
BankItDrew's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
BankItDrew will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerfan
look his cb sizing, how much more do you want to raise on the flop?
Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
villain has AK or AQ a very high % of the time here. As stated in another thread, raising this flop is key. If you are leading on the flop, it's almost impossible to get any sort of substantial chips on later streets while still leading. So you might as well end the hand on the flop or at worst find out you're dominated right away.
2.5 - 3x bet
Reply With Quote
martindcx1e
Old 04-09-2008, 09:13 PM #28 (permalink)  
martindcx1e's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
martindcx1e
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pasta
If he checks, we will usually bet and we expect him to fold, but if he calls we are probably beat.
same as raising the flop except we aren't as sure that he will fold to a flop raise as we are when he checks the turn.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pasta
How can this possibly be better than raising the flop? We are depending on our opponent to not bet, we are putting the same amount of money in with less FE
i think we have more FE on the turn if he checks. 2 barrelling with missed AK certainly isn't the norm for low stakes games.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pasta
while giving him a free card
he paid $7 to see it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pasta
and if we are called we will probably lose a showdown.
same as raising the flop.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pasta
If our opponent is really that predictable, we could float w/ ATc here for the almost the same result - why would we reduce our overpair to ATc?
same as raising the flop. raising the flop is pretty much a bluff.
Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
 
Reply With Quote
Ltrain
Old 04-09-2008, 09:15 PM #29 (permalink)  
Ltrain's Avatar
Flush

Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Miami, Florida
Posts: 514
Ltrain
Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
Quote:
Originally Posted by Warpe
Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
Quote:
Originally Posted by Warpe
his lead is NOT prepayment for us charging him to draw.
why not? it's the same as if he check/called a $7 bet.
This makes no sense.

If I'm villain with AK and c-bet for $7 I'm hoping to take the pot down now
or, at worst, get called and see the turn. If I check and hero bets $7 now I'm paying $7 to draw to my overcards if I call.

Villain takes the initiative by betting. We only take it away by raising.
who cares about initiative if a raise is only called by better hands? also, in your example villain is paying $7 to see a turn either way, which is my point.
Because hands we beat now but could lose to on later streets we want to fold and missed overcards are very, if not most, likely. For example, A,K and and ace hits the turn....sounds familiar..... This flop does not have draw potential, we are ahead or behind, and 9,9 beats most of his range. If he 3 bets us on the flop, I could find a fold. If he checkraises us on the turn, I could find a fold. Passive against this villian only works if the cards stay low, we chose a passive line and got hit with a bad card on the turn, he kept on the agression, we now need to follow our line and fold.
"Don't judge a man until you have walked a mile in his shoes. Then you are a mile away, and have his shoes." - Anon.
 
Reply With Quote
Ltrain
Old 04-09-2008, 09:17 PM #30 (permalink)  
Ltrain's Avatar
Flush

Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Miami, Florida
Posts: 514
Ltrain
Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
Quote:
Originally Posted by Warpe
There's a pot up for grabs.
do you bet/raise KK on dry A-hi flops cuz there's a pot up for grabs?
I wouldn't have gotten that far because I would have 3 bet him pf with K,K here. If an Ace hits I c-bet it heavy on the flop and fold if this particular villian checkraises the flop all in.
"Don't judge a man until you have walked a mile in his shoes. Then you are a mile away, and have his shoes." - Anon.
 
Reply With Quote
pokerfan
Old 04-09-2008, 09:18 PM #31 (permalink)  
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
pokerfan
Only when we play against straightforward passive villains can we flat call and fold to his double barrel on the turn. There are also many times we can see a cheap showdown and win the pot vs this type of villains.
99 is just too vulnerable to play slowly on this flop vs most evil villains.
Reply With Quote
Pasta
Old 04-09-2008, 09:25 PM #32 (permalink)  

Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 31
Pasta
Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
do you bet/raise KK on dry A-hi flops cuz there's a pot up for grabs?
I cbet that all day, every day against most opponents. I probably have the best hand and the flop nailed my range, but if I check I am asking my opponent to take me off my hand. Plus I will occasionally fold out Axs that didn't catch a draw. What else could you do? Check/fold? Call 2-3 streets blind? Call the first street but assume the next bet is for value and not our opponent sensing weakness?

