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100nl - 160bb deep vs TAG - Disclaimer: ITT I c/f a flush

  
 
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Micro2Macro
Old 10-07-2009, 06:17 PM     Post subject: 100nl - 160bb deep vs TAG - Disclaimer: ITT I c/f a flush #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain is new to 100nl. He has quickly moved from 25nl-50nl-100nl and I've played with him at each stake. Fairly solid for the most part, 16/13/3 with a 35ish ATS, 4% 3bet. Doesn't really get out of line much though he's pretty aggressive postflop, cbets too much, however I've seen him miss major value on the river in a few spots against huge fish.

New DB, I only have 550 hands on him now and lost some notes. We have 3b/4b each other a bit in the past but haven't gotten to far out of line.

His cbet % is 83%. I plan on c/ring a decent amout of flops, and floating oop a bit if I can find some good spots. The BB is a huge nit and I never expect him to squeeze here without the nuts so I think I'm okay with my call pre - would be interested if anyone disagrees here. Sometimes I'll 3bet but given the stacks, the BB, and how villain plays postflop I felt calling was best.


$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($105.25)
UTG+1 ($101)
MP1 ($112.35)
MP2 ($40.50)
MP3 ($161.60)
CO ($102.70)
BTN ($46.55)
Hero ($208.10)
BB ($107.60)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 9 players) Hero is SB
4 folds, MP3 raises to $4, 2 folds, Hero calls $3.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($9, 2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $6, Hero raises to $20, MP3 calls $14

Turn: ($49, 2 players)
Hero bets $28, MP3 calls $28

River: ($105, 2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $70, Hero folds

When he called my c/r I felt like I could eliminate sets from his range because I'm sure he'd try and get it in, especially since my range will consist of draws often. I'm not sure if he'd fold top pair or an overpair right away on the flop, but I think we can assume he's going to call my c/r and possibly one more street.

I felt better fd's were a significant part of his range because we're a bit deep for him to be shipping them over my c/r (I think he would be aware of this) so when he flats with say Adxd he keeps in all my draws he dominates.

Also I dunno about my sizing at all...I bet smallish on the turn to try and get another street from Qx that perhaps peeled my c/r. Perhaps instead of checking the river a blocking bet would have been better. Not sure I'd ever get 3 streets from 1 pair though given my line. I figured I could check and see Qx check back and likely not turn his hand into a bluff, though if I jam river I doubt he ever calls with enough worse hands, so I can't really value bet.

Maybe this is standard I dunno, I'm usually the one making hero calls though rather than hero folds so this may just be awful. Would like to hear some input on what you guys think of his range.
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

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Micro2Macro
Old 10-07-2009, 06:19 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 inb4
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

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badgers
Old 10-07-2009, 06:57 PM #3 (permalink)  
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This is absolutely horrible. I was hoping at least that the board would be paired...

Pre is meh.

Turn sizing is small.... I would like to bet turn bigger to set up a shove and even if we're not shipping a river a bigger bet gets more value from 22/44

Most importantly, why the hell aren't you betting the river? I'm totally ok with bet/folding like $50 or so as played. c/f is just awful though, he could be valuebetting worse.......
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Micro2Macro
Old 10-07-2009, 07:20 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 I figured he re-raise sets often enough on the flop. Maybe we could say 2/3 of the time he'd re-raise and the rest just call? Thus I only included 22 in this range to show that. This also only includes suited combo's of AQ because he should be able to get away from them on the turn maybe?

Board: Qd 4c 2d 7d As
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.462% 38.46% 00.00% 5 0.00 { Td9d }
Hand 1: 61.538% 61.54% 00.00% 8 0.00 { 22, AdKd, AQs, AdJd, Ad8d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, KdJd }

His range could have a few more better Flushes but a few worse ones as well so they just cancel each other out.


Now if we widen his range its a shove: This is assuming he'll continue with all AQ combo's, still assuming he re-raises sets on the flop the majority of the time.

oard: Qd 4c 2d 7d As
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.000% 60.00% 00.00% 12 0.00 { Td9d }
Hand 1: 40.000% 40.00% 00.00% 8 0.00 { 22, AdKd, AQs, AdJd, Ad8d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, KdJd, AQo }


The thing is I've seen him check back here in spots like this with 1 pair and im not really sure he's even value betting AQ. Guess checking sucks horribly. It really comes down to how light he's peeling my flop+turn bets and as played I think I sized my turn bet in a way that does get peeled light, and with that, his range is probably more likely on the wide end of the spectrum which should allow us to value bet. I might be also making a poor assumption abuot him trying to felt sets most of the time on the flop, he could be just peeling with them more than I think.
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

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http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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bikes
Old 10-07-2009, 10:13 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 this is abso awful. I hate every street
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pokerfan
Old 10-07-2009, 10:32 PM #6 (permalink)  
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whats the point of calling preflop OOP and c/folding your made flush when you show weakness and induce on the river ? I cant really understand this hand B/F >>>>>>c/f
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Deanglow
Old 10-07-2009, 10:55 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 What the hell are you doing? Bet like $36 on the turn and shove the river.
 
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Old 10-07-2009, 10:56 PM #8 (permalink)  
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I think he's probably calling 22 almost all the time this deep. 44 some of the time. You forgot to add 54d, 65d and 86d into his range, also AdAx.

You have played this guy more than me so your range may be better, but if that is the case you need to look at your flop c/r. If he's 3betting all hands that we have decent implied odds against then c/r is terrible since we essentially have to fold to a 3bet. If he's really playing how you have suggested then the flop is the mistake. Either way you've messed this hand up in a big way somewhere along the line!
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Miffed22001
Old 10-08-2009, 12:57 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by badgers
I think he's probably calling 22 almost all the time this deep. 44 some of the time. You forgot to add 54d, 65d and 86d into his range, also AdAx.

You have played this guy more than me so your range may be better, but if that is the case you need to look at your flop c/r. If he's 3betting all hands that we have decent implied odds against then c/r is terrible since we essentially have to fold to a 3bet. If he's really playing how you have suggested then the flop is the mistake. Either way you've messed this hand up in a big way somewhere along the line!
he forgot to c/r all in on the river...
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Micro2Macro
Old 10-08-2009, 01:50 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by badgers
I think he's probably calling 22 almost all the time this deep. 44 some of the time. You forgot to add 54d, 65d and 86d into his range, also AdAx.

You have played this guy more than me so your range may be better, but if that is the case you need to look at your flop c/r. If he's 3betting all hands that we have decent implied odds against then c/r is terrible since we essentially have to fold to a 3bet. If he's really playing how you have suggested then the flop is the mistake. Either way you've messed this hand up in a big way somewhere along the line!
thanks for this reply I know exactly why every street is terrible now.
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

Check out my blog here!

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http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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Deanglow
Old 10-08-2009, 04:19 AM #11 (permalink)  
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 checkraising the flop is fine, assuming you are folding to a 3bet. But once you hit you can't just checkfold...
 
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