You don't have the option of either betting or checking down to the river. Unless you are going to c/f, you are going to have to call at least one bet. I would much rather be the one making that bet, because I gain a little FE against a few better hands and a lot of information. And even on a dry board, our opponent may have a piece of it with a weak chance to outdraw us, so we may be protecting our hand.
Reply With Quote
martindcx1e
Old 04-09-2008, 09:29 PM #33 (permalink)  
martindcx1e's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
martindcx1e
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pasta
Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
do you bet/raise KK on dry A-hi flops cuz there's a pot up for grabs?
I cbet that all day, every day against most opponents.
this is bad. i will find a good thread for you to read. gimme a min...

here
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...?highlight=ace
Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
 
Reply With Quote
pokerfan
Old 04-09-2008, 09:34 PM #34 (permalink)  
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
pokerfan
we definitely check our KK on ace flop in 3 bet pot vs most villains, totally different from this situation(99 on 8 high paired flop facing big cb).
Reply With Quote
martindcx1e
Old 04-09-2008, 09:35 PM #35 (permalink)  
martindcx1e's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
martindcx1e
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerfan
we definitely check our KK on ace flop in 3 bet pot, totally different from this situation.
i was just quizzing lol...although in both you still are only called by better.
Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
 
Reply With Quote
pokerfan
Old 04-09-2008, 09:45 PM #36 (permalink)  
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
pokerfan
we dont have to bet/raise and define our hand with KK on ace high flop especially in 3 bet pot. If we just call with 99 on this 8 high flop vs tricky aggressive villains, we really step into the darkness without knowing whether we are ahead or not and often end up folding in later streets like i did in this hand.
Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerfan
we definitely check our KK on ace flop in 3 bet pot, totally different from this situation.
i was just quizzing lol...although in both you still are only called by better.
Reply With Quote
martindcx1e
Old 04-09-2008, 09:55 PM #37 (permalink)  
martindcx1e's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
martindcx1e
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerfan
we dont have to bet/raise and define our hand with KK on ace high flop especially in 3 bet pot. If we just call with 99 on this 8 high flop vs tricky aggressive villains, we really step into the darkness without knowing whether we are ahead or not and often end up folding in later streets like i did in this hand.
Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerfan
we definitely check our KK on ace flop in 3 bet pot, totally different from this situation.
i was just quizzing lol...although in both you still are only called by better.
if we just call a bet with KK on a dry A-hi flop we don't really know if we are ahead or not either.
Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
 
Reply With Quote
Ltrain
Old 04-09-2008, 10:00 PM #38 (permalink)  
Ltrain's Avatar
Flush

Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Miami, Florida
Posts: 514
Ltrain
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerfan
we definitely check our KK on ace flop in 3 bet pot vs most villains, totally different from this situation(99 on 8 high paired flop facing big cb).
I don't necessarily agree with a flop check here in your KK situation, although I understand where you are going in terms of not being called by hands you beat and inducing bluffs. There are still two streets left and I would c-bet it anyway, if not because I would play paired aces the same way. If he calls, I could see checking the turn and calling a river for pot control. If you check the flop you still have two streets you would have to call if he bets into you, which he should do on both streets if he paired his ace.
"Don't judge a man until you have walked a mile in his shoes. Then you are a mile away, and have his shoes." - Anon.
 
Reply With Quote
martindcx1e
Old 04-09-2008, 10:09 PM #39 (permalink)  
martindcx1e's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
martindcx1e
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ltrain
I would c-bet it anyway
read the thread i linked to. cbetting that is bad.
Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
 
Reply With Quote
Pasta
Old 04-09-2008, 10:27 PM #40 (permalink)  

Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 31
Pasta
It is not always a mistake to make a bet/raise that only better hands will call if there are more cards to come, because it can protect your hand.

Given a reasonable range for our opponent, we have about 59% pot equity on the flop:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.601% 58.17% 00.43% 66802 495.00 { 9h9s }
Hand 1: 41.399% 40.97% 00.43% 47048 495.00 { 55+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }

Now lets assume our opponent really is very predictable so he will fold all worse hands to our flop raise or turn bet, and will usually only bet on the turn w/ TT-AA or if his hand has improved. Lets ignore the times we catch a 9 on the turn, since this helps both lines. He will only fire a 2nd barrel with a worse hand 15% of the time. If we call the flop, we will fold on the turn 46% of the time:

hands relative probability Chance of turn bet
36 55-77 0.156521739 0.205434783 0.032155009
6 88 0.026086957 1 0.026086957
128 Aj+,KQ 0.556521739 0.260869565 0.145179584
60 TT-AA 0.260869565 1 0.260869565
230 0.464291115 Overall chance of turn bet


Then the EV on our flop call is +5.6. If instead we raise the flop, he will fold 71% of the time and our EV is +5.7, even if we assume we have no showdown value and we ignore the times we catch a 9 on the river. And this is against a very predictable opponent. If our opponent 2-barrels 30% of the time with a worse hand, our EV from the flop call drops to +3.4, and at 50% we make nothing other than the possibility of catching a 9 on the turn. Add in the possibility of a c/r or c/c on the turn from an aware opponent that suspects you of floating and this gets ugly fast. But I think your right pokerfan, if we really have an opponent that will very rarely 2-barrel w/o the goods here (10% of the time or less), then calling the flop on a DRY board is probably a good play.
Reply With Quote
pokerfan
Old 04-09-2008, 11:59 PM #41 (permalink)  
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
pokerfan
Another question is what percentage of the time you guys will 3 bet on the button vs this villain's lp open raising range (23% attention to steal)?
I agree with Pasta that our hand is probably ahead of our opponent's range on the flop.
Reply With Quote
elipsesjeff
Old 04-10-2008, 12:32 AM #42 (permalink)  
elipsesjeff's Avatar
Moderator

Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
elipsesjeff is an unknown quantity at this point
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerfan
Another question is what percentage of the time you guys will 3 bet on the button vs this villain's lp open raising range (23% attention to steal)?
I agree with Pasta that our hand is probably ahead of our opponent's range on the flop.
This is probably a better discussion opportunity han the original question posed by the OP.


Check out my videos at Grinderschool.com

More Full Ring NLHE Cash videos than ANY other poker training site. Training starts at $10/month.
 
Reply With Quote
Ltrain
Old 04-10-2008, 01:11 AM #43 (permalink)  
Ltrain's Avatar
Flush

Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Miami, Florida
Posts: 514
Ltrain
Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ltrain
I would c-bet it anyway
read the thread i linked to. cbetting that is bad.
I had seen that thread before, but there are two assumptions in the thread that do not apply:

1. first round of a SNG, you bust you are out; and
2. No one without an ace will call.

More to point 2, if the flop is ace, little rags with no draws, a TAG reg with a mid pocket pair does not always fold the flop, if I c-bet, he knows I am cbetting almost every time. I can check the turn to induce a river bluff; I accomplish the same goal as specified by the thread but with more pot control by eliminating a street. Put yourself in villian's shoes, you have J,J... A,3,6 rags, are you autofolding my c-bet? Are you checkraising me or trying to push me off my hand? For most 100NL TAG regs, I think the answer is no.
"Don't judge a man until you have walked a mile in his shoes. Then you are a mile away, and have his shoes." - Anon.
 
Reply With Quote
pgil
Old 04-10-2008, 04:12 AM #44 (permalink)  
Full House

Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,103
pgil
Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ltrain
I would c-bet it anyway
read the thread i linked to. cbetting that is bad.
the big difference here is that we are not in a WA/WB situation because villain likely has 6 outs, and has a number more that he can represent.

why let him draw to his overs for $7 when we can make him pay more or fold? also, don't forget that he does still have equity in this pot, and we make money when he folds his equity. especially when we will be in a lot of bad spots on a lot of turn/river cards.
"If you can't say f*ck, you can't say f*ck the government" - Lenny Bruce
 
Reply With Quote
bjsaust
Old 04-10-2008, 04:16 AM #45 (permalink)  
bjsaust's Avatar
Straight Flush

Join Date: May 2007
Location: Ballarat, Australia
Posts: 5,842
bjsaust is on a distinguished road
Send a message via MSN to bjsaust
Whats wrong with raising to protect our hand? Why do we not want to take the pot down now when there are so many scare cards that can come on the turn, and villian will be 2-barrelling almost 100% of the time regardless.
Just playing to improve.
 
Reply With Quote
pgil
Old 04-10-2008, 04:17 AM #46 (permalink)  
Full House

Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,103
pgil
Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerfan
Another question is what percentage of the time you guys will 3 bet on the button vs this villain's lp open raising range (23% attention to steal)?
I agree with Pasta that our hand is probably ahead of our opponent's range on the flop.
This is probably a better discussion opportunity han the original question posed by the OP.
I like to see him raise from a steal position a couple of times before 3betting light. More importantly is how does he react to 3bets? if he is calling to hit a flop, or folding, then be more inclined to do it. If he is capable of CRing on a bluff, then be less likely to 3bet light.

23% is not a particularly high att to steal, so I wouldn't necessarily be licking my lips every time he opens from LP, but I would definitely be 3betting a couple of times in a standard session.

Also keep in mind that postflop tendencies can sway you from a light preflop 3bet to a float flop/raise cbet line given that you have position.
"If you can't say f*ck, you can't say f*ck the government" - Lenny Bruce
 
Reply With Quote
martindcx1e
Old 04-10-2008, 04:32 AM #47 (permalink)  
martindcx1e's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
martindcx1e
Quote:
Originally Posted by bjsaust
and villian will be 2-barrelling almost 100% of the time regardless.
no
Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
 
Reply With Quote
martindcx1e
Old 04-10-2008, 04:36 AM #48 (permalink)  
martindcx1e's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
martindcx1e
Quote:
Originally Posted by pgil
Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ltrain
I would c-bet it anyway
read the thread i linked to. cbetting that is bad.
the big difference here is that we are not in a WA/WB
ya i know i was just curious what he would do bc of the way he was talking.

i may be starting to come around on this one guys. it still just feels so wrong to raise when i know only better hands call. i will def give this more thought though.
Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
 
Reply With Quote
BankItDrew
Old 04-10-2008, 04:51 AM #49 (permalink)  
BankItDrew's Avatar
4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
BankItDrew will become famous soon enough
I don't really understand something. This something is: How are you possibly 4 betting AK preflop? I mean, the 3 bet is rarely less than ace high.


Girlfriend:
Why are the werewolves more important than living life?!

Girlfriend:
Are you on the forums doing the werewolves again?

Girlfriend:
Soo... you forgot to run that errand, but you had time to werewolf? Wtf?
 
Reply With Quote
Miffed22001
Old 04-10-2008, 06:26 AM #50 (permalink)  
Miffed22001's Avatar
Straight Flush

Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
Miffed22001 is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by Warpe
This is such an obvious flop raise I don't know why it's being debated.

We raise to:

Pick off a c-bet. Missed overs are a big part of his range so we'll get a fold a lot.

Protect our hand. There are lots of turn cards we don't want villain to see and what villain voluntarily puts in the pot with his lead is NOT prepayment for us charging him to draw. If he wants to continue with overcards we make him pay MORE to do so.

Information. We raise/he folds/OHIG. We raise/he calls/he reraises/good chance we're smoked so we act accordingly.

As played, we've pissed away all initiative and our position advantage with what stood a very good chance of being the best hand on the flop.
you are allowing our opponent to play his hand perfectly if you do this. hence calling is better.
Reply With Quote
Reply
Latest Poker News
KoRnholio Old 05-26-2012, 03:08 PM    Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
According to an email sent out by Mark Bryan, a gaming analyst at Merrill Lynch, the Australian government plans to legalize online poker sometime in the next six to 12 months. This move will coincide ...

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On



All times are GMT. The time now is 03:03 AM.


FTR Testimonials

All content
© FlopTurnRiver.com
Advertising  |   Partners  |   Testimonials  |   T&C  |   Contact Us  |   FTR News & Press  |   Site Map  |   Search FTR

Full Tilt  |   Titan Poker  |   UltimateBet  |   Poker Stars  |   Ladbrokes Bonus  |   Sportsbook  |   Cake Poker  

Play Texas Holdem Online, Online Texas Holdem Strategy, & Poker Forum
This is not a gambling website.